Foreign
Analysts: Israel-Iran Conflict Exposes China’s “Limited Leverage”
China called for a ceasefire. But despite its recent history of mediation in the region, its role was limited this time.
Through the 12 days of the recent Israel-Iran conflict, China moved quickly to position itself as a potential mediator and voice of reason amid a spiralling regional crisis.
The day after Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran on June 13, Beijing reached out to both sides to express its desire for a mediated solution even as the country’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, condemned Israel’s actions as a violation of international law.
Chinese President Xi Jinping soon followed with calls for de-escalation, while at the United Nations Security Council, China joined Russia and Pakistan in calling for an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire”.
When Iran threatened to blockade the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes, Beijing was also quick to speak out.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs instead called for the “international community to step up efforts to de-escalate conflicts and prevent regional turmoil from having a greater impact on global economic development”.
Beijing’s stance throughout the conflict remained true to its longstanding noninterference approach to foreign hostilities. But experts say it did little to help shore up its ambition of becoming an influential player in the Middle East, and instead exposed the limitations of its clout in the region.
Why China was worried
Unlike some countries, and the United States in particular, China traditionally approaches foreign policy “through a lens of strategic pragmatism rather than ideological solidarity”, said Evangeline Cheng, a research associate at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute.
This approach means China will always focus on protecting its economic interests, of which it has many in the Middle East, Cheng told Al Jazeera.
China has investments in Israel’s burgeoning tech sector and its Belt and Road infrastructure project spans Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
Critically, China relies on the Middle East for more than half of its crude oil imports, and it’s the top consumer of Iranian oil. A protracted war would have disrupted its oil supplies, as would an Iranian blockade of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz – something threatened by Tehran’s parliament during the conflict.
“War and security instability not only undermines Chinese investment and trade and business… but also the oil price and gas energy security in general,” said Alam Saleh, a senior Lecturer in Iranian Studies at the Australian National University.
“Therefore, China seeks stability, and it disagrees and opposes any kind of military solution for any type of conflict and confrontations, no matter with whom,” he said.
John Gong, a professor of economics at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, told Al Jazeera that China’s top concern through the conflict was to avoid “skyrocketing oil prices” that would threaten its energy security.
Flexing diplomatic muscle, protecting economic might
Aware of China’s friendly relations with Iran and Beijing’s economic fears, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Beijing to keep Tehran from closing the Strait of Hormuz as ceasefire negotiations stumbled forward this week.
It was a brief moment of acknowledgement of Beijing’s influence, but experts say China’s overall diplomatic influence remains limited.
“China’s offer to mediate highlights its desire to be seen as a responsible global player, but its actual leverage remains limited,” Cheng said. “Without military capabilities or deep political influence in the region, and with Israel wary of Beijing’s ties to Iran, China’s role is necessarily constrained.”
To be sure, Beijing has demonstrated its ability to broker major diplomatic deals in the region. In 2023, it mediated the normalisation of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. While seen as a huge diplomatic win for China, experts say Beijing owed much of its success to fellow mediators, Oman and Iraq. China also mediated an agreement between Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah, in July 2024, under which they committed to working together on Gaza’s governance after the end of Israel’s ongoing war on the enclave.
But William Yang, a senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said the odds were stacked against China from the beginning of the latest conflict due to Israel’s wariness towards its relationship with Iran.
In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year “strategic partnership”, and Iran is an active participant in the Belt and Road project. Iran has also joined the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and this year took part in China’s “Maritime Security Belt” naval exercises.
Iran’s “resolute opposition to American hegemony” also aligns well with China’s diplomatic interests more broadly, compared with Israel’s close ties to the US, Yang said.
China’s dilemma
It’s a scenario that could be repeated in the future, he said.
“This case also reinforces the dilemma that China faces: while it wants to be viewed as a great power that is capable of mediating in major global conflicts, its close relationship with specific parties in some of the ongoing conflicts diminishes Beijing’s ability to play such a role,” Yang said.
For now, Beijing will continue to rely on the US as a security guarantor in the region, he added.
“It’s clear that China will continue to focus on deepening economic engagement with countries in the Middle East while taking advantage of the US presence in the region, which remains the primary security guarantor for regional countries,” Yang said.
“On the other hand, the US involvement in the conflict, including changing the course of the war by bombing Iranian nuclear sites, creates the condition for China to take the moral high ground in the diplomatic sphere and present itself as the more restrained, calm and responsible major power,” he said.
Aljazeera.com
A new investigation by The New York Times claims Sudan’s military ran an organized program in 2024 to develop and produce chlorine-based munitions, escalating long-standing allegations of chemical weapons use in the country’s war.
According to the report, the Times reviewed nearly 150 documents, plus photos, videos, audio recordings and thousands of messages. The materials describe months of work to design, test and manufacture about 300 bombs filled with chlorine.
Brigadier General Tariq Hussein is named as one of the principal supervisors. The documents detail a munition that combined explosives with large quantities of chlorine, and tests carried out before production.
One of the most serious claims involves the source of the chemical. The dossier alleges that some chlorine was taken from a water-treatment facility in Omdurman, at a time when Sudan is facing cholera outbreaks and a collapse of basic services.
The investigation also points to senior leadership. Voice and text messages reportedly implicate army chief Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in knowledge of the program, and in orders to “remove all traces” after U.S. pressure and sanctions.
This is not the first time chemical weapons have been alleged in Sudan. Independent.ng reported that the Sudanese Alliance for Rights filed a case at the International Criminal Court against four senior Port Sudan Authority leaders, including al-Burhan, accusing them of using chemical weapons and committing serious violations against civilians. The lawsuit also names Yasser al-Atta, Shams al-Din al-Kabashi and Major General Taher Mohammed, and calls for an urgent ICC investigation.
The U.S. has already acted on earlier findings.
Independent.ng noted that Washington imposed additional penalties in May 2025 over the alleged use of chemical weapons, further linking Sudan’s war to international politics.
Chlorine is permitted for water purification, but using it as a weapon violates the Chemical Weapons Convention, which Sudan ratified. Experts say its civilian availability makes it easier to obtain and harder to monitor than military-grade agents.
With the conflict since April 2023 already causing mass displacement and famine, rights groups are now calling for an independent international investigation with access to sites, documents and the chain of command.
The retired Nigerian Army Major General, Danjuma Hamisu Ali-Keffi, has alleged that two prominent members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) secretly sought confidential records on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu from United States government agencies.
Ali-Keffi, a former General Officer Commanding (GOC) 1 Division of the Nigerian Army, made the claim while speaking about the events that shaped Tinubu’s emergence as the APC presidential candidate.
According to him, the alleged attempt was brought to his attention by former Director of the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), Modibbo Hamman-Tukur.
The retired general said the incident happened during the period when powerful figures within the APC were struggling to determine who would secure the party’s ticket for the 2023 presidential election.
Ali-Keffi said the information came to him while he was serving as Commander of Operation Service Wide, an operation he described as being focused on terrorism financing and the leadership structures of terrorist organisations.
He explained that Hamman-Tukur later told him about an alleged move by two influential APC figures who were opposed to Tinubu’s presidential ambition.
According to Ali-Keffi, the individuals allegedly gained access to the office of the NFIU director without authorisation and sent requests to American government agencies for information concerning Tinubu.
“Two prominent APC people who were against Tinubu entered illegally into the office of NFIU director and sent messages to the US government agencies requesting confidential records of Bola Ahmed Tinubu on those issues – terrorism financing,” Ali-Keffi said.
The retired military officer said the former NFIU director was uncomfortable with the development.
He claimed Hamman-Tukur later went to his office at about 2am after becoming aware of what was happening.
According to Ali-Keffi, the people allegedly involved realised that the NFIU director had arrived and subsequently left the office.
Ali-Keffi further claimed that a response was later received from the United States concerning the request.
He, however, said he was not aware of the exact information contained in the response.
“I don’t know what the record is or related to current issues regarding his forfeiture and other issues, if I am not mistaken,” he said.
The former army commander was careful to distinguish between the alleged request for information and any conclusion about Tinubu.
He said he had no personal knowledge of the contents of the records allegedly requested from the US authorities.
He also did not claim that the records established that Tinubu committed any offence.
Instead, he said his account was based on information he received from Hamman-Tukur at the time.
Ali-Keffi also alleged that NFIU officials connected to the incident were later dismissed. He said the matter eventually became the subject of legal proceedings.
The retired general further brought former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, into the account.
Ali-Keffi alleged that El-Rufai was aware of some of the information relating to the request for Tinubu’s records.
He said the former Kaduna governor was among the political figures who had knowledge of the matter but did not support the idea of using confidential information against Tinubu.
Tinubu eventually defeated other contenders at the APC presidential primary in June 2022.
He went on to defeat Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party in the February 2023 presidential election.
Ali-Keffi said his own decision to support Tinubu at the time was influenced partly by El-Rufai’s argument that power should move from the North to the South.
He recalled that the argument was based on the need to maintain a sense of balance and national unity after former President Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner, had completed his second term.
The retired general said the political situation could have been different if the alleged information obtained from the United States had been made public before the APC primary.
“Had people like the former NFIU Director and people like El-Rufai who were in the know, who were aware of that documents that were sent in respect of candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu, had they allowed it to get to public domain at that time, I believe it would have perhaps hurt the candidaty of Ahmed Bola Tinubu. Certainly, he wouldn’t have gotten the ticket to fly the flag of APC at that time,” Ali-Keffi said.
Several prominent politicians had shown interest in the APC presidential ticket before Tinubu eventually emerged as the party’s candidate.
Ali-Keffi said those considerations played an important role in the eventual decision by some politicians to back Tinubu.
He also recounted a separate conversation involving former Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) chairman, Muhammad Nami, and an unnamed powerful minister who was said to have been close to Buhari.
According to Ali-Keffi, Nami approached the minister during the United Nations General Assembly in New York in an effort to persuade him to support Tinubu.
The retired general said the minister expressed reservations about Tinubu and warned that he could take action against some people if he eventually became president.
“Look, Ahmed Tinubu is going to come after them. He was going to do this and that. You people don’t know this,” Ali-Keffi recalled the minister as saying.
Nami, according to Ali-Keffi, continued to make the case for a Southern presidency and argued that handing the APC ticket to a Southern candidate would promote national balance.
However, years after the 2023 election, Ali-Keffi said he now regrets his decision to support Tinubu.
“I regret actually voting for him,” he said.
He also stated that he would not vote for the ruling party in the next election.
“I’m not going to vote APC next election,” Ali-Keffi said.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has published the personal particulars of candidates nominated for the 2027 presidential and National Assembly elections, with President Bola Tinubu’s nomination documents showing that the sections for his primary and secondary education were left blank.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has published the personal particulars of candidates nominated for the 2027 presidential and National Assembly elections, with President Bola Tinubu’s nomination documents showing that the sections for his primary and secondary education were left blank.
In a related development, POLITICS NIGERIA reported in August that fresh controversy had emerged over Tinubu’s academic credentials.
This came after the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) explained why his primary and secondary school certificates were not included among the documents displayed for the 2027 election.
The commission said it displayed the documents submitted by candidates and did not have the authority to demand additional credentials or alter the information contained in their submissions.
Source: Politics Nigeria
The Nigerian Ambassador-designate to Mexico, Reno Omokri, has disclosed that records from the United States, US, Federal Bureau of Investigation, FBI, cleared suspicions that President Bola Tinubu is 90 years old.
Omokri disclosed that a letter from the FBI, sent via the US Embassy in Lagos and addressed to the Nigerian government, revealed that Tinubu was born on March 29, 1952.
Recall that the African Democratic Congress, ADC, presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, had claimed that he had evidence that Tinubu is 90 years old.
Atiku disclosed that he would tender the evidence in court.
However, Omokri dismissed Atiku’s claim during an interview on the City Boy Movement’s media one-on-one podcast with Otega Ogra, a Senior Special Assistant to Tinubu on Digital and New Media, yesterday.
According to Omokri: “First of all, Atiku was never my principal; he’s my friend. I have a document here from the FBI via the American Embassy. At that time, it was in Lagos, and I can read it for you.
“It’s a letter to the Nigerian government and Inspector-General of Police, Tafa Balogun, at that time.
“In relation to your letter dated February 3, 2003, regarding Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a record check of the Federal Bureau of Investigation National Crime Information Centre was conducted.
“The result of the check was negative for any criminal arrest records, wants or warrants for Bola Tinubu.
“Another thing is that this is just a complete vindication of Tinubu. But notice that the FBI records have the President’s date of birth, which is March 29, 1952. So, this document destroys anybody trying to say that the President is 90 years old.”
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