Politics
2027: Tsunami Defection Hits APC As Lawmakers Set To Join ADC, Others Over Return Tickets
Major opposition parties in the country are expecting mass defections from theAll Progressives Congress (APC) from April.
According to a report by The Sun, the defections will be fallout from primaries to be conducted across the 109 senatorial districts, 360 federal constituencies, and 990 seats across the 36 State Houses of Assembly in the country.
With the elimination of indirect primaries from the new Electoral Act, lawmakers seeking return tickets are worried that their state governors will work against their emergence.
Already, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has released a revised election timetable ahead of the 2027 polls, as well as the conduct of primaries by the various political parties.
The aforementioned publication gathered from some members of the state and national assemblies, who plan to return to the parliament, that recent defections by governors of the opposition to the ruling APC would pose serious threats to them.
The lawmakers, who do not want to be mentioned, said the governors who joined the APC were insisting on producing candidates ahead of the general elections next year, without any recourse to those they met in the party.
One of the lawmakers from Delta State told the publication that part of the negotiations and agreements reached by the governors with the APC and President Bola Tinubu was the freedom to allow them to handpick flag bearers for next year’s general elections.
He said some of the governors were unwilling to accommodate the APC members they met in the party when they defected, but insisted on bringing in fresh candidates, predominantly from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
He said that, to avoid being caught unawares, the aggrieved members of the APC have opened talks with the PDP, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), and the Labour Party (LP) to accommodate them and offer them return tickets to parliament.
“Governors control the structures of political parties in the states. Today, almost all the PDP governors have moved to the APC. They came with their own structures and allies. Unfortunately, the governors already reached agreements with the leadership of the APC and President Tinubu to allow them produce candidates for next year’s general elections.
“Some of us know that we will not get the tickets. Our only option is to open negotiations with the PDP, ADC and LP. Hopefully, we will use our popularity to campaign and hope that we win our re-elections next year,”one of the lawmakers revealed.
Determined to reduce the mass defections, the APC is planning to conduct its National and State Houses of Assembly primaries towards the close of the window permitted by INEC.
A source in the APC said if the plan scales through, aspirants who will be denied tickets will be unable to defect and secure tickets from the opposition parties before the end of May this year.
As Osun State heads towards the August 15, 2026 governorship election, the battle between incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party and Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO) of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is becoming one of the most closely watched political contests in the country.
While the election remains too close to call with certainty, a careful assessment of the current political situation gives Governor Ademola Adeleke a slight edge over Oyebamiji.
The contest is increasingly shaping up as a two-horse race, although African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate Najeem Salaam remains a notable third-force contender.
Why Adeleke May Have the Advantage
One of Adeleke’s biggest strengths is incumbency. The governor is seeking to retain the office and has been campaigning on projects and programmes implemented during his first term.
His campaign has also received political boosts from defections by some former APC figures and associates of former Governor Gboyega Oyetola. Several former commissioners and aides have reportedly moved towards Adeleke’s camp.
Adeleke has additionally received endorsements from some traditional security outfits and ethnic groups in the state, although such endorsements should not automatically be interpreted as guaranteed votes.
Another important factor is the governor’s political visibility. Having contested and won the governorship previously, Adeleke already has an established electoral structure and name recognition across the state.
Why Oyebamiji Could Still Shock Adeleke
Despite Adeleke’s advantages, Oyebamiji should not be underestimated.
The APC candidate has the backing of the federal ruling party and former Governor Oyetola, while the APC is attempting to regain control of Osun after losing the governorship in 2022. Analysts have described the contest as a critical battle for the APC and a test of its ability to recover political ground in the state.
An earlier opinion poll published in January gave Oyebamiji 52 per cent against Adeleke’s 38 per cent, although that survey is several months old and should not be treated as a current projection of the final result.
The APC has also been working to consolidate its structures across the state and present Oyebamiji as an alternative to the incumbent.
The Major Problem for APC
The biggest concern for Oyebamiji may be internal cohesion.
Reports in recent weeks have highlighted resignations and defections within the Osun APC, with some former party members moving towards Adeleke’s camp.
If the APC fails to unite its grassroots structures before election day completely, Adeleke could benefit significantly.
Prediction
Prediction: Ademola Adeleke is slightly more likely to win the Osun 2026 governorship election.
Ademola Adeleke (Accord): 50%
Bola Oyebamiji (APC): 40%
Najeem Salaam (ADC): 10%
These figures are mere analytical estimates, not opinion polls or official forecasts. The election could still swing towards Oyebamiji if the APC succeeds in consolidating its structures, increasing turnout in its strongholds and converting federal political influence into actual votes.
However, based on incumbency, Adeleke’s existing grassroots structure, recent defections to his camp and the current political momentum, the prediction at this stage is that Adeleke could narrowly retain the Osun Government House.
The outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout, party organisation, election-day mobilisation and the actual votes cast and counted on August 15.
Predicted Winner: Ademola Adeleke — Accord Party.
The Federal High Court sitting in Abuja on Wednesday ruled against Mr. Timehin Adeleye, who represented the Owo/Ose Federal Constituency of Ondo State, declaring him ineligible as the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate for the federal constituency.
The court recognized Abdugani Arobo as the legitimate candidate for the party.
Adeleye had previously been listed as a candidate based on information provided to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) by the APC’s National Working Committee (NWC).
However, this decision sparked protests among several APC members and party leaders in Ondo State who opposed the NWC’s ruling.
Abdugani Arobo, one of the aspirants dissatisfied with the NWC’s selection, initiated legal action against the APC and INEC, culminating in the recent court decision.
In a judgment delivered by Justice Peter Lifu, the court held that the APC failed to make the lawful return and that the evidence of the party was riddled with inconsistencies.
The court declared that the plaintiff (Arobo) was the winner of the primary election for the House of Representatives election for Owo/Ose Federal Constituency.
The judgment read, “The plaintiff, having scored the highest lawful votes cast at the primary election held on the 16th day of May, 2026 with a total of 7,959 votes in Owo Local Government Area and 2,583 votes in Ose Local Government Area respectively, is the only aspirant whose name can be lawfully forwarded to the second defendant (INEC) as its nominated candidate for the seat of the House of Representatives, representing Owo/Ose Federal Constituency.
“An order is hereby made for the defendants to forthwith accept, recognise, support, relate and deal with only the plaintiff, as winner of the House of Representatives election for Owo/Ose Federal Constituency, the plaintiff having scored the highest lawful votes cast in the first defendant’s primary election conducted on the 16th day of May, 2026.
“An order of perpetual injunction is made restraining the defendants, their agents and privies howsoever described, from recognising, dealing or relating with any other person apart from the plaintiff, as winner of the House of Representatives election for Owo/Ose Federal Constituency, the plaintiff having scored the highest lawful votes cast in the first defendant’s primary election conducted on the 16th day of May, 2026.
“An order is further made, directing the 2nd defendant forthwith to reopen its portal, for the purpose of including and uploading the plaintiff’s name, as rightfully nominated candidate of the 1st defendant, for the Owo/Ose Federal Constituency general election, to be conducted in 2027.”
The Secretary of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Gombe Local Government Area of Gombe State, Hon. Babangida Usman, popularly known as Babangida Ventures, has resigned from the party and defected to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in support of the governorship ambition of Professor Isa Ali Ibrahim Pantami ahead of the 2027 general election.
Babangida announced his resignation in Gombe, confirming that he had stepped down as ADC Local Government Secretary before formally joining the PDP.
Explaining the reasons for his defection, he said his decision was driven by his conviction that Professor Pantami possesses the competence, experience and leadership qualities required to move Gombe State forward.
He described the former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy as the most credible and capable aspirant in the 2027 governorship race, expressing confidence that his administration would accelerate development across the state.
According to him, his decision to align with the PDP was borne out of his desire to contribute to the realisation of Pantami’s governorship aspiration and the transformation of Gombe State.
The defection is the latest in a series of political realignments in the state following Pantami’s emergence as the PDP governorship candidate, with several politicians and supporters across party lines declaring their support for his ambition.
Professor Pantami is expected to fly the PDP flag in the 2027 governorship election in Gombe State
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