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Airtel And MTN Set For Profit Surge In 2025

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Airtel And MTN Set For Profit Surge In 2025

With data revenue now accounting for nearly half of total income, MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa are betting big on bytes over voice.

What used to be a value-added service is now the frontline of growth and margin expansion.

But as tariffs rise, consumer habits shift, and digital infrastructure deepens, one question looms for investors:

Can this shift to data finally lift MTN Nigeria out of its retained losses and help Airtel sustain its dollar dividend payout?

The answers lie in how each telco is leveraging data to transform its financial future. Let us start with MTN Nigeria

MTN Nigeria:

After reporting a staggering N440 billion loss after tax in 2024, largely due to foreign exchange shocks that eroded the bottom line, the telco staged a major turnaround in Q1 2025 with a N133.6 billion profit after tax.

While the stabilization of forex markets and growth in fintech revenue contributed, another catalyst was the explosive growth in data revenue.

In FY 2024, MTN reported N1.59 trillion in data revenue, up 49% year-on-year, making up 47% of total revenue, a major structural shift from the voice-led years.

That momentum continued into Q1 2025, with data revenue of N528.98 billion, accounting for 50% of total revenue for the quarter.

Subscriber metrics reinforce the trend:

  • Active data users grew by 7% to 47.7 million.
  • Data traffic rose by 42.9% year-on-year.
  • Average data usage per subscriber jumped 33.6% to 11.2GB and even higher at 13.2GB in Q4.

According to the company:

“The performance in data revenue was supported by an increase in the number of active data users, increased usage, and enhancements to the quality and coverage of our network.

We continued to drive smartphone penetration and 4G adoption while implementing pricing actions to support revenue growth.”

These pricing actions, in addition to improved user experience, were made possible by MTN’s continued investment in digital infrastructure.

With increased 4G and now early 5G rollout in select zones, data speeds have improved, allowing the company to deepen monetization per megabyte.

So how does this translate to the bottom line?
MTN’s gross margin on data services is significantly higher than on voice, primarily because incremental costs per gigabyte decline as traffic scales. Simply put, once the infrastructure is in place, more usage equals better profitability.

Assuming the Q1 2025 trajectory holds, MTN could post over N2 trillion in data revenue for FY 2025 conservatively.

With EBITDA margin guidance at “at least mid-40%,” that means MTN could pull in N900 billion to N1 trillion in EBITDA from total revenue this year.

Compare that to N769.7 billion EBITDA in FY 2024, and you start to see just how powerful the data engine is.

If depreciation, amortization, and finance costs hold steady, and the naira remains relatively stable, MTN could be looking at full-year net profit north of N400 billion, essentially reversing 2024’s entire loss.

That would not only wipe out retained losses but position the telco to resume dividend payments by 2026 at the latest or even sooner, depending on board decisions.

As of Q1 2025, MTN’s trailing 12-month earnings per share (EPS) now stands at N5.96, pushing its price-to-earnings ratio to 53.56x.

The stock closed at N319.20 on June 5, 2025, reflecting a strong 59.6% year-to-date gain largely on the back of improving investor sentiment and the prospect of profitability recovery.

While challenges remain, FX volatility, infrastructure costs, and capex intensity, the return of profitability suggests that the darkest days may be behind the telco.

Smart investors should watch data on ARPU, user growth, and operating margins in the coming quarters. These are the levers that could flip MTN from survival mode back to a dividend-paying powerhouse.

Airtel Africa
Just like MTN, Airtel Nigeria is leaning on data to drive its business forward. While its headline numbers may look weak due to exchange rate issues, the real picture underneath tells a very different story.

In the year ending March 2025, Airtel Nigeria’s reported revenue dropped by 30% to $1.045 billion, with data income falling 26% to $483 million.

But that’s mostly because of the weaker naira. When you strip out the currency effects and look at its performance in constant terms, revenue rose 36%, and data grew by an impressive 45%.

The company explained it this way: “Our data business remains a key growth engine, supported by more smartphones, wider 4G coverage, and better network capacity.”

Data now makes up 44% of Airtel Nigeria’s total revenue, only slightly lower than 46% the previous year and not far behind MTN Nigeria’s 47% in 2024 and 50% in Q1 2025.

Airtel also saw growth in its customer base. It added about 1.7 million new data users, bringing the total to 29.1 million, while average income per user rose to $1.9 in the last quarter, a sign that more people are using more data and paying a little more for it.

Airtel Africa posted a $328 million profit after tax for FY 2025, a big turnaround from the $89 million loss it recorded the year before.

Can data sustain dividends?
In Nigeria alone, data generated $483 million in FY 2025, down due to exchange losses. But in constant currency, it was a 45% surge, pointing to strong underlying performance.

If this growth trend holds and ARPU rises moderately to $2 by Q4, Airtel Nigeria could generate over $550 million from data in the current financial year, even before factoring in FX gains or tariff increases.

Also, with data traffic climbing, data alone could account for 60–70% of its operating profit by next year. This position allows Airtel to comfortably cover its dividend, even if voice or mobile money slows down.

Indeed, Airtel Africa has already shown this confidence by declaring a $0.04 per share final dividend for FY 2025.

On the Nigerian Exchange, Airtel Africa’s share price stood at N2,372.50 as of June 5, 2025, showing a 10% year-to-date gain. It trades at a moderate price-to-earnings ratio of 26x, compared to MTN Nigeria’s 53.56x.

Nairametrics.com

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FG Suspends 15% Import Tax On Petrol

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The Federal government of Nigeria has suspended the implementation of the proposed 15% import tax on petrol and diesel.

Naija News reports that this was announced in a statement on Thursday by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

The statement, signed by the NMDPRA Director, Public Affairs Department, George Ene-Ita, also assured Nigerians that there is an adequate supply of petroleum products in the country during the peak demand period of the incoming yuletide.

The authority advised members of the public against hoarding, panic buying, or other non-market-driven escalation of petroleum prices.

It would be recalled that President Bola Tinubu had approved a 15 per cent import duty on diesel and premium motor spirit (PMS), also known as petrol.

Naija News learnt that the private secretary to the president, Damilotun Aderemi, conveyed Tinubu’s approval to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

According to TheCable, Tinubu approved the request in a letter dated October 21, 2025, after the FIRS requested that the 15 per cent duty be applied to the cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) to align import costs with domestic realities.

The letter also stated that the implementation of the import duty will increase the price of a litre of petrol by an estimated ₦99.72 kobo.

However, the statement by NMDPRA on Thursday noted that “the implementation of the 15% ad-valorem import duty on imported Premium Motor Spirit and Diesel is no longer in view.”

It affirmed the commitment of the authority to ensuring a smooth and uninterrupted supply of petroleum products.

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Major Gas Investment Looms as FG Scrutinizes 215 Projects for $20 Billion Funding

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The NMDPRA said it is reviewing 215 gas utilisation projects and targeting investments worth $20 billion

The agency said it has identified 70 of the 215 projects are top priority, with a demand potential of 15 billion standard cubic feet per day

The federal government is planning to significantly increase Nigeria’s gas production and domestic utilisation by 2030.

The Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has said it is reviewing 215 gas utilisation projects, and it has identified 70 of them that can attract investments worth $20 billion.

This was disclosed by the Authority’s chief executive, Engr. Farouk Ahmed, at the opening session of the Gas Utilisation Unlock Validation Series, held on the sidelines of the ongoing 43rd annual conference of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) in Lagos.

The federal government declared a Decade of Gas plan in 2020 in a move to increase gas utilisation and harness the country’s over 200 trillion proven natural gas reserves.

The ambitious plan, which was launched in 2020 by former President Muhammadu Buhari, aims to make Nigeria a gas-powered economy.

At the session, the NMDPRA boss noted that the 70 gas projects identified from the 215 reviewed are high-impact projects with a combined potential demand of 15 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day (bscf/d).

If actualized, these projects would create thousands of jobs and accelerate industrial growth in the country, driving the strategic objectives of the Decade of Gas plan.

The Authority’s chief executive explained that the projects were assessed based on associated infrastructure needs, market linkages, supply zones, and existing gaps requiring policy and investment interventions.

He added that the projects spread across six major demand clusters: power generation, fertiliser production, petrochemicals, industrial feedstock, CNG/LPG, and export markets.

Ahmed, in his presentation, equally noted some hindrances to growth in Nigeria’s gas sector, including infrastructure gaps, regulatory overlaps, and market uncertainties.

He revealed that the Decade of Gas Secretariat has begun a three-week exercise to validate project data, align gas demand with supply, set appropriate pricing frameworks, and pinpoint the infrastructure and support systems required for effective execution.

He said:

“This validation series is not merely an audit of projects but a springboard for accelerated implementation. Each project team will work closely with the NMDPRA and the Decade of Gas Secretariat to validate assumptions, remove bottlenecks, and assign clear responsibilities and timelines.”

Affirming NMDPRA’s commitment, Ahmed urged operators, regulators, and investors to collaborate strategically to deepen gas utilisation and help Nigeria achieve its goal of being a gas-powered economy by 2030.

“Time is not on our side. We must ensure that within the next 12 to 24 months, we begin commissioning critical gas development projects that will drive the goals of the Decade of Gas,” he advised.

The Minister of State for Petroleum (Gas), Rt. Hon. Ekperikpe Ekpo, who delivered a keynote address at the NAPE convention, said the Decade of Gas initiative can help Nigeria increase gas production by an additional 4.7 billion cubic feet per day by 2030.

He urged stakeholders to collaborate to increase domestic utilisation of gas and also increase export revenues, in line with the 2030 target.

“This marks the initial phase of a ten-year strategy to reposition Nigeria as a gas-driven industrial power, delivering clean energy, strengthening industries, and generating export revenues through coordinated public–private collaboration,” he said.

Analysts have said that increasing local utilisation of gas requires improved investment in gas-to-power, clean cooking, and gas mobility infrastructure.

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Nestoil Refutes Defamatory Claims, Reaffirms Integrity, Commitment to Rule of Law

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l Company denounces false online publications, abuse of judicial process.

l Vows legal action against malicious actors.

In a firm and measured response to recent online reports, Nestoil Limited has strongly refuted what it described as “defamatory and unsubstantiated claims” circulated by certain gossip platforms and individuals posing as freelance journalists.

The indigenous oil and gas company emphasized that the allegations, including insinuations of bribery and judicial interference are “entirely baseless, malicious, and orchestrated to mislead the public.”

In a detailed statement issued through its Corporate Communications Department, Nestoil reaffirmed its unwavering commitment to integrity, due process, and the rule of law, stressing that its operations have always been guided by ethical corporate principles and regulatory compliance.

“At no point has Nestoil undermined justice or influenced public or judicial officers through unethical means. We have always, and will always, adhere to due process and the rule of law,” the statement read. “Nestoil emphatically and unreservedly rejects any insinuation or suggestion that the company, its affiliates, or its representatives have ever engaged in improper payments or attempted to subvert the judicial process.”

The company also addressed what it termed the deliberate misrepresentation of ongoing legal proceedings involving certain entities associated with First Bank of Nigeria (FBN). According to Nestoil, the said entities obtained an ex-parte order against Nestoil, its affiliate Neconde Energy Limited (Neconde), and some executives without prior notice or participation from the defendants, an action that has since been exploited to create a false public impression.

Nestoil explained that ex-parte orders are temporary judicial instruments meant only to maintain the status quo pending full hearing of all parties. However, it alleged that the FBN entities have gone beyond the intent of the order by vandalizing third-party assets and sponsoring misleading reports of a purported takeover of Nestoil and Neconde.

Such acts, the company argued, demonstrate a blatant disregard for the judicial process and appear to be part of a larger campaign to weaponize misinformation against the company. In response, Nestoil stated that it has already presented its case to the courts, refuting the claims and allegations by the FBN entities purporting to act on behalf of the banks.

“The company and its affiliates have always acted within the bounds of the law and have never engaged in conduct that could prejudice the ongoing court proceedings. These actions and the related false narratives are not only unjust but also lack any legal or factual basis,” the company added.

Warning against misinformation, Nestoil urged the media, stakeholders, and the general public to disregard sensational publications originating from anonymous or unverifiable sources. It warned that the spread of such falsehoods undermines both the integrity of the justice system and public confidence in corporate governance.

It said, “We urge all concerned parties to rely solely on verified sources and to remain alert to the dangers posed by misinformation.

Reiterating its readiness to defend its integrity, Nestoil declared that it would pursue all available legal remedies against individuals or organizations that persist in publishing or amplifying defamatory material.

The oil giant reaffirmed its dedication to transparency, accountability, and ethical business practices, noting that its corporate philosophy has always been anchored in respect for the law and the communities it serves.

“Nestoil is, and has always been, guided by an unyielding commitment to the highest standards of integrity, transparency, and ethical business conduct,” the company said. “We operate strictly within all applicable legal and regulatory frameworks, and our longstanding adherence to these standards remains non-negotiable. As we advance, we will vigorously defend our position through lawful means, remaining true to the values that define our organization.”

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