The deterioration coincided with Washington’s implementation of its “reciprocal” tariff regime, under which Donald Trump signed an executive order raising Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent.

The order, issued late July, took effect on August 7, 2025. Although crude oil has been exempted in several cases, the higher duty applies directly to a wide range of non-oil Nigerian exports, creating uncertainty for American importers and dampening demand ahead of and after the effective date.

With crude oil exports largely exempted from the new tariff regime, non-oil exports appear to have borne the brunt of the disruption. In the first nine months of 2024, Nigeria’s exports to the US rose steadily quarter-on-quarter, from N1.31tn in Q1 to N1.59tn in Q2 and N1.69tn in Q3.

Imports, by contrast, remained relatively moderate at N1.01tn, N965.50bn, and N1.04tn respectively. This resulted in trade surpluses of N301.94bn in Q1, N620.99bn in Q2, and N649.71bn in Q3, culminating in a cumulative surplus of N1.57tn for the nine-month period.

That trend reversed sharply in 2025. Although exports opened the year at N1.54tn in Q1, they fell to N1.36tn in Q2 and then plunged to N743.63bn in Q3. Imports followed the opposite trajectory, rising from N1.42tn in Q1 to N2.16tn in Q2 and surging further to N3.22tn in Q3.

Quarter-on-quarter analysis showed that exports declined by 11.9 per cent between Q1 and Q2 2025, before collapsing by 45.3 per cent between Q2 and Q3. Imports, meanwhile, jumped by 51.8 per cent between Q1 and Q2 and rose by another 49.1 per cent between Q2 and Q3, rapidly widening Nigeria’s trade deficit with the US.

On a year-on-year basis, exports to the US grew by 17.7 per cent in Q1 2025 compared with Q1 2024, but the trend reversed thereafter. Exports fell by 14.3 per cent in Q2 2025 compared with Q2 2024 and plunged by 56.0 per cent in Q3 2025 relative to Q3 2024.

Imports increased sharply across all quarters, rising by 40.9 per cent in Q1, 123.5 per cent in Q2, and 209.4 per cent in Q3. The sharp contraction in export earnings explains why the United States dropped out of Nigeria’s top five export destinations by Q2 and Q3 of 2025, despite remaining one of Nigeria’s largest sources of imports.

Product-level data from the NBS further shows the imbalance. In Q1 2025, Nigeria’s exports to the US were dominated by crude petroleum oils valued at N779.38bn, followed by urea at N240.17bn and kerosene-type jet fuel at N214.30bn. Other export items included petroleum gases in gaseous state valued at N95.97bn and standard quality cocoa beans at N58.84bn.

Imports from the US in Q1 2025 were led by crude petroleum oils worth N726.84bn, alongside used diesel vehicles above 2,500cc valued at N93.51bn, lubricating oil additives at N60.12bn, soya beans at N45.04bn, and butanes at N32.85bn.

By Q2 2025, Nigeria’s export basket to the US had narrowed significantly, led by cocoa beans worth N37.39bn and urea valued at N106.44bn, alongside technically specified natural rubber at N10.43bn and leather products valued at N127.22m.

Imports, however, expanded sharply, with crude petroleum oils alone valued at N1.34tn, followed by used vehicles, wheat, motor spirit, and denatured alcohol. In Q3 2025, exports dwindled further to relatively minor items such as soya bean flour valued at N23.60bn, cocoa powder preparations worth N36.83m, and technically specified natural rubber valued at N5.03bn.

Imports from the US continued to surge, with crude petroleum oils rising to N2.31tn, alongside strong inflows of used vehicles, wheat, and industrial plastics. With the US no longer among Nigeria’s top five export destinations by mid-2025 and imports accelerating rapidly, the figures highlight growing structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s trade position and the vulnerability of its export earnings to external policy shifts.

FG pledges resilience

Earlier in September, President Bola Tinubu said his administration will remain resilient and has no fear of the trade policy direction of US President Donald Trump, particularly tariffs targeting Nigerian exports. The President cited Nigeria’s current economic trajectory and growing non-oil revenues as buffers against external shocks. Tinubu said, “If non-oil revenue is growing, then we have no fear of whatever Trump is doing on the other side.”

Also, Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, said the country would not be stampeded into retaliatory action but would continue on its path of reform and diversification. “Nigeria remains responsive; we’re not reacting. We’re focused on the eight-point agenda of President Bola Tinubu. We will continue to support domestic investors and expand market access for Nigerian businesses,” Oduwole said.

She noted that while the United States remains an important trade partner, Nigeria is strengthening its African Continental Free Trade Area strategy and boosting non-oil exports, which grew by 24 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025.

“It’s mostly an energy trading relationship, but we are waiting to see what happens with AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) in September. We are also growing exports to other African countries and expanding partnerships with Brazil, China, Japan, and the UAE,” she added.

The minister stressed that Nigeria would seize opportunities for South–South cooperation, pursue export diversification, and reduce dependence on the American market.

Stakeholders in Nigeria’s export sector earlier called on the United States of America to review the tariffs on Nigerian products, while describing the tariff as an opportunity for the country to expand its non-oil exports.

Experts speak

Stakeholders led by the Nigerian American Chamber of Commerce and the Nigerian Export Promotion Council noted that the US tariffs should not be seen only as a challenge but also as a window for growth.

Also, a development economist and Chief Executive Officer of CSA Advisory, Dr Aliyu Ilias, said Nigeria should view the current trade situation as an opportunity to adapt. “I think it’s a good time that this is happening to Nigeria. Trump’s tariff is not only for Nigeria. The advantage is that we are now exporting more overall, which is positive for us,” he said.

Ilias argued that Nigeria could use its position within BRICS and other international alliances to reduce vulnerability and build resilience. He added that with other countries such as India and China also facing US tariffs, Nigeria had an opening to forge new partnerships.

“We also have to start being on our own. We can trade with other partners and see, because other partners are also looking for partners. The tariff that is affecting us is also affecting others, so it may be a good opportunity,” he added.

Similarly, renowned economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, downplayed the impact of the US tariffs on Nigeria. “Our trade with the US is not that strategic. When anything goes wrong, it is not as if it can have any fundamental effect on our economy. Our trade exposure to them is very limited,” Yusuf explained.

He noted that Nigerian exports to the US are dominated by crude oil and a handful of other commodities such as fertilizers, making the country’s trade profile narrow and underdeveloped in non-oil areas. Yusuf added that Nigeria’s tariff exposure is relatively moderate compared with other countries. However, he identified another challenge beyond tariffs: US visa policy.

“The bigger challenge for Nigeria’s trade relationship with the U.S. is Washington’s visa policy. Barriers to travel limit business interactions and investment inflows. That is more critical than tariffs in the long run,” he said.

Since its inception, the Trump administration has steadily rolled out a series of visa restrictions and travel bans targeting Nigeria and several other countries.

He has cited the need to reform the US immigration system, strengthen border security, and improve the vetting of foreign nationals as justification for the decisions.

These measures, which have generated diplomatic unease and personal distress, reached a new phase with the latest proclamation signed by the US President.

The proclamation-imposed travel restrictions on Nigerians and citizens of 16 other African countries. According to the White House, holders of the B-1, B-2, B-1/B-2, F, M, and J visas are barred from entering the United States from January 1, 2026.

The visa categories cover business and tourist travel, as well as students and exchange visitors, effectively affecting a broad spectrum of Nigerians.

Beyond security concerns, the US government also cited what it described as a high rate of visa overstays by Nigerian nationals as part of the justification for the restrictions.