The data revealed that Nigeria spent $11.38bn on refined petroleum product imports between January and September 2024, representing a $3.20bn or 21.9 per cent decline compared with $14.58bn recorded in the same period of 2023, pointing to a sharp contraction in foreign exchange outflows associated with refined petroleum products.

The downward trend accelerated in 2025, with fuel imports dropping further by $4.67bn, or 41 per cent, to $6.71bn within the first nine months of the year, marking the steepest year-on-year contraction in the period analysed.

Overall, the figures show that Nigeria spent $7.87bn less on refined fuel imports in the first nine months of 2025 than it did in the corresponding period of 2023, underscoring a significant easing of foreign exchange outflows linked to petroleum product imports.

The CBN data also showed a 41 per cent year-on-year decline in refined petroleum product imports by the third quarter of 2025, signalling early signs of import substitution as new and rehabilitated refineries scale up operations.

The PUNCH reports that Nigeria’s reduced foreign exchange spending on imports comes against the backdrop of a series of structural reforms and market adjustments aimed at easing pressure on the country’s external reserves and stabilising the naira.

For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imports, particularly refined petroleum products, due to limited domestic productive capacity, weak industrial output, and chronic underinvestment in critical infrastructure. This dependence made import financing one of the largest drains on foreign exchange earnings.

The removal of petrol subsidies in 2023 marked a major turning point, as higher pump prices curbed fuel consumption and reduced arbitrage-driven demand. The policy shift, combined with stricter foreign exchange management by the Central Bank of Nigeria, helped moderate import volumes and limit speculative FX demand linked to fuel importation.

Another key factor has been the gradual expansion of domestic supply, especially in the downstream oil sector. Energy experts also say competition within the market has intensified as marketers struggle to compete with supply from the $20bn Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lekki.

Despite the decline, Nigerian fuel-importing marketers still spent an estimated $6.71bn importing refined products during the review period, underscoring the country’s continued dependence on foreign fuel supplies, despite repeated assurances that domestic refining would significantly curb imports.

Although the quarterly fuel import bill declined consistently, the data highlighted persistent structural weaknesses in the downstream oil sector.

Professional speak

Commenting, renowned energy economist Professor Wumi Iledare, noted that Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol has declined but has not been eliminated. He also warned against claims that fuel importation has ended following increased domestic supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

In a personal note titled “Dangote Refinery, Petrol Imports, and Market Reality,” Iledare said recent assertions that Nigeria no longer imports petrol reflect “understandable optimism” but overstate the economic reality of the downstream oil market.

“Recent claims that petrol importation into Nigeria has ended because Dangote Refinery now meets domestic demand reflect understandable optimism, but they overstate economic reality.

“Dangote Refinery has significantly improved domestic supply conditions and reduced Nigeria’s marginal reliance on imported petrol. However, neither Dangote Refinery nor petroleum marketers determine national supply outcomes,” he said.

Iledare, who also serves as Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Abuja, acknowledged that the Dangote Refinery has significantly improved domestic supply conditions and reduced Nigeria’s marginal dependence on imported petrol