Business
Analysts: Israel-Iran Conflict May Hike Nigeria Fuel Costs
The fresh wave of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may soon translate into higher fuel prices in Nigeria, analysts say, as global oil markets react to Israel’s recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Oil prices spiked sharply after the strikes, which also reportedly killed senior Iranian military commanders. The escalation marks a significant turning point in the longstanding hostilities between the two nations.
According to Bloomberg, Brent crude soared by as much as 13% in intraday trading—the largest jump since March 2022 before settling at a 7.6% gain.
Meanwhile, global financial markets reflected the volatility, with S&P 500 futures slipping 0.9% and gold climbing 1% to its highest in over a month, as investors sought safe havens.
Speaking to Nairametrics, Jide Pratt, Country Manager of TradeGrid and COO of Aiona, emphasized the direct connection between Middle Eastern instability and fuel prices in Nigeria.
“Iran, being a major oil-producing nation, is a trigger for the prices of crude oil,” Pratt explained. “As such, with the bombing, the immediate effect we see is that prices of Brent have gone up to $78 and now about $73 as an immediate reaction.”
He added that, should tensions escalate further, the consequences could be even more severe. “If this escalates, then the prices will go up and so will the prices of distillates here in Nigeria and across the world.”
“Pratt also pointed out that Nigeria’s volatile foreign exchange rate could worsen the domestic impact. “What makes it worse will be if we do not keep our exchange rate consistent and constant,” he said.
“While the oil price spike may bring increased revenue to the Nigerian government, analysts stress the need for prudent financial management. “In all, more revenue for the Federal Government and states—if they spend it in a frugal way,” Pratt noted.
Energy economist Edwin Eze of the Abuja-based Centre for Energy Policy also noted, “For Nigeria, that could mean an increase in landing costs and ex-depot prices, which may eventually be passed on to consumers.”
Although the Federal Government has maintained that fuel subsidy removal will allow prices to reflect market realities, the timing of another potential hike is likely to stir public discontent, especially amid existing economic hardship and inflationary pressures.
What you should know
- On June 12, Israel launched rounds of attacks on several locations in Iran, including the Natanz nuclear site and Tabriz.
- Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu said strikes targeted Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and that the operation would continue until the threat was removed.
- Hours after the first Israeli strikes, Tehran launched more than 100 drones.
Nigeria’s petrol imports stood at N1.76 trillion in Q1 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). - A global spike in crude prices often results in higher landing costs for fuel imports, which could lead to further inflationary pressure, especially in a deregulated market.
Nairametrics.com
Fresh petrol depot prices have emerged across Nigeria as marketers adjust to rising crude oil prices and renewed tensions in the Middle East.
The latest pricing changes come amid growing uncertainty in the global energy market following fresh military exchanges between the United States and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes.
ndustry data tracked by PetroleumPriceNG and monitored by Legit.ng show that depot owners raised their Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices as a protective measure against potential losses linked to volatile international oil prices.
Global crude oil prices climbed during early trading on Wednesday, June 10, 2026, after the United States launched strikes on Iranian military infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz.
As of 5:08 a.m. WAT, Brent crude rose by 1.03% to $92.39 per barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.91% to trade at $89.00 per barrel, according to a report by Oilprice.com
The market rally followed reports that American forces targeted Iranian air defence systems, radar installations and surveillance facilities after Washington accused Tehran of bringing down a U.S. Army Apache helicopter operating within the region.
The U.S. Central Command described the strikes as a defensive response. However, Iran denied responsibility for the helicopter incident and accused the United States of escalating tensions unnecessarily. The development has raised fears of a broader regional conflict that could disrupt global crude oil supplies.
Checks across fuel depots nationwide show that marketers have adjusted their petrol prices upward in response to the changing global market conditions.
According to the latest data: AIPEC now sells petrol at N1,247 per litre RainOil Lagos sells at N1,248 per litre Integrated depot price stands at N1,247 per litre Liquid Bulk has also fixed its price at N1,248 per litre Industry experts say the latest adjustments are largely precautionary as marketers attempt to shield themselves from potential losses should crude oil prices continue to rise.
The cost of importing petrol into Nigeria has dropped sharply following the recent decline in global crude oil prices, creating fresh competition for local refiners, including the $20 billion Dangote Refinery.
New data released by the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) shows that the landing cost of imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, has fallen to N1,117 per litre.
The figure is now significantly lower than Dangote Refinery’s gantry price of N1,250 per litre, leaving a difference of N133 per litre.
The development comes days after the mega refinery reduced its ex-depot petrol price from N1,275 to N1,250 per litre in response to changing market conditions.
The latest MEMAN pricing template suggests that fuel importers may now enjoy a competitive edge over domestic refiners as international crude prices continue to soften. Aside from petrol, the landing costs of other petroleum products also recorded notable declines.
According to the data, diesel landing cost dropped to N1,470 per litre, compared to Dangote Refinery’s price of N1,700 per litre. Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK), commonly known as aviation fuel, also fell to N1,426 per litre, while Dangote’s price remains N1,650 per litre.
MEMAN estimated the exchange rate for fuel imports at N1,366.85 per dollar, reflecting the prevailing official foreign exchange rate at the time of the calculation.
Some filling stations along the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway and in other locations across Lagos and Ogun states have reduced petrol prices below N1,300 per litre.
This follows a price cut announced by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery on Sunday.
The refinery adjusted its ex-depot gantry price of petrol down to N1,250 per litre from N1,275 per litre, while also slashing the price of diesel to N1,700 per litre from N1,800 per litre.
According to Dangote officials, the price review reflects a recent decline in global oil prices and reinforces the company’s commitment to making refined products more affordable while providing cost relief to Nigerian consumers and businesses.
Following the announcement, observations across the Mowe/Ibafo axis of the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway in Ogun State showed that several independent marketers immediately adjusted their pumps. For instance, MRS filling stations reduced their petrol pump price to N1,286 per litre, NIPCO and Heyden retailed the product at N1,290 per litre, and SGR adjusted its price to N1,297 per litre.
Reductions were also recorded in the diesel market, with many filling stations dropping their prices to N1,800 per litre from the previous N1,900 per litre.
Despite these downward adjustments, many retail outlets still sell petrol above the N1,300 mark. Outlets operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) in Ibafo adjusted their pumps to N1,305 per litre, while Mobil and Asharami sold the product at N1,310 and N1,320 per litre, respectively.
The overall price drop comes after a prolonged period of high fuel costs in Nigeria, which saw petrol skyrocket from N830 per litre to over N1,300 after global crude oil climbed past $115 per barrel due to tensions between the United States and Iran.
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