Politics
BREAKING: AI Predicts Winner of Osun Governorship Election
As Osun State heads towards the August 15, 2026 governorship election, the battle between incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party and Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO) of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is becoming one of the most closely watched political contests in the country.
While the election remains too close to call with certainty, a careful assessment of the current political situation gives Governor Ademola Adeleke a slight edge over Oyebamiji.
The contest is increasingly shaping up as a two-horse race, although African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate Najeem Salaam remains a notable third-force contender.
Why Adeleke May Have the Advantage
One of Adeleke’s biggest strengths is incumbency. The governor is seeking to retain the office and has been campaigning on projects and programmes implemented during his first term.
His campaign has also received political boosts from defections by some former APC figures and associates of former Governor Gboyega Oyetola. Several former commissioners and aides have reportedly moved towards Adeleke’s camp.
Adeleke has additionally received endorsements from some traditional security outfits and ethnic groups in the state, although such endorsements should not automatically be interpreted as guaranteed votes.
Another important factor is the governor’s political visibility. Having contested and won the governorship previously, Adeleke already has an established electoral structure and name recognition across the state.
Why Oyebamiji Could Still Shock Adeleke
Despite Adeleke’s advantages, Oyebamiji should not be underestimated.
The APC candidate has the backing of the federal ruling party and former Governor Oyetola, while the APC is attempting to regain control of Osun after losing the governorship in 2022. Analysts have described the contest as a critical battle for the APC and a test of its ability to recover political ground in the state.
An earlier opinion poll published in January gave Oyebamiji 52 per cent against Adeleke’s 38 per cent, although that survey is several months old and should not be treated as a current projection of the final result.
The APC has also been working to consolidate its structures across the state and present Oyebamiji as an alternative to the incumbent.
The Major Problem for APC
The biggest concern for Oyebamiji may be internal cohesion.
Reports in recent weeks have highlighted resignations and defections within the Osun APC, with some former party members moving towards Adeleke’s camp.
If the APC fails to unite its grassroots structures before election day completely, Adeleke could benefit significantly.
Prediction
Prediction: Ademola Adeleke is slightly more likely to win the Osun 2026 governorship election.
Ademola Adeleke (Accord): 50%
Bola Oyebamiji (APC): 40%
Najeem Salaam (ADC): 10%
These figures are mere analytical estimates, not opinion polls or official forecasts. The election could still swing towards Oyebamiji if the APC succeeds in consolidating its structures, increasing turnout in its strongholds and converting federal political influence into actual votes.
However, based on incumbency, Adeleke’s existing grassroots structure, recent defections to his camp and the current political momentum, the prediction at this stage is that Adeleke could narrowly retain the Osun Government House.
The outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout, party organisation, election-day mobilisation and the actual votes cast and counted on August 15.
Predicted Winner: Ademola Adeleke — Accord Party.
Politics
2027 Election: Four Aggrieved Oyo APC Governorship Aspirants Take Fresh Action
Four governorship aspirants of the All Progressives Congress in Oyo State, on Sunday, reconciled with the party’s governorship candidate, Senator Sharafadeen Alli, and pledged to work for the party’s victory in the 2027 general elections.
The aspirants are former Deputy Governor of the state, Rauf Olaniyan; Oyedele Alao; Musbau Asanike; and Dr Ololade Bakare.
The reconciliation followed a series of meetings by the APC Governorship Aspirants’ Reconciliation Committee set up to address disagreements arising from the party’s governorship primary.
Chairman of the committee, Senator Olufemi Lanlehin, announced the development at a press conference held at a Blueline Hotel in the Akinyele Local Government Area of the state on Sunday.
Lanlehin said although some of the 11 aspirants who contested the primary had reservations about the process and its outcome, the need to build a stronger party ahead of the 2027 election had made reconciliation necessary.
He said, “We listened to their concerns and disappointments and, importantly, found that we have far more that unites us than divides us.
“Today, we are pleased to announce that four distinguished governorship aspirants have agreed to put the contest behind them and work with Senator Sharafadeen Alli in the interest of the party and our victory in the 2027 General Election.”
Lanlehin described the development as a victory for “collective interest over individual ambition, reconciliation over division and unity over factionalism.
“The party could only win the 2027 governorship election through unity,” noting that “no candidate could rely solely on those who supported him during the primary.
“No candidate can win a general election by relying only on those who supported him in the primary. A governorship election is won by a united political family.”
Meanwhile, in a communique issued after the reconciliation meetings, the aspirants pledged their “unwavering and unflinching support” for President Bola Tinubu, Alli and all other APC candidates in the 2027 elections.
They also pledged to cooperate with the party and its campaign structures to ensure victory at the polls.
The committee said the reconciliation process with the APC “G6” governorship aspirants had been concluded, except for Barrister Akeem Agbaje.
The aspirants also expressed their desire to meet with President Tinubu at his convenience to reaffirm their support for his 2027 presidential bid.
Source: The Nation
Politics
JUST IN: Tinubu Faces Fresh Challenge as Atiku, Obi, 4 Others Plot New Coalition, Date Emerges
President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) may confront major trouble ahead of the 2027 general elections as a coalition of concerned Nigerians known as the G100 says it has wrapped up a first round of consultations with the leadership of six opposition political parties as it pushes to build a united front ahead of the 2027 general election.
In a statement signed by Salihu Moh. Lukman on Monday, the group said its engagements covered the African Democratic Congress (ADC), led by Atiku Abubakar; the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), where both Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso hold principal positions; and the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), linked to Seyi Makinde.
According to the group, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) were also part of the consultations.
Vanguard reported that the G100 described talks with national chairmen, presidential candidates and their running mates as frank, constructive and encouraging.
The outreach came after the G100 published an Open Letter on August 2, 2026, addressed to opposition leaders, civil society figures and Nigerians of good conscience.
That letter laid out what the group called the Doctrine of Necessary Democratic Opposition, arguing that a credible and competitive opposition is essential to the health of Nigeria’s democracy.
The group said its conversations with party leaders revealed a shared awareness that closer collaboration is needed before the 2027 polls.
Leaders acknowledged, according to the G100, that achieving a credible opposition would demand sacrifice, compromise and a willingness to put national interest ahead of party or personal ambitions.
Building on the outcome of those talks, the G100 said it was preparing to host a Summit of Opposition Parties in Abuja on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. The group described the summit as a structured platform where parties would begin working out the practical terms of any opposition alliance.
The coalition said any framework that comes out of the process must protect the legitimate interests of all parties involved while keeping the welfare of Nigerians as the top priority.
The G100 also repeated a warning at the heart of its doctrine: that a fragmented opposition weakens the choices available to Nigerian voters and ultimately serves neither the parties seeking power nor the people they hope to represent.
Politics
Osun Ex-Governor Dumps Adeleke 6 Days to Election; Give Reasons
As political permutations change ahead of August 15 gubernatorial poll in Osun, former governor of the state, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, on Sunday advanced reasons for not backing the re-election bid of Governor Ademola Adeleke, who is contesting on the platform of Accord.
Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, alongside former Secretary to the Osun State Government (SSG), Alhaji Fatai Akinbade, and former national vice chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), South West, Tajudeen Oladipo, with their supporters officially adopted Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC) popularly known as AMBO, as their candidate for Saturday’s governorship poll.
In an address delivered on behalf of other stakeholders at WOCDIF Event Centre, in Osogbo, the former governor said their resolve to back Oyebamiji was informed by the need for a new direction in the overall interest of Osun State.
He said despite their contributions to the emergence of Adeleke as the governor in 2022, the lack of the inclusiveness in his administration had severed political ties with major stakeholders.
According to Oyinlola, “we were among the major stakeholders who worked tirelessly towards the emergence of the present administration under the platform of the PDP.
“Politics is temporary, but Osun State is permanent. Political parties may change, political alliances may change, administrations may come and go, but the people of Osun will remain. Our responsibility as leaders is therefore to make decisions that will protect the future of our people.
“We believed in that project. We supported it. We mobilised our people for it. We invested our time, energy and political capital in it because we believed that it represented the aspirations of our people. Unfortunately, along the line, things began to fall apart.
“One of the major issues that have created this unfortunate situation, in our considered view, is the lack of inclusiveness in the governance of our state. We believe strongly that no party or government can succeed sustainably when it does not carry its people and leaders along, “he stated.
While clarifying that they still remained members of the PDP, Oyinlola added: “Our membership of the PDP is not in question. We are proud members of the party, and we acknowledge the sacrifices, contributions and struggles that have brought the PDP to where it is today.
“However, being members of a political party does not mean that we should abandon our conscience or the larger interest of the people we have served.
Party loyalty is important, but the interest of Osun State must always come first.
“Rather, we are exercising our conscience as stakeholders who have served this state and who believe that, at this particular moment, Osun State requires a different direction.
“It is on this basis that we have resolved to officially declare our support for Mr. Bola Oyebamiji, popularly known as AMBO, the governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
“Our support for AMBO is therefore a decision born out of necessity, conviction and our sincere desire for the progress of Osun State. Our political identity remains with the PDP, but our electoral decision at this moment is to support a candidate who we believe can provide the kind of inclusive leadership that Osun State deserves,” Oyinlola remarked.
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