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Analysts: Israel-Iran Conflict May Hike Nigeria Fuel Costs

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Analysts: Israel-Iran Conflict May Hike Nigeria Fuel Costs

The fresh wave of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may soon translate into higher fuel prices in Nigeria, analysts say, as global oil markets react to Israel’s recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Oil prices spiked sharply after the strikes, which also reportedly killed senior Iranian military commanders. The escalation marks a significant turning point in the longstanding hostilities between the two nations.

According to Bloomberg, Brent crude soared by as much as 13% in intraday trading—the largest jump since March 2022 before settling at a 7.6% gain.

Meanwhile, global financial markets reflected the volatility, with S&P 500 futures slipping 0.9% and gold climbing 1% to its highest in over a month, as investors sought safe havens.

Speaking to Nairametrics, Jide Pratt, Country Manager of TradeGrid and COO of Aiona, emphasized the direct connection between Middle Eastern instability and fuel prices in Nigeria.

“Iran, being a major oil-producing nation, is a trigger for the prices of crude oil,” Pratt explained. “As such, with the bombing, the immediate effect we see is that prices of Brent have gone up to $78 and now about $73 as an immediate reaction.”

He added that, should tensions escalate further, the consequences could be even more severe. “If this escalates, then the prices will go up and so will the prices of distillates here in Nigeria and across the world.”

“Pratt also pointed out that Nigeria’s volatile foreign exchange rate could worsen the domestic impact. “What makes it worse will be if we do not keep our exchange rate consistent and constant,” he said.

“While the oil price spike may bring increased revenue to the Nigerian government, analysts stress the need for prudent financial management. “In all, more revenue for the Federal Government and states—if they spend it in a frugal way,” Pratt noted.

Energy economist Edwin Eze of the Abuja-based Centre for Energy Policy also noted, “For Nigeria, that could mean an increase in landing costs and ex-depot prices, which may eventually be passed on to consumers.”

Although the Federal Government has maintained that fuel subsidy removal will allow prices to reflect market realities, the timing of another potential hike is likely to stir public discontent, especially amid existing economic hardship and inflationary pressures.

What you should know

  • On June 12, Israel launched rounds of attacks on several locations in Iran, including the Natanz nuclear site and Tabriz.
  • Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu said strikes targeted Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and that the operation would continue until the threat was removed.
  • Hours after the first Israeli strikes, Tehran launched more than 100 drones.
    Nigeria’s petrol imports stood at N1.76 trillion in Q1 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
  • A global spike in crude prices often results in higher landing costs for fuel imports, which could lead to further inflationary pressure, especially in a deregulated market.

Nairametrics.com

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JUST IN: Dangote Confirms N200 Petrol Price Reductions Nationwide; New Price Emerges

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Dangote Refinery Slashes Ex-Depot Price By N40

Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals has announced another reduction in the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), marking its fourth price cut within a month as the company said it continues to pass lower production costs to consumers despite still processing crude oil purchased at significantly higher international prices.

The latest N50 per litre reduction brings the cumulative decrease in the refinery’s PMS ex depot price to N200 per litre since May 30, 2026, reducing the gantry price to 1, 075. Over the same period, the refinery has reduced the ex-depot price of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) by N300 per litre and Jet A1 aviation fuel by N520 per litre.

The company said the successive reductions demonstrate its commitment to ensuring Nigerians benefit from favourable market developments while maintaining the long-term sustainability of domestic refining operations.

In a statement issued on Thursday, the Dangote Refinery explained that petroleum product pricing cannot mirror daily movements in international crude oil markets because crude is purchased weeks, and sometimes months, before it is processed. According to the refinery, the petroleum products currently being supplied to the market are being produced from crude inventories acquired during periods of substantially higher prices.

It disclosed that the average landed cost of crude processed stood at approximately US$124.80 per barrel in May and US$95.25 per barrel in June, compared with the current international benchmark of about US$71.01 per barrel.

The refinery also clarified that its crude procurement costs are not based solely on the headline ICE Brent benchmark commonly quoted in the media.

Rather, crude is purchased on a Dated Brent basis together with applicable market premiums, freight and logistics costs, resulting in actual feedstock costs that differ materially from benchmark prices.

Despite the sharp increase in crude acquisition costs during the period, Dangote Refinery said it deliberately refrained from transferring the full impact to consumers, choosing instead to absorb a significant portion of the additional costs in order to support market stability and cushion Nigerians from the volatility in global energy markets.

The company noted that this pricing approach has helped to keep petroleum product prices in Nigeria below those prevailing in neighbouring countries, even after accounting for applicable taxes. It added that as lower priced crude cargoes progressively enter its production cycle, the refinery has begun systematically passing the benefits to the market through phased price reductions.

“Today’s N50 per litre reduction is the fourth price cut in one month, bringing cumulative reductions to above N200 per litre on PMS. This approach ensures that pricing decisions are anchored on actual production economics and inventory costs rather than short term fluctuations in international oil markets,” it said. “Nigeria today benefits from the stabilising role of domestic refining capacity. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery currently supplies volumes sufficient to meet national demand, helping to strengthen energy security, eliminate dependence on imports, conserve foreign exchange and provide greater price stability for consumers and businesses”.

The company expressed confidence that if international crude prices remain favourable and lower cost feedstock continues to replace higher priced inventories, Nigerians should expect further moderation in petroleum product prices.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery reiterated its commitment to supplying high quality, internationally certified petroleum products at competitive prices while supporting Nigeria’s economic growth and the long-term development of the country’s downstream petroleum sector.

 

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NNPC Announces Petrol Price; List of 10 States With Lowest Rates Emerge

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) has reduced petrol price across its filling stations nationwide, with many now selling below N1,200.

Data obtained by Legit showed that NNPC’s retail stations across the country are selling between N1,170 and N1,395 per litre, depending on their location

Lagos and Ogun recorded the lowest pump price at N1,170 per litre from N1,210, while the price list shows that Yobe recorded the highest pump price at N1,395 per litre.

Other states with high petrol prices include Bauchi (N1,385), Sokoto (N1,378), Plateau (N1,375), and Benue and Zamfara (N1,370 each).

Also, Kaduna (N1,365), Niger (N1,364), Kogi (N1,360), Adamawa (N1,355), and Gombe (N1,345) are among the northern states with high petrol prices. Abuja (N1,210), Osun (N1,220), Kano (N1,222), Ondo and Rivers (N1,230 each), and several southern states, including Abia, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, Imo, and Jigawa, where NNPC retail stations are located, sell petrol for N1,235 per litre at the time of reporting

Top 10 states with the lowest NNPC petrol prices 

Lagos – N1,125

Ogun – N1,170

Abuja – N1,210

Osun – N1,220

Kano – N1,222

Ondo – N1,230

Rivers – N1,230

Abia – N1,235

Akwa Ibom – N1,235

Anambra – N1,235

Top 10 states with the highest NNPC petrol prices

Yobe – N1,395

Bauchi – N1,385

Sokoto – N1,378

Plateau – N1,375

Katsina – N1,377

Benue – N1,370

Zamfara – N1,370

Kaduna – N1,365

Niger – N1,364

Kogi – N1,360

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BREAKING: Meet Emmanuel Nnorom, Incoming UBA Chairman

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On Monday, July 6, 2026, the United Bank for Africa (UBA) announced that billionaire investor Tony Elumelu is set to retire as Group Chairman after 12 years.

The Group also revealed the executive chosen to inherit one of Africa’s most influential banking boardrooms: Emmanuel N. Nnorom.

The leadership transition takes effect on August 21, subject to regulatory processes, marking the end of Elumelu’s tenure under the Central Bank of Nigeria’s corporate governance limits for non-executive directors.

For Nnorom, the appointment caps more than four decades in banking, finance, auditing and corporate leadership, much of it spent helping shape institutions that have become household names in Nigeria’s financial sector.

Nnorom’s career spans more than four decades across banking, finance, auditing and corporate leadership.

Born on April 7, 1958, he studied accounting and related services at Templeton College, Oxford University, completing the programme in 1996 before embarking on a series of senior management roles that established him as one of Nigeria’s most experienced banking executives.

He joined Diamond Bank Plc in January 1996 as General Manager for Operations and Branch Businesses, overseeing branch operations until May 1998. He later held brief executive roles as Senior Consultant at Equitorial Trust Bank between August and October 1998 before becoming Executive Director of Operations at Liberty Merchant Bank from November 1998 to November 1999.

His career trajectory
In January 2001, Nnorom was appointed General Manager for Finance and Planning at NUB International Bank, a position he held until April 2004. He subsequently moved to Standard Trust Bank as General Manager for Operations and Control, remaining there until July 2005 before the bank’s merger with United Bank for Africa.

His career accelerated at UBA, where he spent more than eight years rising through the executive ranks.

Beginning as General Manager for External Reporting in August 2005, he was promoted to Group Chief Operating Officer in April 2008, followed by appointments as Executive Director for Group Office in April 2009, Executive Director for Finance in July 2010 and Executive Director for Risk in March 2012.

In January 2013, he was named Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of UBA Africa, overseeing the lender’s operations across the continent during a period of rapid regional expansion.

Nnorom joined Heirs Holdings in January 2014 as President and Chief Operating Officer, helping oversee the investment company’s growing portfolio across financial services, energy, healthcare, hospitality and infrastructure.
Eight months later, in September 2014, he was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Transnational Corporation of Nigeria Plc (Transcorp), where he led the diversified conglomerate’s businesses spanning power generation, hospitality, agribusiness and energy.
During his tenure, Transcorp expanded its strategic investments, including interests in the Ughelli Power Plant, Transcorp Hotels and Teragro Commodities, while strengthening its position as one of Nigeria’s largest listed conglomerates with roughly 300,000 shareholders.

He is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN) and an honorary member of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN).

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