Business
World Bank Cuts Global Growth Forecast To 2.3% For 2025
If current projections hold, average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s would be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s.
Global economic growth is projected to slow to 2.3 per cent in 2025 due to mounting trade tensions and persistent policy uncertainty, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.
A statement from the bank’s Online Media Briefing Centre on Tuesday noted that the new forecast was nearly half a percentage point lower than the rate projected at the beginning of the year.
The report indicated that the slowdown would mark the weakest non-recessionary global growth since 2008.
“The turmoil has resulted in growth forecasts being cut in nearly 70 per cent of all economies, across all regions and income groups,” the report states.
In spite of the gloomy outlook, a global recession is not anticipated. However, if current projections hold, average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s would be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s.
Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President for Development Economics, warned of deepening stagnation in the developing world.
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“Outside of Asia, the developing world is becoming a development-free zone. It has been advertising itself for more than a decade,” he said.
Mr Gill noted that growth in developing economies had declined steadily, from 6 per cent annually in the 2000s, to 5 per cent in the 2010s, and to under 4 per cent in the 2020s.
This trend mirrored the slowdown in global trade, which fell from an average of 5 per cent in the 2000s to under 3 per cent today. Investment growth had also weakened, while debt had surged to record levels.
The report projected that growth would slow in nearly 60 per cent of developing economies in 2025, averaging 3.8 per cent before a modest rise to 3.9 per cent in 2026 and 2027.
The report added that more than a full percentage point below the average of the 2010s.
“Growth in low-income countries is expected to reach 5.3 per cent in 2025, a 0.4 percentage point downgrade from earlier forecasts.
“Tariff hikes and tight labour markets are expected to keep global inflation elevated, with a projected average of 2.9 per cent in 2025, still above pre-pandemic levels.”
The World Bank warned that slowing growth would hinder efforts by developing economies to create jobs, reduce poverty, and close the income gap with advanced economies.
“Per capita income growth in these economies is forecast at 2.9 per cent in 2025, 1.1 percentage points below the 2000–2019 average.
“Assuming developing countries (excluding China) maintain a GDP growth rate of 4 per cent the forecast for 2027, it would take them about two decades to return to their pre-pandemic growth trajectory.”
Still, the report noted that global growth could rebound more quickly if major economies reduced trade tensions.
It said that resolving current disputes and halving tariffs could boost global growth by 0.2 percentage points over 2025 and 2026.
In response to rising protectionism, the World Bank urged developing economies to diversify trade, pursue strategic partnerships, and engage in regional agreements.
Given constrained public resources and growing development needs, policymakers are encouraged to mobilise domestic revenue, prioritise spending for the most vulnerable, and enhance fiscal management.
To drive sustainable growth, the report emphasised the need to improve business environments, expand productive employment, and align workforce skills with market demands.
Finally, it highlighted the importance of global cooperation in supporting the most vulnerable economies through multilateral initiatives, concessional financing, and targeted relief for countries affected by conflict.
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The cost of importing petrol into Nigeria has dropped sharply following the recent decline in global crude oil prices, creating fresh competition for local refiners, including the $20 billion Dangote Refinery.
New data released by the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) shows that the landing cost of imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, has fallen to N1,117 per litre.
The figure is now significantly lower than Dangote Refinery’s gantry price of N1,250 per litre, leaving a difference of N133 per litre.
The development comes days after the mega refinery reduced its ex-depot petrol price from N1,275 to N1,250 per litre in response to changing market conditions.
The latest MEMAN pricing template suggests that fuel importers may now enjoy a competitive edge over domestic refiners as international crude prices continue to soften. Aside from petrol, the landing costs of other petroleum products also recorded notable declines.
According to the data, diesel landing cost dropped to N1,470 per litre, compared to Dangote Refinery’s price of N1,700 per litre. Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK), commonly known as aviation fuel, also fell to N1,426 per litre, while Dangote’s price remains N1,650 per litre.
MEMAN estimated the exchange rate for fuel imports at N1,366.85 per dollar, reflecting the prevailing official foreign exchange rate at the time of the calculation.
Some filling stations along the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway and in other locations across Lagos and Ogun states have reduced petrol prices below N1,300 per litre.
This follows a price cut announced by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery on Sunday.
The refinery adjusted its ex-depot gantry price of petrol down to N1,250 per litre from N1,275 per litre, while also slashing the price of diesel to N1,700 per litre from N1,800 per litre.
According to Dangote officials, the price review reflects a recent decline in global oil prices and reinforces the company’s commitment to making refined products more affordable while providing cost relief to Nigerian consumers and businesses.
Following the announcement, observations across the Mowe/Ibafo axis of the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway in Ogun State showed that several independent marketers immediately adjusted their pumps. For instance, MRS filling stations reduced their petrol pump price to N1,286 per litre, NIPCO and Heyden retailed the product at N1,290 per litre, and SGR adjusted its price to N1,297 per litre.
Reductions were also recorded in the diesel market, with many filling stations dropping their prices to N1,800 per litre from the previous N1,900 per litre.
Despite these downward adjustments, many retail outlets still sell petrol above the N1,300 mark. Outlets operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) in Ibafo adjusted their pumps to N1,305 per litre, while Mobil and Asharami sold the product at N1,310 and N1,320 per litre, respectively.
The overall price drop comes after a prolonged period of high fuel costs in Nigeria, which saw petrol skyrocket from N830 per litre to over N1,300 after global crude oil climbed past $115 per barrel due to tensions between the United States and Iran.
Barely 24 hours after announcing a reduction in the price of premium motor spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, Dangote Refinery has adjusted its ex-depot price upward, joining several other fuel depot operators in responding to renewed volatility in the global oil market.
The latest development comes after the refinery had cut petrol prices twice within two days, lowering its ex-depot rate from N1,275 per litre to N1,250 per litre.
However, fresh market data now indicates a reversal of that trend as rising crude oil prices continue to influence domestic fuel pricing.
Industry observers attribute the latest increase to growing uncertainty in the international energy market, particularly concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global oil supplies.
Data from PetroleumPriceNG shows that Dangote Refinery increased its petrol price by 0.46 per cent to N1,256 per litre, up from N1,250 per litre announced earlier.
The refinery’s adjustment was mirrored by several major depot operators across the country. According to the data, AIPEC raised its petrol price to N1,252 per litre, while Ardova also fixed its rate at N1,252 per litre. Bulk Strategic and Liquid Bulk both increased their prices to N1,285 per litre.
The coordinated adjustments reflect growing concerns among marketers and depot operators over the rising cost of crude oil and the need to manage pricing risks.
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