Buhari returned Nigeria to the discredited President/Minister approach to governance. It was a monumental disaster. Unlike when he was Petroleum Minister in 1973 and left office in a cloud of financial uncertainty, the sector had become highly technical; and only very few people in any country could successfully manage it. Buhari was not one of them.

He left an unmitigated disaster behind. One of them was the N8tn Crude-for-Loans agreement reached to finance budget deficits incurred by the FG. Under the agreements, 213,000 barrels of crude oil were daily reserved to service the loans.

Given that, at the time, daily output of crude was about 1.4 million barrels a day, daily net production was under 1.2 million barrels each day. Meanwhile, the budgets each year were based on 2 million barrels per day; and later, Alhaji Dangote was promised all the crude required to run his 600,000 barrels refinery. TAMs were not carried out; petrol was imported in large quantities and fuel subsidy payments escalated to untenable proportions. The stage was set for our present predicament.

“828M litres of fuel imported to avert nationwide shortage.” News, December 1, 2025.

Tinubu came into office and applied a shock treatment to the economy which almost killed the patient. Divinely, the nation survived the therapy is now gradually getting out of the intensive care unit. A recovery is now underway – even if tentative. Still, it is undeniable that the economy might be turning the corner. The Organised Private Sector, OPS, has demonstrated resilience, once again, as it did when the Structural Adjustment Programme, SAP, was introduced in the 1980s. There is faint light at the end of the dark tunnel. There is however, an elephant in the room – NNPCL.

Notwithstanding the profits recently declared by the company, the overall performance this year has been underwhelming.

The news report in reference touched on some of the problems. According to the reporter, “Fuel security slowed in October as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied only an average of 17.1 million litres per day of the nation’s petrol needs, forcing the country to rely heavily on imports, despite earlier hopes of self-sufficiency.”

In reality, the hope of self-sufficiency which was based on the assumption that Dangote would be fully supplied with crude was delusory at best. Dangote’s refinery could not attain full capacity in 2025; even if the crude promised was fully delivered. Furthermore, Dangote was not expected to be the sole supplier of petrol to Nigerians. NNPCL, under the former Group Managing Director, Mele Kyari, requested for and was given $2.9 billion to revive the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries; and get them to start supplying fuel. Promises were made to start production by December 2024.

We are now in December 2025. After months of shameless deceit, including reported supply of fuel by the two refineries, Nigerians woke up to the truth. Funds provided for another TAM by NNPCL had vanished with no fuel being produced. That has been the history of the NNPCL since all the four refineries produced petrol during the Babangida administration – a feat which has not been repeated by any other government since 1993.

The NNPC(L) has consistently duped Nigeria because our governments have repeatedly appointed untrustworthy individuals to manage the business. Their crimes have been overlooked by Presidents and the National Assembly for reasons most of us can only guess because nobody has been prosecuted in Nigeria yet.

NNPC(L) ROBIN HOODS

Robin Hood, the famed fairy tale English robber, took from the rich to give to the poor.

Meanwhile, two former Directors of the NNPC(L) have been successfully prosecuted and sentenced in the United States for stealing Nigerian money and laundering the proceeds of crime in the US. The funds stolen in Nigeria were forfeited to American states. The robbers of NNPC(L) rob Nigeria to enrich wealthy nations even more.

CRUDE PRODUCTION PROMISES UNFULFILLED

“Promises like [cookies] are made to be broken.” Jonathan Swift, 1667-1745.

Nothing is more dangerous than a convincing illusion. Nigerian governments have operated on one for over ten years; and NNPC(L) was responsible for it.   Nigeria’s budgets in the last twelve years have been based on two million barrels per day crude oil production. NNPC(L) directors invariably accept the budget estimates for crude production. In no single month was the target achieved. That fact has never stopped NNPC(L) from repeating the same promise to Presidents – who were too eager to be deceived. The repercussions have been devastating.

Expected crude oil revenue estimates were never achieved; the increasing negative variances generated were largely responsible for the escalating national debt – of which the N8tn is just a small fraction. Question is: when will NNPC(L) play a positive role?