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Airtel And MTN Set For Profit Surge In 2025

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Airtel And MTN Set For Profit Surge In 2025

With data revenue now accounting for nearly half of total income, MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa are betting big on bytes over voice.

What used to be a value-added service is now the frontline of growth and margin expansion.

But as tariffs rise, consumer habits shift, and digital infrastructure deepens, one question looms for investors:

Can this shift to data finally lift MTN Nigeria out of its retained losses and help Airtel sustain its dollar dividend payout?

The answers lie in how each telco is leveraging data to transform its financial future. Let us start with MTN Nigeria

MTN Nigeria:

After reporting a staggering N440 billion loss after tax in 2024, largely due to foreign exchange shocks that eroded the bottom line, the telco staged a major turnaround in Q1 2025 with a N133.6 billion profit after tax.

While the stabilization of forex markets and growth in fintech revenue contributed, another catalyst was the explosive growth in data revenue.

In FY 2024, MTN reported N1.59 trillion in data revenue, up 49% year-on-year, making up 47% of total revenue, a major structural shift from the voice-led years.

That momentum continued into Q1 2025, with data revenue of N528.98 billion, accounting for 50% of total revenue for the quarter.

Subscriber metrics reinforce the trend:

  • Active data users grew by 7% to 47.7 million.
  • Data traffic rose by 42.9% year-on-year.
  • Average data usage per subscriber jumped 33.6% to 11.2GB and even higher at 13.2GB in Q4.

According to the company:

“The performance in data revenue was supported by an increase in the number of active data users, increased usage, and enhancements to the quality and coverage of our network.

We continued to drive smartphone penetration and 4G adoption while implementing pricing actions to support revenue growth.”

These pricing actions, in addition to improved user experience, were made possible by MTN’s continued investment in digital infrastructure.

With increased 4G and now early 5G rollout in select zones, data speeds have improved, allowing the company to deepen monetization per megabyte.

So how does this translate to the bottom line?
MTN’s gross margin on data services is significantly higher than on voice, primarily because incremental costs per gigabyte decline as traffic scales. Simply put, once the infrastructure is in place, more usage equals better profitability.

Assuming the Q1 2025 trajectory holds, MTN could post over N2 trillion in data revenue for FY 2025 conservatively.

With EBITDA margin guidance at “at least mid-40%,” that means MTN could pull in N900 billion to N1 trillion in EBITDA from total revenue this year.

Compare that to N769.7 billion EBITDA in FY 2024, and you start to see just how powerful the data engine is.

If depreciation, amortization, and finance costs hold steady, and the naira remains relatively stable, MTN could be looking at full-year net profit north of N400 billion, essentially reversing 2024’s entire loss.

That would not only wipe out retained losses but position the telco to resume dividend payments by 2026 at the latest or even sooner, depending on board decisions.

As of Q1 2025, MTN’s trailing 12-month earnings per share (EPS) now stands at N5.96, pushing its price-to-earnings ratio to 53.56x.

The stock closed at N319.20 on June 5, 2025, reflecting a strong 59.6% year-to-date gain largely on the back of improving investor sentiment and the prospect of profitability recovery.

While challenges remain, FX volatility, infrastructure costs, and capex intensity, the return of profitability suggests that the darkest days may be behind the telco.

Smart investors should watch data on ARPU, user growth, and operating margins in the coming quarters. These are the levers that could flip MTN from survival mode back to a dividend-paying powerhouse.

Airtel Africa
Just like MTN, Airtel Nigeria is leaning on data to drive its business forward. While its headline numbers may look weak due to exchange rate issues, the real picture underneath tells a very different story.

In the year ending March 2025, Airtel Nigeria’s reported revenue dropped by 30% to $1.045 billion, with data income falling 26% to $483 million.

But that’s mostly because of the weaker naira. When you strip out the currency effects and look at its performance in constant terms, revenue rose 36%, and data grew by an impressive 45%.

The company explained it this way: “Our data business remains a key growth engine, supported by more smartphones, wider 4G coverage, and better network capacity.”

Data now makes up 44% of Airtel Nigeria’s total revenue, only slightly lower than 46% the previous year and not far behind MTN Nigeria’s 47% in 2024 and 50% in Q1 2025.

Airtel also saw growth in its customer base. It added about 1.7 million new data users, bringing the total to 29.1 million, while average income per user rose to $1.9 in the last quarter, a sign that more people are using more data and paying a little more for it.

Airtel Africa posted a $328 million profit after tax for FY 2025, a big turnaround from the $89 million loss it recorded the year before.

Can data sustain dividends?
In Nigeria alone, data generated $483 million in FY 2025, down due to exchange losses. But in constant currency, it was a 45% surge, pointing to strong underlying performance.

If this growth trend holds and ARPU rises moderately to $2 by Q4, Airtel Nigeria could generate over $550 million from data in the current financial year, even before factoring in FX gains or tariff increases.

Also, with data traffic climbing, data alone could account for 60–70% of its operating profit by next year. This position allows Airtel to comfortably cover its dividend, even if voice or mobile money slows down.

Indeed, Airtel Africa has already shown this confidence by declaring a $0.04 per share final dividend for FY 2025.

On the Nigerian Exchange, Airtel Africa’s share price stood at N2,372.50 as of June 5, 2025, showing a 10% year-to-date gain. It trades at a moderate price-to-earnings ratio of 26x, compared to MTN Nigeria’s 53.56x.

Nairametrics.com

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BREAKING: Presidency Finally Speaks After APC Governor Builds Beer Factory in Two Years

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Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Information and Strategy, has praised Benue State Governor Hyacinth Alia over the completion of the Food Basket Brewery, a facility his administration built from the ground up within two years.

Onanuga made the remarks while sharing a video of a visit by the presidential media team to the brewery in Benue State, sharing footage of the facility with the public. The brewery produces the Zeva beer brand and malt, and has so far employed over 2,000 people since it began operations.

Governor Alia initiated and completed the brewery project within his first two years in office. The facility represents one of the more visible industrial investments tied to his administration, introducing a locally branded product while creating thousands of direct jobs in a state historically known for agriculture rather than manufacturing.

The presidential media team’s visit drew attention to the scale of the project, with Onanuga pointing to it as evidence of tangible progress under the APC governor’s watch.

The timing of the visit carries political significance. Governor Alia is expected to seek re-election in the 2027 general elections, and the spotlight on the brewery comes as the ruling party looks to showcase achievements by its governors ahead of the polls.

The presidency’s statement has started generating mixed reactions from Nigerians. Below are some of their comments:

Obi Okafor wrote: “A reverend father built a local brewery; APC and Tinubu are praising him. Peter Obi built an international brewery; Reno, Bwala, Bayo and the rest of the APC gangs have been demonising him.”

Iwunna commented: “The same APC and its presidency that mock Peter Obi for brewery is celebrating brewery in Benue?”

Samuel tweeted: “I hope they will not also come after him by the time he dumps this party called APC, just like they always come after Peter Obi, saying instead of him building industry that will benefit Nigerians,

Real Samson, Esq. said: “That is what Tinubu should be doing. He should try to revive Ajaokuta Steel Company and Textile companies in Kaduna and Kano.”

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Tinubu Approves New Recruitment Into Federal Civil Service

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Nigeria, Benin Sign Integration Pact

President Bola Tinubu has approved the recruitment process for 3,252 verified Parent-Teacher Association teachers into the Federal Civil Service, a move aimed at addressing the persistent shortage of teachers in Federal Unity Colleges and improving the quality of education.

The Minister of Education, Dr Tunji Alausa, disclosed this in a statement issued on Thursday by his Special Adviser on Media and Communications, Ikharo Attah.

According to the minister, priority will be given to verified PTA teachers, many of whom have served in Federal Unity Colleges and Federal Technical Colleges for almost 25 years, allowing them to become part of the mainstream public service.

Alausa described the approval as a major intervention by the Tinubu administration and one of the most significant efforts to strengthen the teaching workforce, while recognising the contributions of thousands of PTA teachers who have sustained learning in federal schools over the years.

“This is a president who cares deeply for Nigeria and for the future of our country.

“The president has approved the recruitment of teachers. Priority will be given to absorbing verified PTA teachers, many of whom have served in our Federal Unity Colleges and Federal Technical Colleges for almost 25 years. This approval provides them with the opportunity to become part of the mainstream public service,” the minister said.

He said the recruitment followed a comprehensive verification exercise conducted by an inter-ministerial committee, which screened eligible PTA teachers across Federal Unity Colleges.

The exercise, he said, verified “3,252 teachers across the cadres of Education Officers, Assistant Education Officers and Technical Instructors, paving the way for their regularisation upon completion of all statutory requirements.”

Describing the development as a milestone under the Renewed Hope Agenda, Alausa said the recruitment would improve the teacher-student ratio in Federal Unity Colleges while rewarding teachers who had remained committed despite years of uncertainty.

According to him, integrating experienced PTA teachers into the federal public service would preserve institutional knowledge, strengthen classroom instruction and improve learning outcomes across the colleges.

“The recruitment forms part of the Federal Government’s broader efforts to improve teacher quality and reposition the colleges as centres of academic excellence,” he said.

The minister added that the education ministry would continue to work with relevant government agencies to conclude the remaining statutory processes required for the issuance of the final recruitment approval in line with public service regulations.

He thanked Tinubu for approving the exercise, saying the decision demonstrated the administration’s resolve to place education at the centre of national development.

“Investing in teachers is fundamental to building a stronger education system, as no education system can rise above the quality of its teachers,” he said.

Alausa assured all verified PTA teachers that the regularisation process would be concluded with transparency, fairness and due diligence.

He also reaffirmed the ministry’s commitment to implementing policies that strengthen the teaching profession, improve learning outcomes and ensure that learners in Federal Unity Colleges receive quality education from competent and dedicated teachers.

For years, Federal Unity Colleges have relied on PTA teachers engaged and paid by PTAs to bridge chronic staffing gaps caused by inadequate recruitment into the federal teaching service. Many of the teachers have worked in the colleges for between 10 and 25 years without permanent appointments, despite performing the same classroom responsibilities as regular government-employed teachers.

Successive administrations received appeals from the affected teachers and education stakeholders to regularise their appointments, arguing that the prolonged reliance on PTA-funded staff placed a financial burden on parents and created job insecurity for thousands of qualified teachers.

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BREAKING: Tinubu Takes Fresh Action After EFCC Freezes Osun Government Accounts

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President Bola Tinubu has directed the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to immediately approach the court to vacate an order freezing the bank accounts of the Osun State Government, saying the timing of the action could undermine public confidence in the forthcoming governorship election.

The President made this known in a statement issued on Thursday after it emerged that the EFCC had secured a court order on August 5, 2026, freezing the state’s accounts.

Tinubu said although he respects the independence of anti-corruption agencies and had no prior knowledge of the EFCC’s action, he was concerned that the move came just days before the Osun governorship election.

According to him, actions taken by federal institutions are often attributed to the Presidency, regardless of whether he was involved in the decision-making process.

“I feel deeply embarrassed, not by the EFCC’s exercise of its mandate backed by a court order, but by the timing of the agency’s action,” the President stated.

Tinubu reiterated that since assuming office, he has consistently allowed the EFCC and other law enforcement agencies to carry out their constitutional responsibilities independently, without political interference or executive directives.

He stressed that strong democratic institutions must operate within the law and without fear or favour, adding that he has deliberately avoided interfering in the operational activities of anti-corruption agencies.

The President, however, noted that while he had yet to receive the full details surrounding the EFCC’s decision to obtain the court order, the timing of the action was “inauspicious” given the proximity of the Osun governorship election.

He warned that no action should create the impression that any federal agency was being used to influence or interfere with the electoral process.

“In the overriding public interest of preserving public confidence and the integrity, credibility, and fairness of our democratic process, I have directed the EFCC to immediately proceed to the court to vacate the order and discontinue whatever action it has instituted against the Osun State Government in this regard,” Tinubu said.

The directive is expected to ease concerns over the freezing of the state’s accounts as political parties and stakeholders prepare for the governorship election in Osun State.

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