Business
Fresh Trouble For Dangote As FG Gives Directive On Petrol, Diesel
Nigeria is set to resume the issuance of petrol and diesel import permits as early as mid-February 2026, a move that could reshape supply dynamics in the downstream market and pose fresh challenges for the Dangote Refinery.
Industry sources say approvals by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) may begin later this month or, at the latest, early March.
If implemented, this would mark the first batch of import licences for 2026, following a temporary regulatory pause aimed at restricting imports to volumes needed only to cover gaps in domestic refining output.
The decision signals government concern about a potential tightening of fuel supply amid shifting market conditions.
According to a ThisDay repport, sources quoted by Argus linked the delay in issuing permits to leadership changes at the NMDPRA after the exit of its former chief executive, Farouk Ahmed, in December.
The transition reportedly slowed internal decision-making at the authority during the early weeks of the year.
Traditionally, import permits are issued on a quarterly basis and remain valid for three months.
Issuing licences midway into the first quarter has raised questions among market participants about how the existing framework will be applied and whether approvals will be prorated.
Market pressure has also intensified following a drop in crude deliveries to the Dangote Refinery. . Receipts reportedly fell to around 250,000 barrels per day in January, down from roughly 350,000 barrels per day in December, the lowest level in about 16 months.
The decline points to lower run rates at the refinery’s crude distillation unit and increases the likelihood of refined product shortfalls.
Earlier reports indicated maintenance activities on key processing units, including the residue fluid catalytic cracking unit that produces petrol.
Although petrol demand eased during the Christmas and early January holidays, traders say tighter local supply and rising refinery asking prices have renewed interest in imported cargoes.
Petrol asking prices climbed by about 14 per cent to N799 per litre by late January, after falling to around N699 per litre in December. The rebound has made imported fuel more competitive in recent trading sessions.
Market participants believe new import permits would allow marketers to supplement domestic supply while regulators continue to prioritise local refining. However, increased imports could dilute Dangote Refinery’s growing dominance in the downstream market.
Amid the shifting landscape, the Dangote Refinery has warned that petrol pump prices could approach N1,000 per litre if marketers increasingly rely on coastal transportation rather than gantry loading for fuel evacuation.
In a statement, the refinery said coastal logistics can add about N75 per litre to petrol costs due to port charges, maritime levies and vessel-related expenses.
With Nigeria’s daily consumption estimated at 50 million litres of petrol and 14 million litres of diesel, the extra cost could translate into an annual burden of roughly N1.75 trillion if passed on to consumers.
The company stressed that gantry loading remains the most cost-efficient option and that marketers are free to choose their preferred evacuation method. It cautioned, however, that widespread reliance on coastal shipping would undermine recent price relief achieved through domestic refining.
The price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, could fall to around N900 per litre if the proposed peace agreement between the United States and Iran is successfully implemented and global crude oil prices continue to decline.
The expectation follows fresh developments in the Middle East, where efforts to end months of hostilities have pushed international oil prices downward. Nigeria market report
Crude oil prices, which climbed sharply during the conflict, have dropped significantly in recent days as investors react positively to reports of a ceasefire framework and plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest oil shipping routes.
Industry operators believe the development could eventually reflect in domestic fuel prices, especially as crude oil remains the major raw material for refined petroleum products.
Market watchers recalled that the prolonged crisis in the Middle East forced crude prices above the $100 per barrel mark, with some periods seeing prices rise beyond $120. The increase had a direct impact on fuel costs across several countries, including Nigeria.
During the period, petrol prices in Nigeria surged from about N830 per litre to around N1,300 per litre. Diesel and aviation fuel also recorded major increases, putting pressure on businesses and transport operators.
There are now growing expectations that local refiners, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, may review their prices if the downward movement in crude oil is sustained.
The refinery had previously reduced its petrol loading price from N1,275 per litre to N1,250 per litre after crude prices softened. Diesel prices were also adjusted downward during the same period.
A source familiar with operations at the refinery said another price cut is possible if the market remains stable. However, the source explained that a large volume of crude purchased at earlier, higher prices is still being processed, which could slow the pace of any immediate reduction.
According to the source, petrol selling at N900 per litre is achievable if global oil prices continue to decline and the market fully adjusts to the new realities.
Fuel marketers have also expressed optimism over the outlook.
The Petroleum Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) said petrol prices could fall below N1,000 per litre once the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and crude oil returns to pre-conflict levels.
The association noted that Nigerians paid around N800 per litre before the crisis escalated and believes the market could gradually move back toward that range if peace is maintained.
The optimism comes after United States President Donald Trump announced that a peace arrangement with Iran was underway, with both countries expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of the agreement.
The planned reopening is expected to restore smoother global oil supply and reduce pressure on international energy markets.
Meanwhile, checks across the downstream sector indicate that some fuel marketers have already started adjusting their ex-depot prices below the current benchmark, signalling the possibility of another round of competition in the industry.
The landing cost of imported liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), also called cooking gas, has dropped significantly, offering fresh hope for lower energy prices across the country.
New data released by the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) showed that the cost of bringing fuel products into Nigeria has now fallen below the ex-depot prices offered by the Dangote Refinery.
The development comes as petroleum marketers reportedly imported fuel and gas valued at about N279 billion to boost supply and take advantage of declining international market prices, according to a report by Punch.
Cooking gas prices also witnessed a sharp decline in landing costs, raising expectations that consumers may soon enjoy relief from soaring household energy expenses.
MEMAN disclosed that the landing cost of LPG fell to N950,000 per metric tonne. Based on the latest figures, the expected retail price of cooking gas should hover around N925 per kilogramme.
This contrasts sharply with the N1,410 per kilogramme reportedly sold by Dangote Refinery. Despite the reduction in import costs, many Nigerians have yet to feel the impact at the retail level, as cooking gas prices remain stubbornly high across major cities.
Retailers currently sell cooking gas for as high as N2,400 per kilogramme, while larger distributors maintain average prices around N1,800 per kilogramme.
Fresh petrol depot prices have emerged across Nigeria as marketers adjust to rising crude oil prices and renewed tensions in the Middle East.
The latest pricing changes come amid growing uncertainty in the global energy market following fresh military exchanges between the United States and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes.
ndustry data tracked by PetroleumPriceNG and monitored by Legit.ng show that depot owners raised their Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices as a protective measure against potential losses linked to volatile international oil prices.
Global crude oil prices climbed during early trading on Wednesday, June 10, 2026, after the United States launched strikes on Iranian military infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz.
As of 5:08 a.m. WAT, Brent crude rose by 1.03% to $92.39 per barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.91% to trade at $89.00 per barrel, according to a report by Oilprice.com
The market rally followed reports that American forces targeted Iranian air defence systems, radar installations and surveillance facilities after Washington accused Tehran of bringing down a U.S. Army Apache helicopter operating within the region.
The U.S. Central Command described the strikes as a defensive response. However, Iran denied responsibility for the helicopter incident and accused the United States of escalating tensions unnecessarily. The development has raised fears of a broader regional conflict that could disrupt global crude oil supplies.
Checks across fuel depots nationwide show that marketers have adjusted their petrol prices upward in response to the changing global market conditions.
According to the latest data: AIPEC now sells petrol at N1,247 per litre RainOil Lagos sells at N1,248 per litre Integrated depot price stands at N1,247 per litre Liquid Bulk has also fixed its price at N1,248 per litre Industry experts say the latest adjustments are largely precautionary as marketers attempt to shield themselves from potential losses should crude oil prices continue to rise.
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