With data revenue now accounting for nearly half of total income, MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa are betting big on bytes over voice.

What used to be a value-added service is now the frontline of growth and margin expansion.

But as tariffs rise, consumer habits shift, and digital infrastructure deepens, one question looms for investors:

Can this shift to data finally lift MTN Nigeria out of its retained losses and help Airtel sustain its dollar dividend payout?

The answers lie in how each telco is leveraging data to transform its financial future. Let us start with MTN Nigeria

MTN Nigeria:

After reporting a staggering N440 billion loss after tax in 2024, largely due to foreign exchange shocks that eroded the bottom line, the telco staged a major turnaround in Q1 2025 with a N133.6 billion profit after tax.

While the stabilization of forex markets and growth in fintech revenue contributed, another catalyst was the explosive growth in data revenue.

In FY 2024, MTN reported N1.59 trillion in data revenue, up 49% year-on-year, making up 47% of total revenue, a major structural shift from the voice-led years.

That momentum continued into Q1 2025, with data revenue of N528.98 billion, accounting for 50% of total revenue for the quarter.

Subscriber metrics reinforce the trend:

• Active data users grew by 7% to 47.7 million.
• Data traffic rose by 42.9% year-on-year.
• Average data usage per subscriber jumped 33.6% to 11.2GB and even higher at 13.2GB in Q4.

According to the company:

“The performance in data revenue was supported by an increase in the number of active data users, increased usage, and enhancements to the quality and coverage of our network.

We continued to drive smartphone penetration and 4G adoption while implementing pricing actions to support revenue growth.”

These pricing actions, in addition to improved user experience, were made possible by MTN’s continued investment in digital infrastructure.

With increased 4G and now early 5G rollout in select zones, data speeds have improved, allowing the company to deepen monetization per megabyte.

So how does this translate to the bottom line?
MTN’s gross margin on data services is significantly higher than on voice, primarily because incremental costs per gigabyte decline as traffic scales. Simply put, once the infrastructure is in place, more usage equals better profitability.

Assuming the Q1 2025 trajectory holds, MTN could post over N2 trillion in data revenue for FY 2025 conservatively.

With EBITDA margin guidance at “at least mid-40%,” that means MTN could pull in N900 billion to N1 trillion in EBITDA from total revenue this year.

Compare that to N769.7 billion EBITDA in FY 2024, and you start to see just how powerful the data engine is.

If depreciation, amortization, and finance costs hold steady, and the naira remains relatively stable, MTN could be looking at full-year net profit north of N400 billion, essentially reversing 2024’s entire loss.

That would not only wipe out retained losses but position the telco to resume dividend payments by 2026 at the latest or even sooner, depending on board decisions.

As of Q1 2025, MTN’s trailing 12-month earnings per share (EPS) now stands at N5.96, pushing its price-to-earnings ratio to 53.56x.

The stock closed at N319.20 on June 5, 2025, reflecting a strong 59.6% year-to-date gain largely on the back of improving investor sentiment and the prospect of profitability recovery.

While challenges remain, FX volatility, infrastructure costs, and capex intensity, the return of profitability suggests that the darkest days may be behind the telco.

Smart investors should watch data on ARPU, user growth, and operating margins in the coming quarters. These are the levers that could flip MTN from survival mode back to a dividend-paying powerhouse.

Airtel Africa
Just like MTN, Airtel Nigeria is leaning on data to drive its business forward. While its headline numbers may look weak due to exchange rate issues, the real picture underneath tells a very different story.

In the year ending March 2025, Airtel Nigeria’s reported revenue dropped by 30% to $1.045 billion, with data income falling 26% to $483 million.

But that’s mostly because of the weaker naira. When you strip out the currency effects and look at its performance in constant terms, revenue rose 36%, and data grew by an impressive 45%.

The company explained it this way: “Our data business remains a key growth engine, supported by more smartphones, wider 4G coverage, and better network capacity.”

Data now makes up 44% of Airtel Nigeria’s total revenue, only slightly lower than 46% the previous year and not far behind MTN Nigeria’s 47% in 2024 and 50% in Q1 2025.

Airtel also saw growth in its customer base. It added about 1.7 million new data users, bringing the total to 29.1 million, while average income per user rose to $1.9 in the last quarter, a sign that more people are using more data and paying a little more for it.

Airtel Africa posted a $328 million profit after tax for FY 2025, a big turnaround from the $89 million loss it recorded the year before.

Can data sustain dividends?
In Nigeria alone, data generated $483 million in FY 2025, down due to exchange losses. But in constant currency, it was a 45% surge, pointing to strong underlying performance.

If this growth trend holds and ARPU rises moderately to $2 by Q4, Airtel Nigeria could generate over $550 million from data in the current financial year, even before factoring in FX gains or tariff increases.

Also, with data traffic climbing, data alone could account for 60–70% of its operating profit by next year. This position allows Airtel to comfortably cover its dividend, even if voice or mobile money slows down.

Indeed, Airtel Africa has already shown this confidence by declaring a $0.04 per share final dividend for FY 2025.

On the Nigerian Exchange, Airtel Africa’s share price stood at N2,372.50 as of June 5, 2025, showing a 10% year-to-date gain. It trades at a moderate price-to-earnings ratio of 26x, compared to MTN Nigeria’s 53.56x.

Nairametrics.com