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BREAKING: Naira Breaks 13-Year-Old Record As Dollar Crashes; What Nigerians Should Know

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The Nigerian naira ended 2025 on a firmer note, closing at N1,429/$1 on December 31 — a 7.4% appreciation from the N1,535/$1 recorded on the final trading day of 2024.

This is according to official exchange rate data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The 2025 performance marks the naira’s first annual gain since 2012, when it appreciated slightly to N157.29 from N158.99 in 2011.

The Nigerian naira ended 2025 on a firmer note, closing at N1,429/$1 on December 31 — a 7.4% appreciation from the N1,535/$1 recorded on the final trading day of 2024.

This is according to official exchange rate data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The 2025 performance marks the naira’s first annual gain since 2012, when it appreciated slightly to N157.29 from N158.99 in 2011.

The currency had depreciated every year since then, making this a major turnaround after 13 years of consistent declines.

What the data is saying

CBN data indicate that while the naira remained volatile for much of the year, a significant recovery trend began in the last quarter, especially from September through December.

The currency experienced its weakest stretch in April 2025, closing at N1,602/$1, but began a gradual rebound from May.

By the end of the year, it had strengthened to N1,429/$1, improving from N1,450.01/$1 at the start of December and even lower than its opening rate of N1,538.50/$1 in January.

The naira traded relatively flat in February (N1,499 to N1,500/$1), fell sharply in March and April, but started recovering from May (N1,585/$1) and June (N1,532/$1).

September marked a turning point with the currency trading below N1,500/$1 for most of the month, ending at N1,478/$1.

The rally continued into October (N1,427.5/$1), saw a slight dip in November (N1,446.9/$1), but regained ground to close the year at N1,429/$1.

CBN Lauds Nigeria's Instant Payment System

What they are saying

The first annual gain in about 13 years reflects the impact of foreign-exchange reforms introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2024.

Since the reforms were implemented, the gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates has narrowed to below 5%, sharply reducing speculative activity and allowing supply-and-demand dynamics to play a more dominant role in price discovery.

Analysts also attribute the naira’s turnaround to a combination of tighter monetary policies, improved FX inflows, and reduced speculative demand in the market.

Ade Omotosho, analyst at Kwik Securities, said: “Reforms in the FX market, including improved price discovery and increased transparency, also helped support the naira in the second half of the year.”

The recovery however, came after a difficult first half of 2025, where high inflation, strong demand for dollars, and delayed FX inflows weighed heavily on the currency.

The recovery however, came after a difficult first half of 2025, where high inflation, strong demand for dollars, and delayed FX inflows weighed heavily on the currency.

Although structural issues remain, the policy response appears to have gained traction in Q4, contributing to the currency’s relative stability by year-end.

What this means

The naira’s performance in 2025 reflects a shift toward greater FX market stability, offering cautious optimism for 2026.

Analysts believe that a stronger close could help restore investor confidence, provided reforms are sustained and inflation is kept in check.

However, long-term resilience will depend on Nigeria’s ability to attract capital, boost exports, and manage monetary policy effectively.

Without consistent follow-through, the naira could still face renewed volatility.

What you should know

The CBN is finalising a revised foreign exchange (FX) manual to deepen participation and improve transparency in the FX market.

In January 2025, the CBN introduced the Nigerian Foreign Exchange (FX) Code to foster ethical conduct among market participants.

The CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook projects external reserves to reach $51.04 billion, driven by improved oil revenues, FX reforms, and stronger inflows.

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BREAKING: Naira Drops Again as New Rate Emerges

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The Nigerian local currency, the naira, dropped against the US dollar across Nigerian foreign exchange markets as international payments began to pick up. The naira rate suggests foreign payments surpassed US dollar volume supplied after data showed FX inflows has been on the decline.Cryptocurrency exchange comparison

Daily FX update released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revealed that the naira on Wednesday weakened by 37 kobo against the US dollar to close at N1,420.04/$ at the official window.

The spot rate depreciation was driven by inadequate supply to meet the market demand as the naira traded within the range of N1,421.00-N1,419.00 per dollar during the session.

In the parallel market, the spot rate dipped to N1485 per dollar, reflecting a sustained surge in US dollar at the informal currency market.

Meanwhile, the External Reserve added $40.26 million to the previous day’s balance, bringing total reserves to $45.78 trillion, supported by inflows across sources amidst uncertainties around oil price projections for 2026.

Global oil prices rose on Wednesday for a fifth straight session on fears of Iranian supply disruptions due to a potential U.S. attack on Iran and possible retaliation against U.S. regional interests. Brent crude climbed 59 cents, or 0.90%, to $66.06 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by 70 cents, or 1.15%, to $61.63.

Similarly, Gold surged to a record high, as geopolitical and economic uncertainties drove investors toward safe-haven assets, while expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts added further momentum.

Spot gold price rose 86bps to $4,627.42/oz, while U.S. gold futures followed, edging up 76bps to $4,634.20/oz. Analysts at AIICO Capital expect market to trade mixed, with precious metals remaining supported by Fed rate-cut expectations, while oil prices trade cautiously amid mixed supply dynamics and lingering geopolitical concerns.

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BREAKING: Tinubu’s Government Introduces New Tax On Bank Transfers, Other; Details Emerge

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Nigerians will begin paying a 7.5 per cent Value Added Tax (VAT) on selected banking services, including mobile bank transfers and USSD transactions, from January 19, 2026, following a new government-backed regulatory directive.

SaharaReporters obtained a notice sent to customers on Wednesday afternoon by Moniepoint, informing users of the impending implementation of the VAT regime on certain electronic banking charges.

According to the notice, the development is tied to a directive from tax authorities mandating financial institutions to begin VAT collection and remittance.

“We would like to inform you of an upcoming government-endorsed regulatory change regarding Value Added Tax (VAT),” the notice stated.

It added, “From Monday, 19 January 2026, we are required to collect a 7.5% VAT, to be remitted to the Nigerian Revenue Service (NRS) (formerly known as the Federal Inland Revenue Service).”

The company disclosed that the tax will apply to “certain banking services,” including “electronic banking charges such as mobile banking fees (transfers), USSD transaction fees and card issuance fee.”

However, Moniepoint clarified that not all banking-related transactions would attract the tax, noting that “services that DO NOT attract VAT include: interest on deposits and savings.”

The firm also distanced itself from responsibility for the new charges, stressing that “this is not a price increase by Moniepoint.”

“Moniepoint is required to collect and remit VAT to the Nigerian Revenue Service (NRS),” the notice read.

It further explained that the tax authority had issued a clear timeline for compliance across the financial sector.

“The NRS has communicated a deadline for 19th January 2026 for all financial institutions (commercial banks, microfinance banks and electronic money transfer operators) to start collecting and remitting VAT,” the statement said.

Moniepoint also emphasised that the VAT would be limited strictly to service charges, stating that “VAT applies only to banking or service fees, not interest.”

Customers were also informed that the deductions would be clearly itemised, as “VAT charge will appear separately on your transaction reports and statements.”

The new VAT enforcement is expected to affect millions of Nigerians who rely daily on mobile banking platforms and USSD services for financial transactions.

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How manufacturing sector can grow in 2026 — Experts

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Nigeria’s manufacturing sector stands at a critical crossroads as industry stakeholders project improved performance in 2026, following a modest recovery in the second half of 2025. While recent gains have raised expectations of a stronger growth trajectory, experts caution that the sector’s ability to transition from recovery to sustained expansion will depend largely on policy consistency and effective implementation of ongoing economic reforms.

The cautiously optimistic outlook is anchored on continued macroeconomic stability, improved execution of incentives under the new tax laws scheduled to take effect from January 1, favourable oil price dynamics, rising foreign capital inflows, stable energy costs, and the timely implementation of key industrial and fiscal policies aimed at strengthening domestic production.

Effective execution of new tax laws and incentives critical – MAN

In his projection, Director of Research and Economic Policy Division, Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Dr Oluwasegun Osidipe, said the sector is expected to record 3.1 percent real growth and a contribution of 10.2 percent to the real gross domestic product (GDP) in the coming year.

He however hinged the expected improved performance on the effective execution of incentives under the new tax laws.

On the requisite conditions to achieve the improved outlook, Osidipe said: “The naira is projected to appreciate further to N1,300–N1,400/$, driven by global oil price recovery, stronger external reserves, robust export earnings, increased foreign investments and remittance inflows.

“Headline inflation will decelerate further to 14%, supported by easing food prices, stable energy prices and appreciation of the naira.

“The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is anticipated to implement further cuts in the benchmark interest rate to about 23%, in line with the disinflationary trend and to stimulate credit expansion and output growth.
“Further reduction in lending rates and completion of the bank recapitalisation exercise will enhance credit availability to manufacturers, strengthening investment and capacity utilisation.

“Real growth is projected to reach 3.1 percent while contribution to real GDP is expected to rise to 10.2 percent. These gains, however, hinge on the effective execution of incentives under the new tax laws, the operationalisation of the National Single Window (NSW) Project and the purposeful implementation of the Nigeria Industrial Policy in close alignment with the “Nigeria First” Policy framework,” he stated.

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