One of Adeleke’s biggest strengths is incumbency. The governor is seeking to retain the office and has been campaigning on projects and programmes implemented during his first term.

His campaign has also received political boosts from defections by some former APC figures and associates of former Governor Gboyega Oyetola. Several former commissioners and aides have reportedly moved towards Adeleke’s camp.

Adeleke has additionally received endorsements from some traditional security outfits and ethnic groups in the state, although such endorsements should not automatically be interpreted as guaranteed votes.

Another important factor is the governor’s political visibility. Having contested and won the governorship previously, Adeleke already has an established electoral structure and name recognition across the state.

Why Oyebamiji Could Still Shock Adeleke

Despite Adeleke’s advantages, Oyebamiji should not be underestimated.

The APC candidate has the backing of the federal ruling party and former Governor Oyetola, while the APC is attempting to regain control of Osun after losing the governorship in 2022. Analysts have described the contest as a critical battle for the APC and a test of its ability to recover political ground in the state.

An earlier opinion poll published in January gave Oyebamiji 52 per cent against Adeleke’s 38 per cent, although that survey is several months old and should not be treated as a current projection of the final result.

The APC has also been working to consolidate its structures across the state and present Oyebamiji as an alternative to the incumbent.

The Major Problem for APC

The biggest concern for Oyebamiji may be internal cohesion.

Reports in recent weeks have highlighted resignations and defections within the Osun APC, with some former party members moving towards Adeleke’s camp.

If the APC fails to unite its grassroots structures before election day completely, Adeleke could benefit significantly.

Prediction

Prediction: Ademola Adeleke is slightly more likely to win the Osun 2026 governorship election.

Ademola Adeleke (Accord): 50%

Bola Oyebamiji (APC): 40%

Najeem Salaam (ADC): 10%

These figures are mere analytical estimates, not opinion polls or official forecasts. The election could still swing towards Oyebamiji if the APC succeeds in consolidating its structures, increasing turnout in its strongholds and converting federal political influence into actual votes.

However, based on incumbency, Adeleke’s existing grassroots structure, recent defections to his camp and the current political momentum, the prediction at this stage is that Adeleke could narrowly retain the Osun Government House.

The outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout, party organisation, election-day mobilisation and the actual votes cast and counted on August 15.

Predicted Winner: Ademola Adeleke — Accord Party.

Abdugani Arobo, one of the aspirants dissatisfied with the NWC’s selection, initiated legal action against the APC and INEC, culminating in the recent court decision.

In a judgment delivered by Justice Peter Lifu, the court held that the APC failed to make the lawful return and that the evidence of the party was riddled with inconsistencies.

The court declared that the plaintiff (Arobo) was the winner of the primary election for the House of Representatives election for Owo/Ose Federal Constituency.

The judgment read, “The plaintiff, having scored the highest lawful votes cast at the primary election held on the 16th day of May, 2026 with a total of 7,959 votes in Owo Local Government Area and 2,583 votes in Ose Local Government Area respectively, is the only aspirant whose name can be lawfully forwarded to the second defendant (INEC) as its nominated candidate for the seat of the House of Representatives, representing Owo/Ose Federal Constituency.

“An order is hereby made for the defendants to forthwith accept, recognise, support, relate and deal with only the plaintiff, as winner of the House of Representatives election for Owo/Ose Federal Constituency, the plaintiff having scored the highest lawful votes cast in the first defendant’s primary election conducted on the 16th day of May, 2026.

“An order of perpetual injunction is made restraining the defendants, their agents and privies howsoever described, from recognising, dealing or relating with any other person apart from the plaintiff, as winner of the House of Representatives election for Owo/Ose Federal Constituency, the plaintiff having scored the highest lawful votes cast in the first defendant’s primary election conducted on the 16th day of May, 2026.

“An order is further made, directing the 2nd defendant forthwith to reopen its portal, for the purpose of including and uploading the plaintiff’s name, as rightfully nominated candidate of the 1st defendant, for the Owo/Ose Federal Constituency general election, to be conducted in 2027.”

According to him, his decision to align with the PDP was borne out of his desire to contribute to the realisation of Pantami’s governorship aspiration and the transformation of Gombe State.

The defection is the latest in a series of political realignments in the state following Pantami’s emergence as the PDP governorship candidate, with several politicians and supporters across party lines declaring their support for his ambition.

Professor Pantami is expected to fly the PDP flag in the 2027 governorship election in Gombe State