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Winner Emerges As AI Predicts 2027 Presidential Election Between Tinubu, Obi, Atiku (See Result)

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As Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election approaches, early political activity is heating up, especially with the emergence of the ADC coalition to challenge incumbent President Tinubu and the APC

A Four Horsemen-style analysis applied by ChatGPT’s election predictor provides insights into who may emerge as the winner

However, the AI analysis offers context and caveats, suggesting the current prediction could still change.

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It is still two years until Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election, but electoral activities have already kicked off in full swing, in violation of the country’s campaign regulations

The opposition, sensing the growing power of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), has entered into a coalition agreement, using the All Democratic Congress (ADC), a small party, as its new adopted platform.

Amid the political debate, Legit.ng asked ChatGPT’s Election Predictor, “Acting as an experienced political editor in Nigeria, predict who will win the 2027 presidential election?”

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The generative AI tool responded by applying a Four Horsemen‑style framework to Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election.

The Four Horsemen-style framework is a strategic or analytical model popularised by Scott Galloway, a professor at NYU Stern School of Business, in his bestselling book The Four: The Hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google.

In this Four Horsemen framework analysis, each “Horse” symbolises a powerful factor that historically predicts whether the incumbent party will lose a presidential election. If two or more horses are present, the incumbent party is predicted to lose. Here’s what each horse represents: White Horse means Significant Third-Party Candidate.

That is, there is public dissatisfaction with the two main parties (APC and PDP). Red Horse represents Voter Turnout Uptick. This means there is a motivated electorate seeking change and willing to go out en masse to vote. Black Horse represents recession, reflecting that the state of the economy is hurting the ruling party (APC). Lastly, Pale Horse represents Vacancy (No Incumbent). It shows a weakened incumbent party without the advantage of a sitting president.

1. White Horse: Significant Third‑Party Candidate
Using the Four Horsemen-style framework, ChatGPT stated that the White Horse is present. This, according to the generative AI tool, is because Atiku, Obi and others have joined the ADC coalition to challenge President Tinubu, and that Obi’s Labour Party and APC-PDP realignment have energised younger voters.

2. Red Horse: Turnout Uptick
Turnout in the 2023 presidential election dropped to around 27%, the lowest in Nigeria’s democratic history, continuing a long decline (57% in 2007, down to ~27% in 2023)

ChatGPT predicts that without major reforms or a dramatic mobilisation, a significant increase in turnout by 2027 seems unlikely. This means that Red Horse is absent.

3. Black Horse: Recession or Economic Crisis
Although inflation remains high and cost‑of‑living pressure persists, the World Bank reports economic growth of around 4.6% in late 2024 and projects 3.6% in 2025 under Tinubu’s reforms (fuel subsidy removal, exchange‑rate adjustments, revenue gains).

This means there is no clear, outright recession. And according to the framework, this means that Black Horse is absent (for now).

4. Pale Horse: Vacancy/Incumbent Exit
From all indications, President Tinubu will seek re‑election, and he remains healthy; no credible rumour of withdrawal or vacancy has surfaced. This means that Pale Horse is absent.

Overall Score: 1 (only White Horse)
Per the Four Horsemen model (original research since 1932), if fewer than two horses appear, the incumbent party is predicted to win 100% of the time, ChatGPT’s election predictor stated, adding that a score of 1 strongly suggests continuation of the APC’s control of the presidency.

2027 election prediction: Context & caveats
The generative AI also provided some context and caveats regarding the prediction. The AI election predictor stated that while turnout in 2023 was dire, if the ADC coalition (or new parties) manage a true grassroots turnout surge, especially among young and first-time voters, it could flip the signalling on the Red Horse.

It added that a sudden downturn, e.g., global oil shocks, debt crises, and serious food insecurity, could activate the Black Horse later in the election cycle.

Also, unexpected developments (e.g. judicial rulings, major scandals) could affect Pale Horse’s status.

And lastly, the predictor stated that it doesn’t identify which candidate will win, only whether the incumbent party (APC under Tinubu) is likely to retain the presidency.

ChatGPT’s election predictor verdict for 2027 elections Given current observable trends and likely conditions, White Horse is present (significant opposition coalition) while Red, Black, and Pale Horses are absent.

The Four Horsemen framework would forecast that the APC (Tinubu’s incumbency) is likely to retain the presidency in 2027, assuming no major economic collapse or turnout revolution occurs.

 

 

 

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Tinubu’s Government Lacks Effective Communication Strategy  - Babangida

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Former Governor of Niger State, Dr. Babangida Aliyu, has said that the administration of President Bola Tinubu is performing well but lacks an effective communication strategy to relay its achievements to Nigerians.

Aliyu made the statement on the Thursday edition of Arise Television’s ‘The Morning Show’, while reacting to the outcome of a recent public accountability session held in Kaduna.

Aliyu, reflecting on the discussions at the Kaduna Forum, said the government is facing public dissatisfaction not because it hasn’t delivered, but because it is failing to tell its own story effectively.

The ex-governor said it is proper for political leaders in the North to make demands from Tinubu’s administration since the bulk of the votes that took power came from the region.

“Let the people understand what is happening on the ground. If by what we say that 63/64 percent of the vote came from the north, it is only logical that the north will be expecting so much from the government.

“But from what we have seen so far is that the government is doing well but they do not know how to communicate very well,” he said.

 

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New Twist As El-Rufai Snubs ADC, Announces Another Party To Vote In Kaduna Bye-Election [ Video Trends]

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Former Kaduna governor, Nasir El-Rufai, appeared to have taken a reverse from the coalition’s adopted political platform, ADC

This is as the former governor took to social media and asked the people of Zaria, Chikun to vote for another party in the Saturday, August 16 (today), bye-elections in the constituencies in Kaduna

Recall that the former governor recently visited Sokoto to canvass support for the ADC, while criticising President Bola Tinubu and the APC government.

Click to watch El-Rufai’s video here

Nasir El-Rufai, the immediate past governor of Kaduna, has fueled speculations that he dumped the recently adopted coalition political platform, African Democratic Congress (ADC), as he called on the people of Chikun/Kajuru federal constituency and Zaria Kewaye and Basawa state constituency to vote for the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

However, in a dramatic turn, the former governor urged the people of Zaria and Chikun to vote for the SDP in the Saturday, August 16, by-election, a poll which was meant to test the opposition’s strength ahead of the 2027 general election.

Recall that El-Rufai defected to the SDP after dumping the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), but soon after joining the party, the SDP fell into a leadership crisis, and the former governor has been silent on his membership and allegations against him.

El-Rufai recently visited Sokoto on a mission to gather support for the ADC. He described his action as a patriotic one to rescue Nigeria from the grip of ‘nepotism’ and ‘incompetence’.

During his visit to Sokoto, the former governor attended two important events meant to sensitise the people and political stakeholders working to achieve the agenda of sacking President Tinubu and the APC in the next general election.

During his address at the event, the former governor lambasted the ruling party and called them ‘a failed, clannish, and visionless administration that has plunged Nigeria into deeper socio-economic misery’.

He declared that it was time for Nigerians to rise against the APC and accused the party of ‘broken promises and elite conspiracy’. He warned that any move to vote for the APC beyond 2027 would be a greater doom for the country.

However, in a sharp turn, the former governor, in a video posted on his social media page ahead of the by-election, urged the people in the constituencies where the poll will be held in Kaduna on Saturday, August 16, to vote for the SDP rather than the ADC he went to Sokoto to canvass for.

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2027 Election: ADC Mentions Names, People Allegedly Working Underground To Destroy Party

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Former Minister of Sports and Youth Development, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, has alleged that certain individuals linked to the Presidency are working covertly to destabilise the African Democratic Congress (ADC) ahead of the 2027 general election.

Speaking in an interview with the Nigerian Tribune, Abdullahi, who is the party’s National Publicity Secretary, claimed the plot was aimed at weakening opposition parties to prevent them from mounting a credible challenge.

His words: “It is the Presidency, the ruling government! They know that on their records alone, Nigerians won’t vote for them. They want to foist a fait accompli so that by 2027 no party willbe strong enough to challenge them for power,” he alleged.

Abdullahi recalled President Bola Tinubu’s remark at the National Assembly suggesting he was “enjoying” the problems facing political parties, including the PDP and SDP.

“If I were advising the President, I’d tell him to encourage opposition parties to get their acts together because democracy is stronger when there’s competition,” Abdullahi said.

He added: “But to say you are enjoying the crisis shows where this is coming from and what the agenda is”

On allegations by some state chairmen and former ADC presidential candidate Dumebi Kachikwu that a coalition group had hijacked the party, Abdullahi dismissed them as baseless.

“Kachikwu was expelled from the party in 2022. He was just a presidential candidate, not an official. His contract with the party ended after the election,” he said.

He explained that all 36 state chairmen were invited to Abuja , assured of retaining their positions until the next party congress, and raised no objections at the time.

“It is the same hands of destabilisation that destroyed other opposition parties at work. But they won’t succeed with ADC,” Abdullahi stated.

The ADC chieftain went further to dismiss speculations about the zoning of its presidential ticket ahead of the 2027 elections, insisting thep party iS focused on issues that directly affect Nigerians.

He stressed that the conversation about where the next president should come from is driven by political elites rather than ordinary citizens.

“It is the same poverty afflicting a man from Kano that afflicts a man from Umuahia or Damaturu,”he said.

He added that Nigerians want leaders who can solve their problems, not debate over regional origin.

He criticised the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) for “weaponising regions, religion, and ethnicity” to an unprecedented level.

Recalling past politics, he noted that in the Second Republic, voters were more concerned with party policies, such as the UPN’s promise of free education, than with a candidate’s background.

He compared the situation to the U.S., where parties internally decide whether to change candidates, as the Democrats did after President Joe Biden’s poor debate performance by rallying behind Kamala Harris.

The ADC leader insisted that the selection of a presidential candidate remains an internal party decision and warned against turning it into “a national referendum.”

He accused the APC of trying to frame the 2027 election around regionalism, ethnicity, and religion rather than governance and policy issues.

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