Business
Petroleum Sector Retards National Progress
NNPCL is the only state-owned oil producing organization in the entire world which has become a perpetual drag on the nation’s progress. Last week, just as the nation was celebrating the declaration of Ntn profits from operations last year, Nigerians were once again reminded that very little has changed in the management of the affairs of the most important business organization in Nigeria. Until new evidence surfaces indicating a new re-orientation of corporate governance, the NNPCL will find it difficult to shed its negative image. For the most part, nothing seems to work well in the organization.
“Power tends to corrupt; and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”
Lord Acton, 1834-1902.
Late President Yar’Adua and former President Jonathan appointed Ministers who served themselves more than Nigeria, and, although they were not well supervised, the two Presidents were personally above reproach with regard to the operations of the NNPC. Failure to ensure that the mandatory Turn Around Maintenance, TAM, was carried out, as and when due was the only error which can be justifiably charged to their accounts.
Buhari returned Nigeria to the discredited President/Minister approach to governance. It was a monumental disaster. Unlike when he was Petroleum Minister in 1973 and left office in a cloud of financial uncertainty, the sector had become highly technical; and only very few people in any country could successfully manage it. Buhari was not one of them.
He left an unmitigated disaster behind. One of them was the N8tn Crude-for-Loans agreement reached to finance budget deficits incurred by the FG. Under the agreements, 213,000 barrels of crude oil were daily reserved to service the loans.
Given that, at the time, daily output of crude was about 1.4 million barrels a day, daily net production was under 1.2 million barrels each day. Meanwhile, the budgets each year were based on 2 million barrels per day; and later, Alhaji Dangote was promised all the crude required to run his 600,000 barrels refinery. TAMs were not carried out; petrol was imported in large quantities and fuel subsidy payments escalated to untenable proportions. The stage was set for our present predicament.
“828M litres of fuel imported to avert nationwide shortage.” News, December 1, 2025.
Tinubu came into office and applied a shock treatment to the economy which almost killed the patient. Divinely, the nation survived the therapy is now gradually getting out of the intensive care unit. A recovery is now underway – even if tentative. Still, it is undeniable that the economy might be turning the corner. The Organised Private Sector, OPS, has demonstrated resilience, once again, as it did when the Structural Adjustment Programme, SAP, was introduced in the 1980s. There is faint light at the end of the dark tunnel. There is however, an elephant in the room – NNPCL.
Notwithstanding the profits recently declared by the company, the overall performance this year has been underwhelming.
The news report in reference touched on some of the problems. According to the reporter, “Fuel security slowed in October as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied only an average of 17.1 million litres per day of the nation’s petrol needs, forcing the country to rely heavily on imports, despite earlier hopes of self-sufficiency.”
In reality, the hope of self-sufficiency which was based on the assumption that Dangote would be fully supplied with crude was delusory at best. Dangote’s refinery could not attain full capacity in 2025; even if the crude promised was fully delivered. Furthermore, Dangote was not expected to be the sole supplier of petrol to Nigerians. NNPCL, under the former Group Managing Director, Mele Kyari, requested for and was given $2.9 billion to revive the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries; and get them to start supplying fuel. Promises were made to start production by December 2024.
We are now in December 2025. After months of shameless deceit, including reported supply of fuel by the two refineries, Nigerians woke up to the truth. Funds provided for another TAM by NNPCL had vanished with no fuel being produced. That has been the history of the NNPCL since all the four refineries produced petrol during the Babangida administration – a feat which has not been repeated by any other government since 1993.
The NNPC(L) has consistently duped Nigeria because our governments have repeatedly appointed untrustworthy individuals to manage the business. Their crimes have been overlooked by Presidents and the National Assembly for reasons most of us can only guess because nobody has been prosecuted in Nigeria yet.
NNPC(L) ROBIN HOODS
Robin Hood, the famed fairy tale English robber, took from the rich to give to the poor.
Meanwhile, two former Directors of the NNPC(L) have been successfully prosecuted and sentenced in the United States for stealing Nigerian money and laundering the proceeds of crime in the US. The funds stolen in Nigeria were forfeited to American states. The robbers of NNPC(L) rob Nigeria to enrich wealthy nations even more.
CRUDE PRODUCTION PROMISES UNFULFILLED
“Promises like [cookies] are made to be broken.” Jonathan Swift, 1667-1745.
Nothing is more dangerous than a convincing illusion. Nigerian governments have operated on one for over ten years; and NNPC(L) was responsible for it. Nigeria’s budgets in the last twelve years have been based on two million barrels per day crude oil production. NNPC(L) directors invariably accept the budget estimates for crude production. In no single month was the target achieved. That fact has never stopped NNPC(L) from repeating the same promise to Presidents – who were too eager to be deceived. The repercussions have been devastating.
Expected crude oil revenue estimates were never achieved; the increasing negative variances generated were largely responsible for the escalating national debt – of which the N8tn is just a small fraction. Question is: when will NNPC(L) play a positive role?
Petrol and cooking gas prices declined year-on-year in December 2025, signalling a gradual easing of household energy costs, according to separate reports released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Naija News reports that data from the bureau showed that both Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), commonly used for cooking, and Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, recorded notable price reductions compared with December 2024, alongside modest month-on-month declines.
The NBS noted that while the downward trend was observed across most states and geopolitical zones, prices continued to vary widely depending on location.
5kg Of Cooking Gas Price Drops By 25%
According to the report, the average price for refilling a 5kg cylinder of LPG declined by 1.20 per cent month-on-month, falling from ₦5,425.78 in November 2025 to ₦5,360.43 in December 2025.
On a year-on-year basis, the price fell sharply by 25.31 per cent, down from ₦7,177.27 recorded in December 2024.
Confirming the trend, the NBS stated, “The average retail price for refilling a 5kg cylinder of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas) decreased by 1.20 per cent on a month-on-month basis,” adding that the year-on-year decline stood at 25.31 per cent.”
A state-level analysis showed that Kaduna recorded the highest average price for refilling a 5kg cylinder at ₦5,838.66, followed by Jigawa at ₦5,825.09 and Osun at ₦5,777.80.
On the lower end, Katsina recorded the cheapest average price at ₦4,855.80.
Similarly, the average retail price for refilling a 12.5kg cylinder of LPG fell by 0.74 per cent month-on-month, declining from ₦13,538.79 in November 2025 to ₦13,438.90 in December 2025.
Year-on-year, the price dropped by 22.20 per cent from ₦17,274.16 recorded in December 2024.
On a state-by-state basis, Abia recorded the highest average price for refilling a 12.5kg cylinder at ₦14,489.96, followed by Osun at ₦14,444.50 and Delta at ₦14,393.17, the bureau said.
Petrol Price Dips To ₦1,048
The NBS also reported a decline in the average retail price of petrol.
According to the report, the average price of Premium Motor Spirit stood at ₦1,048.63 in December 2025, representing an 11.81 per cent decrease compared with ₦1,189.12 recorded in December 2024.
The bureau stated, “The average retail price paid by consumers for Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol) for December 2025 was ₦1,048.63.”
On a month-on-month basis, petrol prices declined by 1.20 per cent, down from ₦1,061.35 recorded in November 2025.
Further analysis showed that Kogi State recorded the highest average petrol price at ₦1,104.45, while Oyo State had the lowest at ₦996.55.
Regionally, the North East emerged as the most expensive zone for petrol, while the South West recorded the lowest average prices.
Nigeria’s naira recorded one of its strongest performances in months on Tuesday, January 27, 2026, appreciating sharply against the US dollar at the official foreign exchange window amid improving liquidity and rising confidence in the country’s FX reforms.
The local currency strengthened to around ₦1,400 per dollar at the official market, marking its firmest level since the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN implemented sweeping FX reforms.
The move signals easing pressure on the naira and renewed optimism among investors and market participants.
According to the CBN’s daily foreign exchange report, the naira closed at ₦1,401.22 per dollar, representing a 1.27 percent appreciation on the day.
Market operators described the move as a reflection of improved dollar supply and stronger participation by banks and other authorised dealers.
Traders said the official window saw increased volumes, with the improved liquidity helping to narrow volatility and reduce speculative demand.
The latest performance reinforces the view that the reforms aimed at unifying exchange rates and improving price discovery are beginning to yield results.
The positive momentum extended to the parallel market, where the naira also posted modest gains.
Channel checks showed the local currency appreciating by about 0.33 per cent to trade around ₦1,476 per dollar. While the gap between the official and parallel rates remains, analysts say the narrowing spread reflects improving confidence across both the regulated and informal segments of the FX market.
According to a report by MarketForces Africa, reduced arbitrage opportunities and stronger supply conditions are helping to stabilise pricing.
The naira’s rally comes against the backdrop of rising external reserves, which have strengthened the CBN’s ability to intervene when necessary and support market liquidity.
Higher reserves are widely viewed as a key confidence signal for foreign investors, particularly portfolio investors who remain sensitive to currency risk.
Market watchers say consistent inflows from export earnings, improved remittance flows, and cautious monetary management have all contributed to the improved outlook for the naira in recent weeks.
Clarivo Oil and Gas, led by Chief Obidike Chukwuebuka, has announced plans to build a world-class oil refinery in Calabar, Cross River State, aimed at boosting Nigeria’s downstream oil and gas sector.
Speaking to journalists, Chief Obidike said the project will be implemented in phases, in collaboration with foreign partners to bring advanced technical expertise and international industry standards.
The planned refinery will feature state-of-the-art technologies, including crude distillation, catalytic cracking, and hydrotreating units, enabling the production of high-quality petroleum products such as petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel.
The phased approach will begin with feasibility studies and front-end engineering design, followed by construction of core processing units, and conclude with installation of secondary units and commissioning.
Chief Obidike noted that the refinery aims to increase domestic refining capacity, reduce dependence on imported petroleum products, and enhance Nigeria’s energy security. He added that the project is expected to create significant employment across engineering, construction, operations, and logistics, while facilitating technology transfer through partnerships with international EPC contractors and investors.
On funding, he revealed that agreements with foreign stakeholders are being finalized to provide both technical and financial support. The refinery is projected to come online within five years, following the completion of all project phases and regulatory approvals.
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