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2027 Election: Why It Would Be Difficult For Tinubu – Fresh Analysis Predicts Possible Results
The race for the 2027 elections in Nigeria has clearly begun this year, with key political stakeholders aligning themselves and defecting to parties they believe will enhance their chances of success.
Atiku Abubakar remains a prominent contender in the presidential race, but he is not alone. Other candidates, including Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and even former President Goodluck Jonathan, are emerging with a common goal to unseat Tinubu in 2027.


Given the current economic climate and the rising cost of living, it is undeniable that a significant portion of Nigerians would prefer to vote for an alternative candidate rather than pledge their support for Tinubu again.
While some of Tinubu’s tough decisions are producing results, this understanding is largely confined to those with a deeper grasp of economics—a far cry from the average citizen who is simply trying to make ends meet.
Political opponents are capitalizing on the existing hardships to secure votes for the 2027 elections, and many affected households are desperately seeking relief from their struggles.
However, if the landscape changes substantially—perhaps by 50%—due to ongoing transformations across various sectors, no amount of campaigning or propaganda could thwart Tinubu’s chances for reelection in 2027.
Candidates like Peter Obi and Goodluck Jonathan are unlikely to command even 30% of the votes in the South-South region; both are headed for a stalemate.
Meanwhile, Tinubu’s initiatives and the support of governors and senators keen on retaining their political offices will guarantee a decisive victory for the president. With Akpabio at the helm of the National Assembly and his influence in the Southern zone, Tinubu can expect over 70% of the votes.
In the North, while Tinubu may face challenges in Kano due to Rabiu Kwankwaso’s influence, he will ultimately split the votes between Atiku and Kwankwaso, thereby undermining Atiku’s chances. With the backing of numerous northern governors, Tinubu is poised to secure around 30% of the votes in that region, leaving Atiku, Kwankwaso, Jonathan, and Obi to divide the remainder.
Turning to the East, although Tinubu received 25% of the votes last election, Peter Obi’s sway has diminished significantly due to the crises plaguing the Labour Party. Many Igbo citizens are disillusioned with Obi’s political instability, leading to a fragmentation of his support base.
Tinubu’s connections with the governors of Anambra, Abia, Imo, and Enugu will guarantee a substantial victory for the APC, as several of these governors have already pledged their support for the president in the upcoming election. Atiku stands no chance in the Southeast, and Jonathan lacks the political clout to garner votes.
In the Southwest, Tinubu’s victory is assured across all states, including Osun, where Rauf Aregbesola, once a political ally, now poses no real threat to the APC’s dominance. The only state where Tinubu might face a substantial loss is Kwara, due to internal conflicts among some APC members, which could potentially give the PDP an advantage.
For political reasons, it will be difficult for Tinubu to lose the 2027 election to opponents like Atiku, Jonathan, Kwankwaso and Peter Obi except the four of them come as one even that it still be the difficult for other reasons.
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PDP Chieftain Reveals What Wike Said About Governor Fubara’s Second Term
A chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Umar Sani, has revealed details of a private conversation he had with the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, regarding the political future of Siminalayi Fubara, the governor of Rivers State.
Sani made the disclosure during an interview on Symfoni TV while commenting on the ongoing political tension in the state and growing speculation about whether Governor Fubara will seek a second term in office.
According to the PDP chieftain, Wike has deliberately chosen not to discuss the issue publicly.
He said the former Rivers governor made it clear that he does not want to be drawn into conversations about the governor’s political future.
Sani said the FCT minister believes that raising such discussions too early could trigger unnecessary arguments within the party and create divisions among supporters.
He explained that debates about re-election or succession often become sensitive when they begin long before party primaries or official political processes start.
According to him, premature political conversations can cause confusion within a party. Members may begin to interpret statements differently. That situation, he noted, can weaken internal unity and distract leaders from governance.
He said: “Wike recently told me that nobody should ask him whether Fubara is going to do a second term or not. This is to avoid premature debates that can scatter the party. For now, the people of Rivers State are watching closely, hoping that this political ‘robasese’ does not stop the development of the state. Wike is keeping his cards close to his chest.”
Sani added that experienced political leaders often prefer to wait until the appropriate time before discussing candidates or succession matters. According to him, such restraint helps prevent internal conflicts and keeps the focus on governance.
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JUST IN: Tinubu Holds Closed-Door Meeting With Service Chiefs, IGP
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Thursday convened a nearly two-hour security meeting with service chiefs at the Presidential Villa, marking the first such gathering since Tunji Disu assumed office as Inspector-General of Police.
According to reports, the service chiefs arrived at the Villa without their usual official vehicles, making them difficult to identify, and left the premises at approximately 5:10 pm after extended deliberations with the President.
The chiefs and the IGP were later identified as they exited the forecourt following the closed-door session.
The meeting comes amid rising security concerns nationwide, particularly following recent killings of military commanding officers in various operational theatres.
In the past week alone, the military lost at least three commanding officers in charge of forward operating bases, following a surge of attacks on security formations and personnel, especially in the North-East where Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province insurgents have intensified assaults.
Notable incidents include the attack on Ngoshe in Borno State, which resulted in abductions, as well as separate attacks on Konduga, Marte, Jakana, and Mainok, all in Borno State.
Thursday’s security meeting is IGP Disu’s first formal engagement with the President and service chiefs since his appointment on February 28, 2026, following the resignation of his predecessor.
While details of the discussions have not been publicly disclosed, the meeting likely focused on the recent spike in attacks on security personnel, the vulnerability of communities in the North-East, and coordination among security agencies.
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Abuja Polls: Tension At Collation Centre As Party Agents Reject Results, Clash With INEC
There was a tense tension at a ward collation centre in Garki, Abuja, following a dispute between party agents and officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission over the handling of councillorship election results. The disagreement started during the collation of votes for the councillorship contest. Party agents accused electoral officials of blocking access to the result sheets before announcing the final figures.
Witnesses at the centre said party representatives were earlier allowed to cross-check figures for the chairmanship election. This process was reportedly carried out calmly and in line with procedure. However, the atmosphere changed when officials moved to declare councillorship results without permitting agents to verify the numbers with their own records.
The move triggered loud protests and heated exchanges inside the collation hall. Several agents insisted that the same level of transparency given during the chairmanship collation should apply to the councillorship exercise. One aggrieved party agent openly challenged the officials and demanded that the figures be reviewed before any declaration was made.
“Sir, we disagree with this final figures. Let’s confirm them with our record. You were there when during the chairmanship, they brought the figures, we checked, so can’t they allow us to do the same for councillorship? They just declare it like that without us checking the figures?” the agent said.
He added, “We disagree with these figures, let’s check them. Who does that? Let’s see it.”
The confrontation briefly disrupted the collation process and caused confusion among voters and party supporters present at the centre. The incident is one of several disputes recorded during the Federal Capital Territory Area Council elections, which have been marked by complaints of procedural lapses, delays and low voter turnout in some wards.
Meanwhile, early results released from the chairmanship elections show that the All Progressives Congress has taken the lead in key councils. The party has so far secured victories in Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), Bwari Area Council and Kwali Area Council. Two other chairmanship results are still being awaited.
The Peoples Democratic Party won the Gwagwalada Area Council seat.
In AMAC, APC candidate Christopher Maikalangu polled 40,295 votes to defeat his closest challenger from the African Democratic Congress, who scored 12,109 votes. The PDP candidate recorded 3,398 votes. Maikalangu is the incumbent chairman.
In Bwari Area Council, APC’s Joshua Ishaku emerged winner with 18,466 votes. The ADC candidate came second with 4,254 votes, while the Zenith Labour Party candidate secured 3,515 votes.
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