“We remain committed to advocating for policies that strengthen transparency and fairness. We call on all stakeholders to support the President’s reform agenda for the benefit of all Nigerians,” Uwaleke concluded.
Business
‘I invested In A Ponzi Scheme’: Nigerians Fall Victim To Crypto Scams
Experts say financial illiteracy, lax regulations, greed and economic hardship make people susceptible to scam companies.
Lagos, Nigeria — Mandela Fadahunsi, who works at a technical training school in Ikeja in Nigeria’s Lagos, never believed he could fall victim to a Ponzi scheme.
On April 6, the 26-year-old was starting his day when a WhatsApp notification lit up his phone screen. Someone on the group chat for investors of the cryptocurrency investment platform, Crypto Bridge Exchange (CBEX), had tried and failed to withdraw some funds, so they wanted to confirm if it was a general issue. Fadahunsi quickly logged on to his digital wallet and tried to withdraw 500 USDT, a cryptocurrency that stands for United States Dollar Tether, or simply Tether.
But 24 hours later, a process that should have taken just 10 minutes was yet to complete. He knew then that something had gone wrong. He started to panic, but half-hoped it was just a glitch or a minor system error.
“They [CBEX administrators] said it was as a result of the excessive volume of people trying to withdraw, and that all withdrawals have been placed on hold until 15th of April,” Fadahunsi told Al Jazeera.
On the 15th, he and fellow investors waited but heard nothing. On subsequent days, the administrators gave more excuses until the site stopped working altogether, and everyone’s money disappeared without a trace. That is when he realised he had been scammed and might never be able to recover the 4,596 USDT stablecoin in his wallet.
While Fadahunsi tallied his losses, the issue went viral on social media platforms.
Many more Nigerians shared their stories of loss, while others mocked them for losing their money to scammers. Some members of the public, filled with rage, attacked and ransacked CBEX offices in Ibadan and Lagos.
CBEX launched operations in Nigeria in July 2024, claiming to be able to generate immense trading profits using generative artificial intelligence. By January, it had gained serious popularity through referrals and smart advertising.
Fadahunsi and thousands of other people invested with the hope of making a maximum profit – the scheme promised up to 100 percent return on investment after a 40- to 45-day maturation period. At the start, the scheme did pay out, and the testimonies of successful initial investors attracted more people to sign up.
But after nine months of operation, the music stopped as the platform made away with an estimated 1.3 trillion naira ($840m), according to the official Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU). It left investors stunned.
Nigeria’s anticorruption agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), has since labelled CBEX a Ponzi scheme. Experts say the organisers of such scams usually promise to invest people’s money in something that generates high returns, but in reality, it is investment fraud that pays existing investors with funds collected from new ones. Once a large number of people cash out, and new investors into the scheme dry up, it collapses.
Ponzi schemes, including CBEX, are usually not backed by any discernible economic activity, experts say. According to Ikemesit Effiong, from the Lagos-based socioeconomic advisory firm, SBM Intelligence, most times these businesses do not have anything to sell and have no recognisable business models. Even the agriculture-based ones claim to have products that investigators are unable to track. They also largely rely on existing investors to bring in new investors who serve as their downlink in the pyramid scheme.
Experts say that in Nigeria, widespread financial illiteracy, lax regulations, greed, economic hardship and peer pressure make investors susceptible to the machinations of Ponzi organisations that combine aggressive advertising, word-of-mouth campaigns charged by incentives, and initial high returns.
But at the end, the schemes leave victims – many of whom invest their savings, business capital, and borrowed money – unable to do anything but watch their hard-earned money disappear.
‘Make some gains’
Fadahunsi first heard about the CBEX scheme from colleagues at the start of the year. Initially, he was hesitant. But a few days later, his neighbour also mentioned the platform. Recognising that his close associates were participating, and not wanting to miss out, he decided to invest.
“I also thought the money was just sitting in my account, and it could be somewhere where I can make some gains on my money,” he explained.
In early February, he dipped into his rent savings and withdrew the entire 800,000 naira ($517). With that, he bought 500 USDT from the crypto exchange platform Buybit, receiving the coin in his digital CBEX wallet.
Four times a day on the CBEX platform, administrators dropped a code, which they call a “signal”. Investors were required to copy and paste the code into a section of their portal within the hour. CBEX said AI would then use that to make a trade, basically to buy and sell or change positions in such a way that it made a profit from price fluctuations on the investors’ behalf. Each time Fadahunsi pasted in the code, he would get 4.7 to 5 USDT as a profit, all of which accumulated towards his returns.
“So the more you do it, the more the percentage increases. In a month, I got double of 500 USDT,” he said, adding that there were also bonuses for things like referrals.
In March, users said CBEX made an adjustment where they no longer input the signal. Instead, investors just had to turn on an “AI hosting” option at the start of the day. But some investors say this was likely just a ploy to keep them going, to convince them they were still making a profit before everything crashed in April.
While some investors withdrew their returns, by the time CBEX crashed, Fadahunsi had not withdrawn any money. He had wanted to maximise the investment opportunity, to leave the funds to grow for five to six months before using them to buy a plot of land to build his future home. Now, that dream is dead.
“It is very hard, but thank God that my landlord is actually understanding,” he said.
“I am not proud of opening my mouth [to say] that I actually invested in a Ponzi scheme,” he lamented. “If I wasn’t greedy, I should have been able to withdraw two to three times on the platform, and it would have been successful.”
The USDT that CBEX invested in is a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar [File: Afolabi Sotunde/Reuters]
A history of Ponzi schemes
Even before CBEX, Ponzi schemes were not new in Nigeria.
In March, Nigeria’s anticorruption agency published a list of 58 Ponzi schemes presently operating in the country, and advised the public to “be vigilant and proactive”. This highlights the widespread presence of fraudulent entities masquerading as legitimate businesses in the country: in 23 years, Nigerians lost 911 billion naira ($589m) to Ponzi-related scams, the National Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), which protects the country’s banking system, said in 2022.
Often, Ponzi schemes are able to operate by leveraging grey areas, such as obtaining an irrelevant certification that exaggerates their significance or legitimacy.
CBEX, for instance, obtained the EFCC’s anti-money laundering certificate through the corporate identity of ST Technologies International Ltd, and paraded it as a kind of clearance for conducting business.
However, the NFIU said CBEX was never granted a registration by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to operate as a Digital Assets Exchange, solicit investments from the public or perform any other function within the Nigerian capital market.
Legitimate businesses can be verified by checking the SEC website. However, experts say the vast majority of those who invest in shady schemes seem unaware or uneducated about this – 38 percent of Nigerians are financially illiterate, according to a 2023 central bank report.
At the same time, other victims may be willing participants, at least at first.
Joachim MacEbong, a senior analyst at Stears, a Lagos-based financial advisory firm, said while some victims are unwitting, others intentionally walk into Ponzi schemes hoping to make a quick profit before it crashes.
“There are those who know it is a scam, but they always feel they could cash out before everybody else. And so they would make that calculation, and it is largely because of the situation in the country; there is a lot of hardship. This kind of hardship increases the people’s desire to take risks and gamble with their very important funds,” he explained.
Nigeria’s economy has been on a downward spiral for decades, and is worse now that the country is going through its toughest economic downturn in about 30 years. Food prices have soared, and basic amenities are becoming inaccessible as the inflation rate sits at 23.71 percent. Against this backdrop, some see Ponzi schemes as a fast way to break out of the vicious cycle of poverty.
Like the proverbial early bird, early investors benefitted from the CBEX scheme, multiplying their returns for several months. Although social media is agog with complaints and bitter disappointment, some people said they had been able to make major purchases such as land and cars from their investment.
“The time scale at which you enter the investment will determine whether it will be a good investment or you will be a victim,” said Effiong of SBM Intelligence, but he added that many new investors are unaware of this catch.
‘We had a lot of plans’
Waris Oyedele is one of the people who invested their savings in CBEX because of worsening financial hardship in the country.
When he realised that the investment had crashed, he wept.
The 25-year-old comes from a low-income family. He graduated from Obafemi Awolowo University last year, but when he could not get a job, he started working as a shoemaker.
In January, he invested his savings of 800,000 naira (500 USDT); by March he had made 1,200 USDT.
He gave the returns to his younger brother to reinvest to help him pay for his future university studies, and in doing so, help ease their father’s financial burden.
“I felt bad [when we lost the money] because we had a lot of plans on it,” Oyedele said.
“I had a plan of buying a computer and going into UI/UX. Now it has gone.”
He is deeply affected by the situation and has reduced the way he spends his tiny income as he tries to rebuild his savings for future use and to support his brother.
Ponzi schemes play on psychology and human instincts by making it seem as though easy money is within reach, Effiong of SBM said.
All investments involve some form of greed, Effiong explained, and the promise of ending up with a higher return is one of the most elementary forms of human motivation: we all want more and as quickly as possible.
“What [a Ponzi scheme] does is that it also unlocks the deep-seated psychological bend for human beings to join groups – the obvious fear of missing out,” he said. “It also thrives on really aggressive marketing – all of that is to prey on the psychology of potential investors to not slow down.”
Agile tactics
Over the years, Ponzi schemes have employed several techniques to appeal to people, even going the extra mile to try and build public trust and goodwill. CBEX, for example, organised a sports competition and ran scholarships for schoolchildren to throw off suspicion, experts said.
In Nigeria, schemes rely heavily on existing investors who are incentivised to introduce new investors. They also engage in aggressive marketing using local and social media, sometimes involving radio, influencers and celebrity endorsements. Afrobeats stars Davido and Rema are some of the most popular celebrities to have unknowingly endorsed and made promo videos for Ponzi schemes in the past.
Ponzi schemes are also becoming increasingly sophisticated and dynamic as they leverage the latest technologies and digital tools, experts say.
“Many of them have apps with wonderful user experiences, which lend an air of credibility to their enterprise. Many of these scammers go to great lengths to design their products in such a way that they look and appear credible,” Effiong said.
MacEbong from Stears agreed, saying fake news and misinformation campaigns will become supercharged using AI tools, making it easier to hoodwink unsuspecting victims.
“There are numerous examples of generative AI being used to fool people who are even well informed and more savvy. When you turn these various tools against people with much lower exposure and information, they are practically defenceless,” MacEbong explained.
Regulators such as the SEC must become more proactive and come up with agile tactics to rein in Ponzi schemes and protect the public from illegitimate enterprises and shut them down before they cause harm, experts told Al Jazeera.
Businesses must be registered and thoroughly vetted because Ponzi schemes have been erroneously certified in the past, Effiong emphasised.
“There has to be a lot of financial education. Financial literacy is critical, which goes beyond how to make money, but [also] to educate the public on the tell-tale signs of Ponzi schemes. The responsibility also lies with the general public to educate themselves. If it sounds too good to be true, chances are it is too good to be true,” he said.
On May 26, EFCC said it had recovered a portion of the money stolen by CBEX and arrested two individuals promoting it. Al Jazeera tried to contact CBEX for comment through its website and publicly available phone numbers, but all were unavailable or out of service.
Meanwhile, many investors like Fadahunsi have lost hope and believe that the money they invested is all gone.
“Whatsoever the authorities retrieve, I am sure that nothing is going to come to me; I moved on already,” he said. “That is a very tough lesson for me. [Now,] I would rather keep my money in my account and spend it till the last dime.”
Aljazeera.com
Business
JUST IN: 13 Banks May Shut Down In March As CBN Confirms 20 Safe For Recapitalisation Deadline
Four weeks before the March 31, 2026, deadline, the Central Bank of Nigeria announced that 20 out of 33 participating banks have met the new minimum capital requirement under its sweeping recapitalisation programme.
Governor Olayemi Cardoso disclosed on Tuesday that banks have so far raised a verified and approved total of N4.05 trillion, marking a major step in efforts to reinforce the strength and stability of the country’s financial system.
Speaking at the end of a two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in Abuja, Cardoso said the committee welcomed the strong progress recorded so far.
According to him, most financial soundness indicators in the banking sector remain within regulatory thresholds, reflecting continued resilience.
Of the N4.05 trillion raised as of February 19, 2026, N2.90 trillion, representing 71.67 per cent, came from domestic sources.
According to a BusinessDay report, foreign participation accounted for $706.84 million, equivalent to N1.15 trillion, or 28.33 per cent of the total.
The CBN governor described the balance between local and foreign inflows as a sign of broad investor confidence. He noted that interest from international investors had been evident in previous engagements abroad and expressed satisfaction that this interest has translated into tangible commitments.
While 20 institutions have crossed the new capital threshold, 13 banks are still working to complete their recapitalisation plans before the deadline.
Some of these lenders are exploring strategic options, including potential mergers or other forms of consolidation.
Cardoso explained that banks currently under regulatory intervention face legal and structural considerations that may affect the timing and sequencing of their capital-raising efforts.
Punch reported that Cardoso stressed that it would be unrealistic to expect them to follow the same timeline as institutions that had more than two years to prepare.
Despite these differences, the governor reassured the public that depositors’ funds remain safe.
He said affected banks continue to operate under close supervisory and regulatory oversight to safeguard stability.
Cardoso reiterated that the March 31 deadline is non-negotiable. He said the CBN remains fully engaged with stakeholders to ensure the process concludes in an orderly, transparent and credible manner.
According to him, the central bank will continue to monitor progress closely and enforce regulatory standards to preserve the stability and integrity of the banking system.
With just weeks left, attention now turns to the remaining banks and whether they can close the gap in time. For the majority that have already met the target, the milestone signals a new phase in Nigeria’s banking reforms and a stronger foundation for the years ahead.
National Commission for Refugees, Migrants and Internally Displaced Persons (NCFRMI), has reiterates its commitment to effective implementation of the Global Compact for Migration.
The Honourable Federal Commissioner, NCFRMI, Hon. Dr. Tijani Aliyu Ahmed disclosed this in his opening remark at the just concluded Voluntary National Review (VNR) on the implementation of the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM) ahead of the 2026 International Migration Review Forum (IMRF).
The event which was held between February 17 and 21 at the Lagos Continental Hotel, Victoria Island Lagos, had the International Organisation for Migration, other international partners, members of the civil society, federal and state government agencies among others in attendance.
Speaking, Dr Tijani extended appreciation to the Federal Government, the United Nations Network on Migration for the sustained technical guidance, institutional support and capacity building provided to Nigeria in the implementation of the Compact.
“I equally acknowledge the invaluable support of the Resident Coordinator’s Office for strengthening system-wide coherence and coordination across the United Nations Country Team and partners in Nigeria.”
He recalled that Nigeria adopted the Global Compact for Migration following its endorsement by the United Nations General Assembly in December 2018, and “since then we have demonstrated sustained political will and institutional commitment to its implementation. As a Champion Country, Nigeria has taken deliberate steps to domesticate the principles and objectives of the GCM within our national migration governance framework.
“The recently validated revised National Migration Policy and its integrated Implementation Plan, which doubles as Nigeria’s National GCM Implementation Plan, stand as clear evidence of this alignment between global commitments and national action.”
He added that in preparation for the first IMRF in 2022, Nigeria conducted its inaugural Voluntary National Review in Lagos through a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach. “The process strengthened coordination among stakeholders and informed Nigeria’s national report, pledge and interventions at IMRF 2022. Building on that foundation, Nigeria convened a second Voluntary National Review in August 2024 in Abuja, structured around Technical Working Groups covering Labour Migration, Migration Data, Border Management, Return, Readmission and Reintegration, and Diaspora Engagement. The outcomes informed Nigeria’s engagement at the regional review and reinforced sustained national monitoring.”
This 2026 Review according to him is required to track progress since the 2024 regional review, assess implementation across the twenty-three objectives of the Compact, and consolidate national priorities, challenges and areas for improvement ahead of IMRF 2026. “Over the next three days, discussions will follow the GCM review template and align with the thematic areas of the IMRF roundtables. Breakout sessions chaired by members of the United Nations Network on Migration and supported by national thematic leads will evaluate progress, identify lessons learned and generate structured talking points to guide Nigeria’s participation at IMRF 2026.
“This consultation also provides an opportunity to stock take Nigeria’s pledges made at IMRF 2022, highlighting achievements, gaps and opportunities for renewed commitment. Furthermore, building on the evidence of impact from Nigeria’s side event at IMRF 2022, preparations are underway for a side event at IMRF 2026 to showcase practical achievements, lessons learned and pathways for strengthening regular migration channels.
“At this juncture, I would like to reiterate the unwavering commitment of the National Commission for Refugees, Migrants and Internally Displaced Persons, to the effective implementation of the Global Compact for Migration and to sustaining the whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach that underpins this national process.
“We remain deeply appreciative of the consistent support of the International Organization for Migration and other members of the United Nations Network on Migration in strengthening Nigeria’s migration governance efforts. As we prepare for IMRF 2026, we look forward to sustained technical collaboration and partnership to facilitate Nigeria’s effective engagement at the Review Forum and the successful delivery of our proposed side event. Continued cooperation will be critical in transforming commitments into tangible, evidence-based results.”
The federal, state, and local governments may receive additional revenue allocations of about N14.57tn following the recent Executive Order signed by President Bola Tinubu, directing that royalty oil, tax oil, profit oil, profit gas, and other revenues due to the Federation under production sharing, profit sharing, and risk service contracts be paid directly into the Federation Account
This is based on an analysis of revenue inflows in 2025, drawing on monthly earnings submitted to the Federation Account Allocation Committee and obtained by our correspondent in Abuja on Thursday.
Based on estimates from 2025 remittances to the Federation Allocation Accounts Committee, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company is projected remit about N906.91bn in management fees and frontier exploration funds, while oil and gas royalties totalling N7.55tn and gas flaring penalties of N611.42bn collected by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission will now be remitted directly to the Federation Account.
The Nigeria Revenue Service will also lose the authority to collect Petroleum Profits Tax and Hydrocarbon Tax, which generated N4.905tn in 2025, while the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund recorded N596.61bn in the same period, bringing the total affected revenue streams to about N14.57tn.
It was reported on Wednesday that the President signed the executive order directing that royalty oil, tax oil, profit oil, profit gas, and other revenues due to the Federation under production sharing, profit sharing, and risk service contracts be paid directly into the Federation Account.
The order also scrapped the 30 per cent Frontier Exploration Fund under the PIA and stopped the 30 per cent management fee on profit oil and profit gas retained by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited. The order, which took effect from February 13, 2026, is aimed at safeguarding oil and gas revenues due to the Federation and improving remittances into the Federation Account.
According to details of the directive, the President invoked Section 5 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended), while the policy was anchored on Section 44(3), which vests ownership and control of all minerals, mineral oils, and natural gas in the Government of the Federation.
The PUNCH also gathered exclusively that the implementation of the directive commenced in January, and its impact is expected to reflect in the revenue allocations at the FAAC meeting scheduled for next week.
Since the implementation of the PIA in 2021, the Federation Account, shared by the federal, state, and local governments, received only 40 per cent of proceeds from Production Sharing Contracts. The remaining 60 per cent was retained by the NNPC, split between a 30 per cent Frontier Exploration Fund and a 30 per cent management fee.
Under the new directive, NNPC will no longer collect and manage the statutory 30 per cent Frontier Exploration Fund, a development expected to significantly alter the revenue landscape of the oil and gas sector.
The frontier exploration fund is designed to finance hydrocarbon exploration activities in Nigeria’s frontier basins, areas outside the traditional Niger Delta producing belt, where commercial discoveries have yet to be fully established. These include: the Chad Basin in the North-East, the Sokoto Basin in the North-West, the Bida Basin in North-Central Nigeria, the Benue Trough, and parts of the Dahomey basin.
Exploration in these locations is aimed at expanding Nigeria’s reserve base, reducing regional concentration of oil production, and enhancing long-term energy security. Activities typically involve seismic data acquisition, exploratory drilling, geological studies, and appraisal campaigns.
The fund was floated under the Petroleum Industry Act because frontier basins are generally high-risk and capital-intensive, and therefore would require sustained funding considered critical to maintaining exploration momentum.
In addition, the national oil company will no longer be entitled to the 30 per cent management fee on profit oil and profit gas revenues. The order further directed that all operators and contractors of oil and gas assets under Production Sharing Contracts must now pay Royalty Oil, Tax Oil, Profit Oil, Profit Gas, and any other government interest directly into the Federation Account.
The directive also suspended payments of gas flare penalties into the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund, instructing the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to remit all proceeds from penalties imposed on operators directly into the Federation Account.
It further directed that all expenditure from the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund must now comply with extant public procurement laws and regulations. Tinubu said excessive deductions, overlapping funds, and structural distortions in the oil and gas sector have weakened remittances to the Federation Account, warning that the practice must end to protect national revenue.
In a post on his verified X handle, the President stated that for too long, revenues meant for federal, state, and local governments had been trapped in layers of charges and retention mechanisms, thereby slowing development across the country.
He said, “For too long, excessive deductions, overlapping funds, and structural distortions in the oil and gas sector have weakened remittances to the Federation Account. When revenues meant for federal, state, and local governments are trapped in layers of charges and retention mechanisms, development suffers. That must end.”
Tinubu emphasised that oil and gas revenues must serve Nigerians first, noting that the ongoing reforms in the sector are aimed at promoting fairness and fiscal responsibility. He added, “Oil and gas revenues must serve the Nigerian people first, and this reform is about fairness and fiscal responsibility.”
The President explained that as the government strengthens national security, invests in education, expands healthcare, stabilises the economy, and advances the country’s energy transition, every legitimate revenue due to the Federation must be protected.
According to him, NNPC will now operate strictly as a commercial enterprise in line with the law, stressing that the era of duplicative deductions and fragmented oversight in the sector is over. Tinubu also disclosed that his administration would undertake a comprehensive review of the Petroleum Industry Act to address structural and fiscal anomalies weakening national revenue.
He further announced the approval of an implementation committee to oversee and ensure effective and coordinated execution of the executive order on the matter.
The President said, “Nigeria can no longer afford leakage where there should be leadership. We are safeguarding the Federation Account. We are strengthening our budget. We are acting in the national interest.”
He reiterated that the reforms are part of his administration’s commitment to Nigerians, adding that the policy direction aligns with his “Nigeria First” promise.
Based on the latest Federation Allocation Accounts Committee revenue data for 2025, the reallocation could have far-reaching implications for government earnings and sector institutions.
While many Nigerians and energy experts have expressed concerns over the potential impact of the policy on the oil and gas industry, a review of potential revenue reallocation suggests that the NNPC may be the least affected among the key players.
Other relevant government agencies operating within the sector could bear a heavier burden, particularly in terms of revenue losses, operational adjustments, and institutional restructuring.
Findings indicated that NNPC may lose about N906.91bn in management fees and Frontier Exploration Fund deductions. Each of the funds accounted for N453.455bn in 2025. A breakdown showed that the N453.455bn realised for frontier exploration fell short of the N710.520bn budgeted for the year, leaving a deficit of N257.066bn.
The monthly trend reveals the volatility of the fund. In January, N31.77bn was deducted from the frontier line, when PSC profits came in at N105.91bn. The February deduction rose to N38.30bn from a profit of N127.67bn, representing a 20.6 per cent increase on the January inflow.
March provided the first big surge, with N61.49bn allocated to frontier exploration from profits of N204.96bn, a jump of 60.5 per cent on February’s figure. April, however, saw deductions ease back to N36.58bn as profits slid to N121.93bn, a 40.5 per cent drop compared with March.
In May, the fund received N38.8bn, only slightly higher than April’s contribution, reflecting profit of N129.33bn. June delivered the lowest allocation so far this year, just N6.83bn, after profits collapsed to N22.77bn. That represented an 82.4 per cent fall from May.
The flow recovered somewhat in July, with N25.34bn transferred into the fund from profits of N84.48bn. In August, the trend rose sharply to its highest level so far this year, as Profit Sharing Contract earnings surged to N263.13bn. This translated to N78.94bn remitted to the Frontier Exploration Fund, more than three times the July contribution and about twelve times the amount recorded in June.
The momentum was sustained in subsequent months. In September, PSC profit stood at N275.38bn, with N82.61bn deducted for frontier exploration. October recorded a sharp decline, as profit dropped to N36.82bn, while deductions amounted to N11.05bn.
In November, profit rebounded to N112.32bn, with N33.70bn transferred to the fund. However, by December, PSC earnings moderated again to N26.82bn, resulting in frontier exploration deductions of N8.05bn.
The same 30 per cent rule also applied to NNPC’s management fees, which mirrored the frontier deductions exactly. In January, NNPC booked N31.77bn; in February, N38.30bn; in March, N61.49bn; in April, N36.58bn; in May, N38.8bn; in June, N6.83bn; in July, N25.34bn; in August, N78.94bn; N82.614bn in September; N11.046bn in October; N33.695bn in November and N8.046bn in December.
The NUPRC is also expected to lose oversight of oil and gas royalty collections, a development that could significantly reduce its revenue from cost-of-collection fees, which are intended to fund its operational activities. Based on 2025 figures, the commission is projected to forgo approximately N7.55tn, while gas flaring penalties during the same period totaled N611.42bn.
Under the Petroleum Profits Tax, Hydrocarbon Tax, and other levies administered by the NRS, a total of N4.905tn was collected in 2025. This revenue will now be channelled directly to the Federation Account. The earnings, however, exclude company income tax on upstream activities and other revenue streams.
Similarly, the MDGIF, which was established to finance strategic gas infrastructure projects and improve domestic gas utilisation, recorded total collections of N596.61bn in 2025. With the recent directive, these funds will now be subject to the same public finance rules governing statutory allocations, signalling a shift in oversight.
Monthly inflows into the MDGIF in 2025 were highly variable: N35.07bn in January, N31.82bn in February, N52.99bn in March, N29.19bn in April, N41.27bn in May, N66.18bn in June, N50.98bn in July, N57.04bn in August, N66.32bn in September, N66.32bn in October, N59.42bn in November, and N46.90bn in December. The highest single-month collection of N66.32bn in both September and October accounted for about 11.1 per cent of the annual total each, while the lowest in April (N29.19bn) represented just under 4.9 per cent of the year’s total.
Cumulatively, these revenue streams would amount to a total of N14.72tn, although the actual inflows could rise or fall depending on fluctuations in crude oil production and exploration activities, which directly determine the amount of revenue generated.
The anticipated upsurge in oil and gas revenue remittances is expected to deliver a significant boost to sub-national earnings, providing state and local governments with much-needed fiscal resources. This inflow could sharply reduce budget deficits, easing financial pressures across the federation and enabling more consistent funding for critical infrastructure and social services.
Over the years, concerns have been raised by the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and the National Assembly of Nigeria over revenue leakages, delayed remittances, and opaque deductions in the oil and gas sector.
With the new directive, Nigeria may be entering a new phase of fiscal discipline and transparency in its most critical revenue-generating industry.
Experts react
Commenting, the Chair of the Oil, Gas, and Energy Policy Forum, Professor Wumi Iledare, urged careful consideration of the recent Executive Order by President Bola Tinubu directing the direct remittance of oil and gas revenues to the Federation Account.
The order, described by Iledare as a “significant fiscal intervention,” aims to strengthen revenue transparency, curb discretionary retention, and ensure statutory remittances flow efficiently to the three tiers of government.
In a statement obtained by The PUNCH on Thursday, titled “PEWI Responds to Presidential Executive Order on Direct Remittance of Oil and Gas Revenues”, Iledare acknowledged the government’s stated objectives.
“Safeguarding public revenues, curbing inefficiencies, and enhancing fiscal discipline are legitimate public finance priorities, particularly in a period of budgetary strain and debt sustainability concerns,” he said.
However, Iledare warned that parts of the Executive Order may intersect with statutory provisions under the PIA 2021, including the Frontier Exploration Fund, the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund, and existing Production Sharing Contract fiscal arrangements.
“While Section 5 of the Constitution empowers the President to implement and enforce laws, substantive changes to statutory fiscal frameworks may require legislative amendments to ensure constitutional alignment and institutional certainty,” he noted.
The energy expert highlighted the importance of distinguishing between contractual entitlements, corporate retained earnings, and statutory earmarked funds under the PIA.
“Clarity in these distinctions is critical to avoid conflating contractual entitlements with discretionary fiscal practices,” Iledare explained.
On the issue of direct remittance of royalty oil, tax oil, and profit oil to the Federation Account, PEWI recognised potential benefits in enhancing transparency and reducing intermediation. Yet, the statement stressed that reforms must be carefully sequenced to maintain contractual stability and safeguard investor confidence.
“NNPC Limited’s dual role as both commercial operator and concessionaire under certain arrangements has long presented institutional tensions within the post-PIA framework.” Iledare said. “Any reform aimed at reinforcing NNPC’s commercial identity must be anchored in legal clarity and predictable governance mechanisms.”
The policy forum therefore recommended a three-pronged approach: prompt legislative consultation to ensure statutory coherence, transparent engagement with operators and investors, and a sequenced reform rollout that balances fiscal urgency with institutional stability.
“Reforms that improve transparency and fiscal integrity are welcome,” the statement concluded, “but sustainable reform must align with constitutional processes, statutory frameworks, and investor predictability. PEWI will continue to monitor developments and provide objective, technically grounded analysis in the public interest.”
Meanwhile, the Capital Market Academics of Nigeria has thrown its weight behind President Bola Tinubu following his recent signing of Executive Order 9 of 2026, which mandates the direct remittance of 60 per cent of oil and gas profits back to the Federation Account.
In a statement released on Thursday, the President of CMAN, Prof Uche Uwaleke, described the move as a “bold and historic” decision that corrects a long-standing fiscal imbalance created by the Petroleum Industry Act of 2021.
“This marks one of the most courageous reforms of his administration and a decisive step toward strengthening fiscal transparency and equity in revenue distribution,” Uwaleke stated.
Uwaleke noted that this structure undermined the principle of collective ownership of national resources. “By correcting this anomaly, the President has ensured that all tiers of government benefit equitably from the nation’s oil and gas wealth. NNPCL, as a limited liability company, must operate independently on its own revenues rather than relying on public funds,” he added.
While praising the reform, CMAN emphasised the need for institutional safeguards to ensure the new policy achieves its intended goals. Specifically, the institute called for the Chairman of the Revenue Mobilisation, Allocation and Fiscal Commission to be included in the committee overseeing the implementation of the Executive Order.
“CMAN underscores the importance of including the RMAFC Chairman to ensure transparency and accountability. This development is a victory for the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee and for fiscal justice in Nigeria.”
The group also urged the administration to extend these reforms to Joint Venture assets, arguing they should also be returned to the Federation Account to maximise national revenue. According to the statement, the anticipated surge in revenue will enhance the capacity of all government tiers to deliver essential services and stimulate the capital markets.
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