Market watchers recalled that the prolonged crisis in the Middle East forced crude prices above the $100 per barrel mark, with some periods seeing prices rise beyond $120. The increase had a direct impact on fuel costs across several countries, including Nigeria.

During the period, petrol prices in Nigeria surged from about N830 per litre to around N1,300 per litre. Diesel and aviation fuel also recorded major increases, putting pressure on businesses and transport operators.

There are now growing expectations that local refiners, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, may review their prices if the downward movement in crude oil is sustained.

The refinery had previously reduced its petrol loading price from N1,275 per litre to N1,250 per litre after crude prices softened. Diesel prices were also adjusted downward during the same period.

A source familiar with operations at the refinery said another price cut is possible if the market remains stable. However, the source explained that a large volume of crude purchased at earlier, higher prices is still being processed, which could slow the pace of any immediate reduction.

According to the source, petrol selling at N900 per litre is achievable if global oil prices continue to decline and the market fully adjusts to the new realities.

Fuel marketers have also expressed optimism over the outlook.

The Petroleum Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) said petrol prices could fall below N1,000 per litre once the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and crude oil returns to pre-conflict levels.

The association noted that Nigerians paid around N800 per litre before the crisis escalated and believes the market could gradually move back toward that range if peace is maintained.

The optimism comes after United States President Donald Trump announced that a peace arrangement with Iran was underway, with both countries expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of the agreement.

The planned reopening is expected to restore smoother global oil supply and reduce pressure on international energy markets.

Meanwhile, checks across the downstream sector indicate that some fuel marketers have already started adjusting their ex-depot prices below the current benchmark, signalling the possibility of another round of competition in the industry.

MEMAN disclosed that the landing cost of LPG fell to N950,000 per metric tonne. Based on the latest figures, the expected retail price of cooking gas should hover around N925 per kilogramme.

This contrasts sharply with the N1,410 per kilogramme reportedly sold by Dangote Refinery. Despite the reduction in import costs, many Nigerians have yet to feel the impact at the retail level, as cooking gas prices remain stubbornly high across major cities.

Retailers currently sell cooking gas for as high as N2,400 per kilogramme, while larger distributors maintain average prices around N1,800 per kilogramme.

As of 5:08 a.m. WAT, Brent crude rose by 1.03% to $92.39 per barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.91% to trade at $89.00 per barrel, according to a report by Oilprice.com

The market rally followed reports that American forces targeted Iranian air defence systems, radar installations and surveillance facilities after Washington accused Tehran of bringing down a U.S. Army Apache helicopter operating within the region.

The U.S. Central Command described the strikes as a defensive response. However, Iran denied responsibility for the helicopter incident and accused the United States of escalating tensions unnecessarily. The development has raised fears of a broader regional conflict that could disrupt global crude oil supplies.

Checks across fuel depots nationwide show that marketers have adjusted their petrol prices upward in response to the changing global market conditions.

According to the latest data: AIPEC now sells petrol at N1,247 per litre RainOil Lagos sells at N1,248 per litre Integrated depot price stands at N1,247 per litre Liquid Bulk has also fixed its price at N1,248 per litre Industry experts say the latest adjustments are largely precautionary as marketers attempt to shield themselves from potential losses should crude oil prices continue to rise.