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Israel-Iran Conflict Threatens Nigeria’s Economy – CPPE

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Israel-Iran Conflict Threatens Nigeria's Economy – CPPE

Policymakers should begin to explore fiscal policy options to bring down costs in the economy.

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) says the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran could lead to significant economic disruptions in Nigeria, including increased inflation, rising energy costs, and tighter credit conditions.

On June 13, Israel launched a fusillade of attacks targeting Iran’s nuclear programme and military leadership.

Israeli defence officials said the missiles killed members of Iran’s general staff, including Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard, and several senior nuclear scientists.

In response, Iran unleashed ballistic missiles into Israeli territory as explosions were heard over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem on Friday night.

In a statement on Sunday, Muda Yusuf, the chief executive officer (CEO) of CPPE, said while the crisis could boost Nigeria’s oil earnings in the short term, the broader implications for inflation, interest rates, and global trade remain worrying.

“The outbreak of war between Israel and Iran has added a troubling dimension to the challenges of an already floundering global economy,” Yusuf said.

“For the Nigerian economy, the implications are mixed. The development portends a combination of risks and upsides for the economy.”

PETROL, DIESEL PRICES TO RISE ON GLOBAL ENERGY SHOCK

The CPPE chief said global oil prices have jumped 15 percent in the days following the conflict, rising from $65 to $75 per barrel.

This, he noted, would lead to a corresponding spike in the cost of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, and gas in Nigeria — with implications for inflation and business margins.

“Energy cost is a major factor in the Nigerian inflation equation. It impacts production, transportation, and power generation,” Yusuf said.

He warned that Nigerian firms may face “imported inflation” and higher borrowing costs as the central bank and other monetary authorities respond with interest rate hikes.

Despite the risks, Yusuf said Nigeria stands to benefit from stronger foreign exchange (FX) inflows and government revenue if oil prices remain elevated.

“With oil being Nigeria’s biggest forex earner, a sustained rise in prices would positively impact the country’s foreign reserves, ensure better liquidity and help stabilise the naira,” Yusuf said.

He added that the improved fiscal outlook could aid the government’s efforts at fiscal consolidation and narrow the deficit.

The think tank also flagged potential risks to local firms with trade or supply chain links in the Middle East, adding that investors may increasingly seek safe-haven assets, leading to stock market volatility in other parts of the world.

However, the economist said the Nigerian stock market, which historically responds positively to oil price booms, may buck that trend.

“The outlook for the Nigerian stock market is therefore likely to be positive in the current context,” he added.

The CPPE cautioned that oil revenue gains could fuel excess liquidity in the economy if not well managed, warning of exchange rate pressure and inflationary risks if the central bank fails to sterilise monetised oil receipts.

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2025 Net Worth: Meet Nigerian Billionaire Who Has Made More Money Than Aliko Dangote

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Abdulsamad Rabiu, the founder of BUA Group, has emerged as the fastest-growing African billionaire in 2025.

His wealth rise in 2025 is higher than Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote and other African billionaires.

According to the latest data from the Bloomberg index, Rabiu’s net worth has increased by $5.25 billion in 2025, bringing his total net worth to $8.4 billion as of Friday, November 14.

In comparison, Dangote who has a total net worth of $29.8 billion, has gained $1.75 billion from January to November 14, 2025.

The increase in Rabiu’s wealth is thanks to the performance of his key assets on the Nigerian Exchange: BUA Cement and BUA Foods, two of the largest companies in the country.

However, Dangote remains Africa’s wealthiest individual for total net worth

A Lagos-based financial analyst, Kelvin Umeni, said: “Rabiu’s companies have been performing strongly. If you check the half-year results of his two companies, you will realize he is doing very well. I am not surprised, and I expect him to hit a $10 billion net worth soon.”

Other African billionaires on the Bloomberg billionaire index have also recorded impressive gains this year but not at the same pace with Rabiu.

Johann Rupert, Africa’s second-richest man, has a total net worth of $18.4 billion as at Friday, an increase of $4.79 billion from the start of the year. His wealth is driven by stakes in Richemont.

Nicky Oppenheimer, another South African billionaire known for his holdings in De Beers, has gained $2.18 billion so far in 2025, bringing his wealth to $13.7 billion. While Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris wealth totals $10.1 billion, which is a YTD increase of $3.23 billion.

His fellow countryman, Nassef Sawiris net worth currently stands at $9.42 billion, a $727 million growth in 2025.

South African entrepreneur Natie Kirsh fortune has increased by $530 million, taking his total net worth to $9.86 billion.

It is important to note that Dangote remains Africa’s richest man by a distance, but for wealth gain in 2025, Abdulsamad Rabiu is the rising star.

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CBN Gov Welcomes S&P’s Upgrade Of Nigeria’s Outlook To Positive

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, has welcomed the decision of S&P Global Ratings to revise Nigeria’s outlook to “positive” from “stable,” describing it as a signal that reforms in the financial system are gaining traction.

S&P announced the upgrade on Friday citing improving policy coordination, strengthened monetary management and steps taken to restore confidence in the Nigerian economy.

The revision shows that Nigeria is now viewed as having a better chance of achieving stronger credit fundamentals over the medium term. This means S&P now sees Nigeria as more likely to strengthen its economic and financial stability in the coming years, based on recent policy improvements.

In practical terms, the agency believes the country has a stronger chance of earning a future credit rating upgrade if current reforms are sustained.

Speaking at a strategic session in Abuja, Cardoso said the development reflects the steady progress recorded in stabilizing key economic indicators since the beginning of the year.

According to him: “This is encouraging news for the country. It shows that our efforts to restore stability, strengthen governance frameworks and rebuild trust in the financial system are being recognized internationally.”

The Governor noted the CBN’s actions—ranging from tighter monetary policies to enhanced foreign exchange market operations—have contributed to clearer market signals and better investor confidence.

“The Central Bank has brought stability to the economy and become a beacon of hope,” he stated.

Cardoso added that the improved outlook should motivate both public and private sector stakeholders to sustain ongoing reforms that support growth, investment, and long-term macroeconomic resilience.

S&P’s latest position places Nigeria on a stronger footing ahead of future reviews and sends a positive message to global investors assessing opportunities in Africa’s largest economy.

 

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Nigeria Targets ₦160bn From Wheat Production

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The Federal Government on Saturday said it has earmarked 40,000 hectares of land for 2025/2026 dry season wheat production and registered 80,000 farmers, with an expected output value of approximately ₦160 billion.

The Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, disclosed this during the official flag-off of the 2025/2026 dry season wheat production programme under the National Agricultural Growth and Agro Pocket Project (NAGSAP) in Jere Local Government Area of Borno State.

Speaking at the ceremony, the minister said that out of the 40,000 hectares earmarked for wheat production this dry season, 3,000 hectares have been allocated to Borno State, representing 6,000 registered wheat farmers.

He said: “Under the 2023/2024 dry season wheat production programme, a total of 107,429 registered farmers were supported with critical subsidized inputs, resulting in an output valued at ₦474,628,000 billion. During the 2024/2025 dry season, 279,297 registered farmers received support, with an output valued at ₦893,750,004 billion.

“For the current 2025/2026 season, the programme is targeting 80,000 registered farmers with an expected output value of approximately ₦160 billion.”

Kyari emphasized that the NAGSAP programme will deploy Agricultural Extension Agents to guide farmers on modern agronomic practices and provide continuous field-level advisory services.

“In addition, Fertiliser and Seed Quality Control Officers will be mobilised to ensure that all inputs delivered to farmers meet the required standards, thereby guaranteeing higher productivity and improved yields,” Kyari added.

According to him, the wheat component of the NAGSAP programme covers sixteen states of the federation.

“These are Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Cross River, Gombe, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Niger, Plateau, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, and Zamfara. The inclusion of Cross River last year expanded wheat production into the southern region for the first time and strengthened our national capacity to diversify production across ecological zones,” he said.

Kyari noted that the project is designed to include women and young people, enabling them to access training and agricultural opportunities.

“NAGSAP is deliberately designed to leave no one behind. The program ensures that farmers across communities—including women and young people, who play vital roles in our agricultural workforce—have equitable access to inputs, training, and opportunities.

“The success of any agricultural season depends on the quality of inputs that reach our farmers. Without certified seeds, accurate fertilizer blends, and timely access to crop protection products, no level of effort in the field can deliver the yields we require as a nation. This is why NAGSAP places strong emphasis on input quality, traceability, and transparent delivery systems, ensuring that every farmer receives the right inputs at the right time to achieve higher productivity and better returns,” he said.

Also speaking, the Governor of Borno State, Babagana Zulum, applauded the Federal Government for its continuous support towards irrigation development.

“Mr President’s commitment to food security and national productivity provides the foundation upon which programs like this are built,” he stated.

According to him, Borno State, with its vast arable and irrigable land—especially within the Lake Chad Basin—remains one of Nigeria’s most promising agricultural frontiers.

He said: “Today is more than a ceremony; it is a celebration of hope, resilience, and our unwavering commitment to ensuring that no family in Borno State goes hungry and no farmer is left behind. Despite the challenges of displacement, insecurity, and climate shocks, Borno State remains steadfast in growing its own food and empowering its people.”

The governor reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to sustaining all-season farming through the provision of essential infrastructure, logistics, modern machinery, improved seeds, fertilizers, agrochemicals, and other inputs required to boost productivity and support farmers across the state.

“Here in Borno State, wheat cultivation is not just a program; it is a transformative initiative. Through targeted investments in irrigation, mechanization, quality inputs, and extension services, we are equipping farmers to achieve higher yields, enhance productivity, and contribute meaningfully to national output.”

He further stated: “Borno State has achieved remarkable milestones under our people-centered agricultural vision. Our input support programmed have reached tens of thousands of smallholder farmers, resettled households, women, and youth, providing improved seeds, agrochemicals, and agronomic guidance.”

 

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