Politics
BREAKING: AI Predicts Winner of Osun Governorship Election
As Osun State heads towards the August 15, 2026 governorship election, the battle between incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party and Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO) of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is becoming one of the most closely watched political contests in the country.
While the election remains too close to call with certainty, a careful assessment of the current political situation gives Governor Ademola Adeleke a slight edge over Oyebamiji.
The contest is increasingly shaping up as a two-horse race, although African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate Najeem Salaam remains a notable third-force contender.
Why Adeleke May Have the Advantage
One of Adeleke’s biggest strengths is incumbency. The governor is seeking to retain the office and has been campaigning on projects and programmes implemented during his first term.
His campaign has also received political boosts from defections by some former APC figures and associates of former Governor Gboyega Oyetola. Several former commissioners and aides have reportedly moved towards Adeleke’s camp.
Adeleke has additionally received endorsements from some traditional security outfits and ethnic groups in the state, although such endorsements should not automatically be interpreted as guaranteed votes.
Another important factor is the governor’s political visibility. Having contested and won the governorship previously, Adeleke already has an established electoral structure and name recognition across the state.
Why Oyebamiji Could Still Shock Adeleke
Despite Adeleke’s advantages, Oyebamiji should not be underestimated.
The APC candidate has the backing of the federal ruling party and former Governor Oyetola, while the APC is attempting to regain control of Osun after losing the governorship in 2022. Analysts have described the contest as a critical battle for the APC and a test of its ability to recover political ground in the state.
An earlier opinion poll published in January gave Oyebamiji 52 per cent against Adeleke’s 38 per cent, although that survey is several months old and should not be treated as a current projection of the final result.
The APC has also been working to consolidate its structures across the state and present Oyebamiji as an alternative to the incumbent.
The Major Problem for APC
The biggest concern for Oyebamiji may be internal cohesion.
Reports in recent weeks have highlighted resignations and defections within the Osun APC, with some former party members moving towards Adeleke’s camp.
If the APC fails to unite its grassroots structures before election day completely, Adeleke could benefit significantly.
Prediction
Prediction: Ademola Adeleke is slightly more likely to win the Osun 2026 governorship election.
Ademola Adeleke (Accord): 50%
Bola Oyebamiji (APC): 40%
Najeem Salaam (ADC): 10%
These figures are mere analytical estimates, not opinion polls or official forecasts. The election could still swing towards Oyebamiji if the APC succeeds in consolidating its structures, increasing turnout in its strongholds and converting federal political influence into actual votes.
However, based on incumbency, Adeleke’s existing grassroots structure, recent defections to his camp and the current political momentum, the prediction at this stage is that Adeleke could narrowly retain the Osun Government House.
The outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout, party organisation, election-day mobilisation and the actual votes cast and counted on August 15.
Predicted Winner: Ademola Adeleke — Accord Party.
new Senior Special Assistants (SSAs) and Special Assistants (SAs).
The Governor of Ondo State, His Excellency, Hon Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa, has approved the appointments of new Senior Special Assistants (SSAs) and Special Assistants (SAs).
The Governor also approved the appointment of Alhaji Moshood Kewuyemi as the Chief Imam of the Government House Mosque.
The new SSAs include:
Ms. Folashade Ogunoye, SSA Gender
Alhaji Aminu Saidi Tunde, SSA Islamic Religion Affairs
Rev. Tunde Ogunsuyi, SSA Christian Religion Affairs
Kemisola Obamoyegun, SSA Housing
Dr. Oluwatobi Aruwajoye, SSA Primary Health
Alhaja Mohammed Sikirat Idera, SSA Muslim Women Affairs
Mrs Ehuwa Victoria Olufunke, SSA Christian Women Affairs
Alhaja Fauzart Gidado, SSA Women Mobilisation (Central).
And, others.
The appointments take immediate effect.
The Labour Party’s youth leadership has initiated plans to engage the All Progressives Congress (APC) and organisations aligned with President Bola Tinubu over the possibility of cooperation before the 2027 presidential election.
The move followed a virtual meeting attended by the party’s National Youth Leader, Prince Kennedy Ahanotu, five zonal youth leaders and representatives of the youth leadership from 32 states.
A statement issued by Edo State Labour Party Youth Leader Ken Omusi and shared on the party’s official X account on Saturday said the meeting took place on Friday. Discussions focused on the party’s political future, its unresolved internal disputes and the need to strengthen youth involvement ahead of the 2027 polls.
The participants reportedly authorised Ahanotu to open discussions with the APC, the Renewed Hope Movement, the City Boy Movement and Tinubu Support Groups regarding possible cooperation ahead of the election.
The statement said several youth leaders complained that they had received little recognition, engagement or support during and after the 2023 general elections, despite campaigning for a presidential candidate they believed lacked the capacity to consolidate the party’s gains.
They said they were seeking a political arrangement and leadership framework capable of expanding youth participation, leadership opportunities, economic empowerment, and representation in national decision-making.
Following the deliberations, the youth leaders directed Ahanotu to immediately begin discussions with relevant representatives of the APC, the Renewed Hope Movement, the City Boy Movement and Tinubu Support Groups to assess the prospects of an alliance or other form of collaboration before 2027.
However, the statement clarified that the initiative had not produced any binding agreement. Any possible partnership would be considered after the consultations are completed.
The group also suggested holding an in-person meeting in Abuja to assess the discussions and decide on its subsequent political course.
The meeting examined several aspects of the Tinubu administration, including human capital development, youth programmes, economic policy, infrastructure, healthcare, education, security, agriculture and workers’ welfare. Participants reportedly offered varying assessments of the government’s policies and their effects.Bola Tinubu news
The City Boy Movement, which was listed among the groups to be contacted, presents itself as a youth-oriented organisation backing Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and the APC. According to its official platform, the group concentrates on grassroots mobilisation, youth participation and support for the administration.
The development also unfolds amid Labour Party factional disputes. Ahanotu has been linked to the Julius Abure-led faction, which announced him as its presidential candidate for the 2027 election in May 2026.
In the 2023 presidential election, the Labour Party emerged as a significant opposition force. Its candidate, Peter Obi, placed third with 6,101,533 votes, based on results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission.
The party also captured the Abia governorship and won several National Assembly seats in the same election.
Opposition stakeholders under the G100 alliance are considering cooperation in the event of a run-off in the 2027 presidential election as efforts to persuade former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra State governor Peter Obi to support a single opposition candidate continue.
Sources within the alliance said consultations with the two presidential candidates were ongoing, but the group was examining alternative forms of cooperation should efforts to produce a consensus candidate fail.
Atiku is the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), while Peter Obi is flying the flag of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).
THE G100 had proposed a common presidential platform as part of efforts to strengthen cooperation among opposition parties ahead of the election.
However, sources said neither Atiku nor Obi had, so far, accepted the single-candidate proposal, prompting discussions about how opposition parties could work together under other possible electoral scenarios.
“Both have not shown any kind of inclination or acceptance of the single candidacy at this time. But of course, there are other plans.
“There are other reasons why these G100 opposition leaders need to continue to engage before, during and even after the election.
“The plan may include a possible run-off or other issues that may come up. So, these are the issues. These are why these meetings were convened: to bring Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi back to the table and get their commitment to the ongoing discussion,” a source told The PUNCH.
Another source said the possibility of a second round was being considered as part of the alliance’s contingency planning, adding that Obi and Atiku seems not interested in stepping down.
He said, “The two major opposition leaders, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, seem to be less concerned about the single-candidacy plan of the G100.
“But they still need one another because the G100, from the statistics we are having and the research conducted, there may not be a straight-up easy winner. A winner may not emerge in the first round.
“So, part of the plan now is that if we cannot achieve a single candidate for the opposition leaders, in the case of a run-off, this ongoing discussion will make it quite easy for the opposition parties to queue behind one candidate and work together.”
Section 134 of the Nigerian Constitution states that where no candidate meets the requirements for election as President, a second election may be held between candidates selected in accordance with the constitutional provisions. INEC’s regulations provide for a run-off where no candidate meets the required vote and geographical-spread thresholds.
Confirming that the faction remained committed to the G100 initiative, the National Publicity Secretary of the Tanimu Turaki-led PDP faction, Ini Ememobong, said, “The PDP, led by Tanimu Turaki, Senior Advocate of Nigeria, remains committed to the G100 activities.
“We have resolved that the only way to rescue Nigeria from the maladministration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC is for the opposition parties to come together. So, we are committed to that project, and we are behind it.”
The APM National Publicity Secretary, Abubakar Yusuf, also confirmed the party’s continued participation in the G100 discussions.
However, he said the party’s presidential candidate, Seyi Makinde, remained in the race for the presidency.
“Our party was there from the beginning. The conversation is ongoing, and as time goes on, I believe the other stakeholders will make some of the decisions and positions public,” he said.
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Falabi Olawale Fadiran
August 8, 2026 at 7:44 am
Your survey is accurate and correct.
Adeleke second term is sure.