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BREAKING: AI Predicts Winner of Osun Governorship Election

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As Osun State heads towards the August 15, 2026 governorship election, the battle between incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party and Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO) of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is becoming one of the most closely watched political contests in the country.

While the election remains too close to call with certainty, a careful assessment of the current political situation gives Governor Ademola Adeleke a slight edge over Oyebamiji.

The contest is increasingly shaping up as a two-horse race, although African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate Najeem Salaam remains a notable third-force contender.

Why Adeleke May Have the Advantage

One of Adeleke’s biggest strengths is incumbency. The governor is seeking to retain the office and has been campaigning on projects and programmes implemented during his first term.

His campaign has also received political boosts from defections by some former APC figures and associates of former Governor Gboyega Oyetola. Several former commissioners and aides have reportedly moved towards Adeleke’s camp.

Adeleke has additionally received endorsements from some traditional security outfits and ethnic groups in the state, although such endorsements should not automatically be interpreted as guaranteed votes.

Another important factor is the governor’s political visibility. Having contested and won the governorship previously, Adeleke already has an established electoral structure and name recognition across the state.

Why Oyebamiji Could Still Shock Adeleke

Despite Adeleke’s advantages, Oyebamiji should not be underestimated.

The APC candidate has the backing of the federal ruling party and former Governor Oyetola, while the APC is attempting to regain control of Osun after losing the governorship in 2022. Analysts have described the contest as a critical battle for the APC and a test of its ability to recover political ground in the state.

An earlier opinion poll published in January gave Oyebamiji 52 per cent against Adeleke’s 38 per cent, although that survey is several months old and should not be treated as a current projection of the final result.

The APC has also been working to consolidate its structures across the state and present Oyebamiji as an alternative to the incumbent.

The Major Problem for APC

The biggest concern for Oyebamiji may be internal cohesion.

Reports in recent weeks have highlighted resignations and defections within the Osun APC, with some former party members moving towards Adeleke’s camp.

If the APC fails to unite its grassroots structures before election day completely, Adeleke could benefit significantly.

Prediction

Prediction: Ademola Adeleke is slightly more likely to win the Osun 2026 governorship election.

Ademola Adeleke (Accord): 50%

Bola Oyebamiji (APC): 40%

Najeem Salaam (ADC): 10%

These figures are mere analytical estimates, not opinion polls or official forecasts. The election could still swing towards Oyebamiji if the APC succeeds in consolidating its structures, increasing turnout in its strongholds and converting federal political influence into actual votes.

However, based on incumbency, Adeleke’s existing grassroots structure, recent defections to his camp and the current political momentum, the prediction at this stage is that Adeleke could narrowly retain the Osun Government House.

The outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout, party organisation, election-day mobilisation and the actual votes cast and counted on August 15.

Predicted Winner: Ademola Adeleke — Accord Party.

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Falabi Olawale Fadiran

    August 8, 2026 at 7:44 am

    Your survey is accurate and correct.
    Adeleke second term is sure.

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Politics

2027: ‘False Battle’ – APC Breaks Silence On Rift Between Wike, Governors

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The All Progressives Congress (APC) has dismissed reports of a disagreement between its governors and the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, insisting that both sides remain committed to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election in 2027.

The party’s National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, described the reported disagreement as a ‘false battle’.

He maintained that there was no genuine conflict between the minister and members of the Progressives Governors Forum.

Morka clarified this on Tuesday during an interview on Arise Television’s News Day, following Wike’s inclusion in the APC Presidential Campaign Council.

According to him, the governors and the FCT Minister share a common political objective of ensuring Tinubu’s victory in the next presidential election.

“It was a false battle to begin with. I mean, I don’t think there was any real tension between those positions because they united in their extraordinary commitment to the re-election of the president,” Morka said.

He noted that the Progressive Governors Forum comprised governors elected on the APC platform, while Wike, a former Rivers State governor, was a member of Tinubu’s cabinet and a vocal supporter of the President.

According to him, publication of the presidential campaign council list had also clarified the roles of those involved in Tinubu’s re-election campaign.

He said: “Governors, who are not of the APC, now [are] front and centre, coordinating some of our activities in their respective jurisdictions.”

Morka described the development as a new phase in Nigeria’s democratic politics, arguing that the President was bringing politicians from different parties together around a common objective.

The APC spokesperson claimed that the collaboration was unusual in a presidential system, stressing that Tinubu was transcending party differences by building a coalition of political actors to support his administration and re-election campaign.

He said: “We’re seeing a president who is transcending all of the divides and really nullifying what I call the politics of difference between these partisans and bringing them together under the same umbrella to pursue a common agenda for the good of the people.”

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Gunmen Kill NDC Member During Attack On Enugu Campaign Office

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The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) in Enugu State has confirmed the death of one of its members, Nworie Christopher, who was reportedly shot during an attack on the party’s campaign office in the Government Reserved Area of Enugu.

Daily Voice understands that Christopher, who hailed from Affa in Udi Local Government Area of the state, died from gunshot injuries sustained during the October 10, 2026, incident.

The party disclosed that the deceased was among its supporters allegedly attacked by armed thugs during a gathering at the campaign office of its governorship candidate, Christian Chinyeaka Ohaa.

According to the NDC, efforts by its leadership to save Christopher’s life were unsuccessful.

The party condemned the killing and called for the arrest and prosecution of those responsible.

Ohaa, on Tuesday, October 13, led a delegation to the bereaved family to commiserate with them.

The delegation included Chief Frank Omeje (Deputy Governorship Candidate), Engr. Ibuchukwu Obeta (State Chairman), Hon. Emmanuel Chukwujekwu Nebo (State Secretary), Prof. Uche Akubue, Hon. Emeke Okeke, and the State Women Leader.

In a statement by his media aide, Hon. Sampson Ukwu, he condemned the killing and described it as part of a dangerous escalation of political violence against the opposition in the state.

Ohaa said: “No election is worth a single drop of a citizen’s blood. Nworie Christopher went out to support a vision for a better Enugu. Today he is gone. His twin brother is left with an empty half of his world. His family is shattered.

“His mother is completely heartbroken. We will not be silenced by violence. We will not be intimidated. The blood of Nworie Christopher and all our injured members cries out for justice.”

The NDC described the attack as the latest in a series of violent incidents targeting its members, including an armed attack on a ward meeting at Obuoffia in Nkanu West on September 12, 2026, where eight members reportedly sustained gunshot injuries, as well as the tear-gassing, shooting, and brutalization of its supporters at the airport.

“This is no longer ordinary politics. It is a dangerous escalation that threatens the right of citizens to participate peacefully in the democratic process. A government that presides over repeated attacks on opposition gatherings while failing to deliver swift justice has a responsibility to explain to Ndi Enugu why the lives of opposition members appear less protected,” the party said.

The NDC called on the Inspector-General of Police and all relevant security agencies to conduct a thorough, independent, and transparent investigation into the October 10 attack and the earlier Obuoffia incident.

“All those who planned, sponsored, or carried out these attacks must be identified, arrested, and prosecuted without fear or favour,” the party demanded.

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JUST IN: Makinde Appoints New Chief of Staff After Ogunwuyi’s Resignation

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Makinde Laments As Ibadan Crash Claims 15 Lives

Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde has appointed Bashorun Akinwale Akinwole, popularly known as Wolekanle, as his new Chief of Staff, following the resignation of Segun Ogunwuyi.

Makinde also appointed Mrs Aderonke Adedayo, his Special Adviser on General Intervention and Donor Agencies, as Director-General of the Due Process Office.

The appointments were announced in letters signed by the Secretary to the State Government, Professor Musibau Babatunde, on Monday.

Akinwole, a grassroots politician, previously served as Chairman of the Oyo State Local Government Service Commission.

Adedayo will combine her new responsibilities as Director-General of the Due Process Office with her existing role as Special Adviser on General Intervention and Donor Agencies.

Both appointments take immediate effect.

The governor congratulated the appointees and urged them to discharge their duties with loyalty, commitment and dedication to the service of Oyo State.

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