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2027 Election: Why It Would Be Difficult For Tinubu – Fresh Analysis Predicts Possible Results
The race for the 2027 elections in Nigeria has clearly begun this year, with key political stakeholders aligning themselves and defecting to parties they believe will enhance their chances of success.
Atiku Abubakar remains a prominent contender in the presidential race, but he is not alone. Other candidates, including Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and even former President Goodluck Jonathan, are emerging with a common goal to unseat Tinubu in 2027.


Given the current economic climate and the rising cost of living, it is undeniable that a significant portion of Nigerians would prefer to vote for an alternative candidate rather than pledge their support for Tinubu again.
While some of Tinubu’s tough decisions are producing results, this understanding is largely confined to those with a deeper grasp of economics—a far cry from the average citizen who is simply trying to make ends meet.
Political opponents are capitalizing on the existing hardships to secure votes for the 2027 elections, and many affected households are desperately seeking relief from their struggles.
However, if the landscape changes substantially—perhaps by 50%—due to ongoing transformations across various sectors, no amount of campaigning or propaganda could thwart Tinubu’s chances for reelection in 2027.
Candidates like Peter Obi and Goodluck Jonathan are unlikely to command even 30% of the votes in the South-South region; both are headed for a stalemate.
Meanwhile, Tinubu’s initiatives and the support of governors and senators keen on retaining their political offices will guarantee a decisive victory for the president. With Akpabio at the helm of the National Assembly and his influence in the Southern zone, Tinubu can expect over 70% of the votes.
In the North, while Tinubu may face challenges in Kano due to Rabiu Kwankwaso’s influence, he will ultimately split the votes between Atiku and Kwankwaso, thereby undermining Atiku’s chances. With the backing of numerous northern governors, Tinubu is poised to secure around 30% of the votes in that region, leaving Atiku, Kwankwaso, Jonathan, and Obi to divide the remainder.
Turning to the East, although Tinubu received 25% of the votes last election, Peter Obi’s sway has diminished significantly due to the crises plaguing the Labour Party. Many Igbo citizens are disillusioned with Obi’s political instability, leading to a fragmentation of his support base.
Tinubu’s connections with the governors of Anambra, Abia, Imo, and Enugu will guarantee a substantial victory for the APC, as several of these governors have already pledged their support for the president in the upcoming election. Atiku stands no chance in the Southeast, and Jonathan lacks the political clout to garner votes.
In the Southwest, Tinubu’s victory is assured across all states, including Osun, where Rauf Aregbesola, once a political ally, now poses no real threat to the APC’s dominance. The only state where Tinubu might face a substantial loss is Kwara, due to internal conflicts among some APC members, which could potentially give the PDP an advantage.
For political reasons, it will be difficult for Tinubu to lose the 2027 election to opponents like Atiku, Jonathan, Kwankwaso and Peter Obi except the four of them come as one even that it still be the difficult for other reasons.
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Abuja Polls: Tension At Collation Centre As Party Agents Reject Results, Clash With INEC
There was a tense tension at a ward collation centre in Garki, Abuja, following a dispute between party agents and officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission over the handling of councillorship election results. The disagreement started during the collation of votes for the councillorship contest. Party agents accused electoral officials of blocking access to the result sheets before announcing the final figures.
Witnesses at the centre said party representatives were earlier allowed to cross-check figures for the chairmanship election. This process was reportedly carried out calmly and in line with procedure. However, the atmosphere changed when officials moved to declare councillorship results without permitting agents to verify the numbers with their own records.
The move triggered loud protests and heated exchanges inside the collation hall. Several agents insisted that the same level of transparency given during the chairmanship collation should apply to the councillorship exercise. One aggrieved party agent openly challenged the officials and demanded that the figures be reviewed before any declaration was made.
“Sir, we disagree with this final figures. Let’s confirm them with our record. You were there when during the chairmanship, they brought the figures, we checked, so can’t they allow us to do the same for councillorship? They just declare it like that without us checking the figures?” the agent said.
He added, “We disagree with these figures, let’s check them. Who does that? Let’s see it.”
The confrontation briefly disrupted the collation process and caused confusion among voters and party supporters present at the centre. The incident is one of several disputes recorded during the Federal Capital Territory Area Council elections, which have been marked by complaints of procedural lapses, delays and low voter turnout in some wards.
Meanwhile, early results released from the chairmanship elections show that the All Progressives Congress has taken the lead in key councils. The party has so far secured victories in Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), Bwari Area Council and Kwali Area Council. Two other chairmanship results are still being awaited.
The Peoples Democratic Party won the Gwagwalada Area Council seat.
In AMAC, APC candidate Christopher Maikalangu polled 40,295 votes to defeat his closest challenger from the African Democratic Congress, who scored 12,109 votes. The PDP candidate recorded 3,398 votes. Maikalangu is the incumbent chairman.
In Bwari Area Council, APC’s Joshua Ishaku emerged winner with 18,466 votes. The ADC candidate came second with 4,254 votes, while the Zenith Labour Party candidate secured 3,515 votes.
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Germany To Deliver 5 More Missiles Interceptors To UKraine
Germany will deliver five additional PAC-3 missile interceptors to Ukraine if other countries donate a total of 30, German defence minister Boris Pistorius said on Thursday.
PAC-3, or Patriot Advanced Capability-3, is among the main weapons the West has supplied to Ukraine as it fights Russia’s invasion.
“We all know it is about saving lives,” Pistorius said in Brussels after a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group.
“It’s a matter of days and not a matter of weeks or months,” he added.
The minister noted that the Patriots announcement has not yet been approved by national governments, but said he is “very optimistic” that the 30+5 target can be achieved.
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Impersonation: Army Arrests Man Posing As Military General
The Nigerian Army on Thursday said it has arrested Alhaji Tijjani Abdul Rauf, a man posing as a military general, misleading the public and abusing the prestige of the military institution.
In a statement issued by Appolonia Anene, the Army said it uncovered and arrested Rauf who parades himself as a retired Major General after he consistently exploited false credentials to intimidate unsuspecting civilians,
Anene said investigations showed that contrary to his claims, the imposter was never commissioned into the Nigerian Army, nor did he attain the rank of a general from the service.
She stated that further investigations revealed that Tijjani also fraudulently claimed attendance at the prestigious National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), Kuru, while asserting that he was a recipient of the national honour, Officer of the Order of the Federal Republic (OFR).
“The impostor was found to have consistently exploited these false credentials to intimidate unsuspecting civilians, including during court proceedings where he presented himself as a retired senior military officer to command undue respect, sympathy and influence.
“During interrogation, media reports published in two nationally recognised newspapers were recovered, in which the impostor was repeatedly referred to as a “retired Major General.” These misrepresentations, now established to be false, further demonstrate the extent to which the individual sustained his deception within the public space,” Anene said.
Continuing, she highlighted that one such claim, published by an online newspaper, was the identification of Tijjani as “Major General AbdulRauf Tijjani (rtd)” in a suit instituted against the Lagos State Government and other respondents, in which he sought ₦8 billion in damages.
In another report, the imposter was also referred to as a Major General while detailing his appeal against the dismissal of the same suit, which the court had earlier described as a gross abuse of court process and incompetent in law.
“The Nigerian Army wishes to categorically state that no retired officer of the Nigerian Army bears the name Alhaji Tijjani Abdul Rauf, nor has any officer with such identity ever held the rank of Major General or above within the Service. We strongly condemn this act of impersonation, which constitutes a grave offence, undermines public trust and tarnishes the honour and integrity of officers who have genuinely served the nation with distinction.
“The Nigerian Army reiterates its commitment to protecting the sanctity of its ranks, honours and institutions and will continue to collaborate with relevant authorities to ensure that impostors and fraudsters are brought to justice. Members of the public are hereby urged to verify claims of military status through appropriate channels and report any suspicious representations to security agencies,” she added.
She further called on the general public to be mindful of the dangers associated with the impersonation or use of military uniforms and badges by unauthorised persons as the Army will not hesitate to apprehend and prosecute such persons in accordance with the law.
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