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Electricity Subsidy Nears N2tn Yearly

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Amid its struggles to pay the over N4tn debt owed to power generation companies, the Federal Government incurred a total of N1.98tn in electricity subsidy obligations in 12 months, from October 2024 to September 2025.

This was according to the quarterly reports released by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission. In the fourth quarter of 2024, covering October to December, the electricity subsidy incurred by the government was N471.69bn. It was N536.4bn in the first quarter of 2025 and N514.35bn in the second quarter of last year.

The latest report from NERC released on Tuesday showed that the Federal Government incurred a power subsidy burden of N458.75bn in the third quarter of 2025 as electricity tariffs remained below cost-reflective levels, making a total of N1.98tn in the 12-month period, from October 2024 to September 2025.

NERC stated in its reports that in the absence of cost-reflective tariffs, the government undertook to cover the resultant gap between the cost-reflective and allowed tariff in the form of tariff subsidies.

The PUNCH observed that the subsidy burden remains high despite the Band A tariff adjustments of April 2024. Recall that the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, has repeatedly pointed out that the electricity subsidy was no longer sustainable, proposing a subsidy arrangement that would cover only the poor.

Experts who spoke with The PUNCH also maintained that the government should find a way out of the burden of electricity subsidy.

NERC stated that the subsidy is applied at source through the DisCos’ payment obligations to the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc. It stated that for ease of administration, the subsidy is only applied to the generation cost payable by DisCos to NBET at source in the form of a DisCo’s Remittance Obligation.

According to the regulator, the DRO represents the total GenCo invoice that is billed to the DisCos by NBET based on what the allowed DisCo tariffs can cover. NERC added that DisCos are still required to fully meet other market invoices.

“DisCos are expected to remit 100 per cent of the invoices received from the MO for transmission and administrative service costs.” It disclosed that the subsidy obligation in Q3 amounted to N458.75bn, though it represented a decline from the previous quarter.

“Due to the absence of cost-reflective tariffs across all DisCos, the government incurred a subsidy obligation of N458.75bn; this represents a N55.59bn reduction in FGN subsidy compared to 2025/Q2 (N514.35bn),” it said.

The commission said the subsidy accounted for over half of total generation invoices, stating, “The subsidy obligation of the government decreased in naira terms and accounted for 58.63 per cent of the total GenCo invoice, which is a 0.97 pp decrease compared to 2025/Q2 when the subsidy accounted for 59.60 per cent of the total GenCo invoice.”

According to NERC, the reduction was driven by lower energy offtake and a marginal decline in generation cost. “This is because while the allowed end-user tariffs remained unchanged across the quarters, there was a 6.08 per cent decrease in energy offtake by the DisCos during the quarter, as well as a reduction in actual generation cost (N/kWh) by 0.98 per cent,” the report added.

The commission noted that the DRO framework replaced the Minimum Remittance Obligation regime in January 2024, and DisCos are expected to pay 100 per cent of their DROs.

Explaining the reason for the policy shift, NERC said, “The transition to the DRO regime was necessitated by the risk of unpaid tariff subsidy debts encumbering the balance sheets of the DisCos, thereby preventing them from raising finance to undertake critical investments in their distribution network.”

Under the framework, the regulator said the Federal Government directly settles the subsidy component of generation costs. Under the DRO framework, NBET directly invoices the portion of GenCo costs not covered by DRO (tariff subsidy) to the Federal Ministry of Finance for immediate settlement.

On payments to NBET, the regulator said DisCos recorded a remittance rate of 95.23 per cent in Q3. The DRO-adjusted invoice from NBET to the DisCos was N323.70bn, while the total remittance made was N308.25bn, according to NERC.

It added, “Comparatively, in 2025/Q2, the DRO-adjusted invoice from NBET to DisCos was N348.66bn, and the total remittance was N333.90bn, which translated to 95.77 per cent remittance performance.”

NERC explained that most DisCos met their obligations in full, as disaggregated remittance performance of the DisCos to NBET in 2025/Q3 shows that all DisCos, except Kano (98.74 per cent), Benin (94.77 per cent), Jos (65.13 per cent), and Kaduna (40.16 per cent), achieved 100 per cent remittance performance.

The commission noted mixed performance among the defaulting DisCos on a quarter-on-quarter basis, adding, “A quarter-on-quarter analysis showed that Jos (+4.29 pp) DisCo recorded an improvement in remittance performance to NBET in 2025/Q3 compared to 2025/Q2, while Benin (-5.23 pp), Kaduna (-1.68 pp) and Kano (-1.26 pp) DisCos recorded decreases in remittance performance.”

The report showed that all other DisCos (Abuja, Eko, Enugu, Ibadan, Ikeja, Port Harcourt, and Yola) maintained 100 per cent remittance to NBET across the quarters.

On remittances to the Market Operator, the regulator said DisCos paid N73.03bn out of N76.77bn invoiced in Q3. This payment translates to 95.13 per cent remittance performance. “This represents a marginal increase when compared to the 95.07 per cent remittance performance recorded in 2025/Q2 when DisCos remitted N65.30bn out of the N68.68bn invoice issued by the MO.”

According to the commission, the disaggregated remittance performance of the DisCos to the MO shows that all the DisCos, except Jos and Kaduna, recorded 100 per cent remittance performance to the MO in the third quarter.

It further stated, “Since January 2025, only Jos and Kaduna DisCos have failed to remit 100 per cent of the MO invoice,” adding that “between 2025/Q2 and 2025/Q3, Jos recorded an increase of 6.72 pp, while Kaduna recorded a decline of 4.29 pp in their remittance performance to MO.”

Operators in the power sector have repeatedly called on the Federal Government to remove the subsidies on electricity so as to end the challenges of liquidity. Since April 2024, customers on Band A have stopped enjoying electricity subsidies.

The report further showed that total generation costs for Q3 would have stood at N782.45bn without government intervention. However, due to the subsidy, the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc invoice payable by DisCos fell to N323.70bn.

Despite modest improvements in billing and collection efficiency, electricity distribution companies recorded combined billing losses of N315.17bn between the second and third quarters of 2025, largely due to energy theft, poor metering, and weak commercial controls.

NERC disclosed that DisCos were unable to account for N167.25bn worth of energy received at their trading points in Q2, while billing losses in Q3 stood at N147.92bn. The commission did not state the billing loss figure for the first quarter.

In Q3, the naira value of total energy offtake by all DisCos stood at N854.53bn, while energy billed amounted to N706.61bn, translating to a billing efficiency of 82.69 per cent. Although this represented an improvement of 1.08 percentage points over the 81.61 per cent recorded in Q2, DisCos still suffered significant revenue leakages.

NERC said the losses were driven largely by commercial losses, including energy theft and poor energy accounting, as well as the inability of DisCos to bill energy at the weighted average allowed tariff.

On revenue collection, DisCos generated N570.25bn out of the N706.61bn billed in Q3, resulting in a collection efficiency of 80.70 per cent, up from 76.07 per cent in the previous quarter.

However, the regulator said the weighted average aggregate technical, commercial, and collection loss across all DisCos remained high at 33.27 per cent, exceeding the 2025 MYTO target of 20.54 per cent by 12.73 percentage points.

This translated to a cumulative revenue loss of N108.75bn, despite a 4.65 percentage point improvement from the 37.92 per cent recorded in Q2. Only Eko and Ikeja Electricity Distribution Companies met their ATC&C loss targets during the quarter, while Kaduna DisCo posted the worst performance, recording an actual ATC&C loss of 71.10 per cent against a target of 21.32 per cent.

On market remittances, DisCos were billed a cumulative upstream invoice of N400.48bn in Q3, comprising N323.70bn payable to NBET and N76.77bn for transmission and administrative services owed to the Market Operator.

Out of this amount, DisCos remitted N381.29bn, leaving an outstanding balance of N19.18bn and a remittance performance of 95.21 per cent, slightly below the 95.65 per cent recorded in Q2.

However, the report highlighted weak remittances from international bilateral customers, who paid only $7.13m out of the $18.69m invoiced, representing a 38.09 per cent remittance rate. By contrast, domestic bilateral customers paid N3.19bn out of N3.64bn invoiced, achieving a stronger 87.61 per cent remittance rate.

Expert speaks

The convener of PowerUp Nigeria, Adetayo Adegbemle, said the electricity subsidy is no longer sustainable, saying the government ought to have found a way out of the burden. Adegbemle said the subsidy affects the entire value chain as the Federal Government failed to fulfill the subsidy obligations.

“I’ve been pushing that our current subsidy is not sustainable. And that’s because it affects the value chain all the way down. If you are asking me today again what I feel about power subsidy, I have not changed my position on that. Subsidy is not sustainable. The government is supposed to have evolved a way out of it,” he said.

Adegbemle believed that one of the reasons why the government had yet to remove subsidies was because of political considerations, especially the effects of the fuel subsidy removal.

“I believe that there are some political considerations as well. One of them was the shock effect of the removal of the fuel subsidy. And the rising exchange rates. If anything, we all know that the shock effect led to high inflation.

“So, on one hand, I want to believe that that’s one of the reasons why they’ve not removed power subsidies. But then, we have also proposed alternatives for them, one of which is the Power Consumer Assistance Fund that the Electricity Act itself asked them to work on. The Federal Government has not paid these subsidies; if it had paid, we wouldn’t be owing the GenCos. We need to bring manufacturers back to the grid,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Nigeria Electricity Consumers Advocacy Network has described the Federal Government’s service-based tariff policy as a failure, warning that recent electricity tariff adjustments have failed to reduce subsidy payments and instead deepened inefficiencies in the power sector.

Speaking with The PUNCH on Tuesday, the National Secretary of NECAN, Uket Obonga, said the introduction of the Band A tariff regime, which was justified by government officials as a pathway to subsidy reduction, had delivered the opposite outcome.

“I have always called the service-based tariff policy a scam from the beginning, and going by the promise made by the regulator, minister, and the government in introducing the Band A tariff to reduce subsidy, has it been reduced now? The more baffling thing is how revenue collected by the Discos is almost now at par with the amount incurred as electricity subsidy,” Obonga said.

He also expressed concern that revenue collected by electricity distribution companies was now almost at par with the amount the Federal Government was paying as an electricity subsidy, raising questions about the effectiveness of the policy.

“The most baffling thing is how revenue collected by DisCos is almost now at the same level as what the government is incurring as an electricity subsidy,” he said. “That alone shows that the policy and its implementation have failed.”

The consumer advocate accused DisCos of benefiting from poor supply while continuing to collect tariffs from customers. “DisCos are now benefiting from selling darkness to Nigerians and still collecting money,” Obonga said. “They are charging for power that is not supplied. That is the reality.”

He said the original objective of the service-based tariff regime had collapsed because the structure of electricity demand in Nigeria was fundamentally flawed.

“The whole idea behind the service-based tariff was that industrial customers would off-take power, pay commercial rates, and help sustain the industry,” he said. “But today, we don’t have enough industrial customers on the grid. Residential customers cannot pay what is required to sustain the power sector.”

Obonga also faulted the Federal Government’s claim that industrial users were being encouraged back to the national grid, insisting there was no evidence to support such assertions.

“The government is not using data to do its projections,” he said. “Recall that the Minister of Power said the government was working to bring industrial customers back to the grid. How many companies have actually returned? Where is the data?”

According to him, poor supply quality, unreliable power, and high tariffs had made it difficult to convince manufacturers to abandon self-generation. “It is even difficult to convince them to return to the grid,” he said. “Once a company has invested heavily in alternative power, it will not come back easily.”

The NECAN secretary also raised concerns over the Federal Government’s N4tn electricity bond, which was issued to address legacy debts and stabilise the power sector.

“Now the government has come up with a N4tn bond, and it has already been issued,” Obonga said. “What is the result of that bond? It was concluded last year, but there is still no clarity on what it has achieved.”

He expressed doubts over investor appetite for the bond, warning that it may not have attracted the level of investment expected by the government. “I will not be surprised if the bond does not attract the required investment from investors,” he said.

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Oil Exports Drive Nigeria’s Current Account Surplus To $4.98bn

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Nigeria’s current account surplus rose sharply by 255.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $4.98bn in the first quarter of 2026, driven by higher crude oil, gas and refined petroleum exports, as well as a steep decline in petroleum product imports, according to the latest Balance of Payments report released by the Central Bank of Nigeria on Wednesday.

The apex bank, in its Q1 2026 Balance of Payments Highlights, stated that “provisional balance of payments statistics for Q1 2026 show a current account surplus of $4.98bn, which was higher than the $1.40bn and $3.41bn recorded in the preceding quarter (Q4 2025) and corresponding period (Q1 2025), respectively.”

The report showed that the current account surplus expanded by 255.71 per cent from the $1.40bn recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025 and was 46.04 per cent higher than the $3.41bn surplus posted in the corresponding period of 2025.

According to the CBN, the improvement was supported by increased earnings from crude oil exports, gas exports and refined petroleum product exports, alongside a significant reduction in refined petroleum product imports and lower net out-payments on the primary income account.

The report noted that crude oil export earnings rose to $8.11bn in Q1 2026 from $6.77bn in Q4 2025, while gas exports increased to $2.53bn from $2.24bn. Refined petroleum product exports also climbed to $2.37bn from $1.97bn during the period. At the same time, refined petroleum product imports plunged by 87.5 per cent to $0.31bn from $2.48bn in the preceding quarter.

A breakdown of the external sector data showed that the goods account, which is the largest component of the current account, recorded a surplus of $5.95bn in Q1 2026, compared with $1.77bn in Q4 2025 and $3.35bn in Q1 2025.

The CBN said, “The goods account (a major sub-account in the current account) recorded a significantly higher surplus of $5.95bn in Q1 2026, as against $1.77bn and $3.35bn recorded in the preceding quarter and corresponding period of 2025.”

The stronger goods account position was underpinned by a rise in total exports to $15.49bn from $13.36bn in the previous quarter, largely due to higher crude oil and gas exports. Meanwhile, total imports fell to $9.54bn from $11.59bn, reflecting lower imports of refined petroleum products and non-oil goods.

Crude oil exports increased by 19.79 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $8.11bn, while gas exports rose by 12.95 per cent to $2.53bn. Refined petroleum product exports jumped by 20.3 per cent to $2.37bn. Non-oil exports also improved marginally by 4.62 per cent to $2.49bn.

On the import side, non-oil imports declined by 10.49 per cent to $7.85bn, while refined petroleum product imports dropped sharply to $0.31bn from $2.48bn. However, crude oil imports rose to $1.39bn from $0.34bn recorded in Q4 2025.

The report also showed mixed performances across other current account components. Net out-payments on services increased to $3.71bn from $3.32bn, driven largely by higher net debits in travel and other business services.

“The increase in net out-payments for services was largely due to increases in net debits in travel and other business services,” the bank stated.

The primary income deficit narrowed to $2.83bn from $3.27bn in the preceding quarter, reflecting lower dividend and interest payments to foreign investors. According to the report, “This was largely attributable to a decrease in out-payments (dividend and interest) to non-residents’ investments, mostly to direct investors.”

The secondary income account surplus, which largely captures remittance inflows, declined to $5.57bn from $6.21bn. Personal transfers from Nigerians in the diaspora fell to $5.30bn from $5.72bn in Q4 2025.

Despite the stronger current account position, the financial account remained in a net borrowing position. The report showed that net borrowing increased to $2.51bn in Q1 2026 from $1.96bn in the previous quarter.

Portfolio investment inflows strengthened during the period, rising to $6.03bn from $5.27bn in Q4 2025, while direct investment inflows moderated slightly to $1.03bn from $1.11bn. Nigerian investments abroad recorded outflows of $0.20bn under direct investment assets and $0.26bn under portfolio assets.

The CBN attributed developments in the financial account to increased portfolio investment inflows, a marginal decline in direct investment inflows, accretion to external reserves, and increased acquisition of portfolio investment assets abroad by residents.

Further analysis of the balance of payments data showed that Nigeria recorded an overall balance of payments surplus of $2.38bn in Q1 2026, lower than the $2.67bn surplus achieved in Q4 2025. The stock of external reserves, however, rose significantly to $48.35bn at the end of March 2026 from $45.75bn at the end of December 2025.

The report also highlighted a deterioration in net errors and omissions, which widened to negative $7.49bn in Q1 2026 from negative $3.36bn in the preceding quarter.

The latest figures indicate that improvements in oil production, rising petroleum exports and reduced dependence on imported fuel continued to strengthen Nigeria’s external position during the first quarter, helping to offset weaker remittance inflows and higher service-related outflows.

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FG Releases Barely 5% Of N54.93tn Three-Year Road Budget

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The Federal Government has released about N2.68tn for the construction, rehabilitation and maintenance of roads and bridges across the country between 2023 and April 2026, findings by The PUNCH from the Open Treasury Portal have shown.

The analysis, however, revealed a significant disparity between approved budgets and actual releases, with the government making provisions totalling N54.93tn for road-related projects within the period under review.

The figures highlight both the growing emphasis on infrastructure development and the persistent financing constraints that continue to affect capital project execution in the country.

The development also comes amid the ongoing Renewed Hope Media Tour organised by the Presidential Communications Team, designed to showcase projects being implemented under President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

Data obtained from the Open Treasury Portal on Tuesday showed that road projects attracted a combined budgetary allocation of N2.53tn in 2023, out of which N631.51bn was released, representing an implementation rate of 24.95 per cent.

The Treasury data, however, did not specify the road projects to which the funds were released and did not indicate whether the government’s four legacy highway projects formed part of the expenditure.

A year-by-year breakdown showed that road construction projects received N280.14bn from a budget of N1.09tn during the year, while rehabilitation and repair works attracted N345.93bn from an allocation of N1.42tn. Road and bridge maintenance projects also received N5.44bn out of a total provision of N14.68bn.

In 2024, the Federal Government increased its budgetary commitment to the sector, making provisions amounting to N9.39tn for road-related projects. However, actual releases stood at N784.60bn, representing 8.36 per cent of the approved amount.

Road construction projects accounted for N383.74bn of the spending from an allocation of N5.05tn, while rehabilitation projects received N384.49bn from a budget of N4.32tn. The government also released N16.37bn for the maintenance of roads and bridges out of a total provision of N18.18bn.

The trend continued in 2025, with the government budgeting N7.22tn for road construction and rehabilitation projects. Treasury records showed that N670.68bn had been released during the period, translating to an implementation rate of 9.29 per cent.

Of the amount released, road construction projects received N269.75bn from an allocation of N3.42tn, while rehabilitation and repair projects attracted N400.94bn from a budget of N3.80tn.

The 2026 figures indicate a sharp rise in budgetary provisions. As of April 2026, the government had earmarked N35.79tn for road construction, rehabilitation and maintenance projects, the highest within the four-year period.

However, only N597.08bn had been released, representing 1.67 per cent of the approved budget. Specifically, road construction projects had a budgetary provision of N23.61tn, with releases amounting to N293.06bn.

Similarly, rehabilitation and repair projects received N300.80bn from a total allocation of N12.03tn. Road and bridge maintenance projects had an allocation of N144.64bn, but only N3.22bn had been released as of the end of April. Treasury records show that N26.54bn was released in April alone, leaving an outstanding budget balance of N23.32tn yet to be funded.

The data indicate that although substantial sums have been earmarked for road projects over the years, actual cash releases remain significantly lower than approved allocations, reflecting the financing constraints that often affect capital project implementation.

Further analysis showed that road construction consistently attracted the largest allocations. Budgetary provisions rose from N1.09tn in 2023 to N23.61tn in 2026, reflecting the Federal Government’s increasing focus on large-scale highway projects.

Road rehabilitation spending remained substantial throughout the period. Allocations increased from N1.42tn in 2023 to N12.03tn in 2026, suggesting a parallel effort to repair existing infrastructure.

Maintenance received the smallest allocations but recorded the highest execution rate. In 2024, road and bridge maintenance achieved a 90.05 per cent implementation rate, compared to less than 10 per cent for construction and rehabilitation.

Overall, the Federal Government budgeted N54.93tn for road-related projects between 2023 and April 2026 but released N2.68tn during the same period.

The data also showed that while budgetary provisions expanded significantly over the years, the percentage of funds released declined. In 2023, about 25 per cent of the approved budget was released. This fell to 8.36 per cent in 2024 and 9.29 per cent in 2025.

As of April 2026, only 1.67 per cent of the total budgetary provision had been released. The development comes amid the Federal Government’s renewed focus on infrastructure as a catalyst for economic growth.

Several major road projects are currently underway across the country, including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Road, the Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway and other strategic federal highways aimed at improving connectivity across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones and stimulating economic activities.

The Minister of Works, David Umahi, recently disclosed that the Federal Ministry of Works would prioritise the completion of major highways and the execution of four presidential legacy projects in its 2026 capital plan.

According to the minister, the ministry inherited over 2,000 ongoing projects in 2023, many of which have been rolled over into subsequent budgets due to funding constraints.

Umahi also told lawmakers during the defence of the ministry’s 2026 budget proposal that the Federal Government owed contractors about N2.2tn for certified works executed between 2024 and 2025, underscoring the financing challenges facing the road sector despite rising budgetary allocations.

He added that only a fraction of expected capital releases had been made, forcing the ministry to re-scope and prioritise projects.

The Open Treasury Portal, which tracks government revenues and expenditures, provides a snapshot of how much of the approved budgets for capital projects has translated into actual spending.

Although the latest figures point to an unprecedented expansion in planned spending on road infrastructure, the challenge, analysts say, will be ensuring that budgetary commitments are backed by timely releases to deliver the intended benefits to Nigerians.

 

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Marketers, Depots Release New Petrol Prices as Dangote Refinery Slashes Price

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Nigeria’s petrol market is witnessing a fresh wave of price reductions following the sharp decline in global crude oil prices and a major price cut by Dangote Refinery, raising hopes of cheaper fuel across the country.

The downturn in international oil prices has triggered adjustments at several fuel depots, with operators releasing new ex-depot prices amid growing optimism that petrol prices could ease further in the coming weeks.

Global crude prices extended their losses on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, after signs of a breakthrough in talks between the United States and Iran boosted expectations that the strategic Strait of Hormuz could soon return to normal operations.

The easing of tensions has reduced fears of supply disruptions that previously pushed oil prices higher.

As of Tuesday morning, Brent crude traded at $82.68 per barrel, down 0.59 per cent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 0.42 per cent to $80.41 per barrel.

Market confidence also received a boost after the LNG tanker Disha successfully sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday on its way to India, signalling the gradual restoration of energy shipments from the Gulf region.

Although shipping firms remain cautious, analysts believe oil prices may remain under pressure if the US-Iran agreement is formally signed and maritime activities fully resume.

Against this backdrop, Nigerian depots have begun adjusting their petrol prices downward.

Industry data obtained from PetroleumPriceNG shows that several depot owners lowered their ex-gantry prices as competition intensifies.

Dangote Refinery had earlier announced a significant N75 per litre reduction in its petrol price.

However, the refinery later adjusted its rate slightly upward by N5, selling Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) at N1,185 per litre, compared to N1,175 previously.

Other depots have also announced fresh rates. Prudent Oghara is now selling petrol at N1,270 per litre, while AITEO offers PMS at N1,180 per litre. Mainland depot fixed its ex-depot price at N1,250 per litre.

The latest crash in crude oil prices could open the door for additional reductions in petrol and diesel prices across Nigeria. Industry experts say marketers may be compelled to lower prices further as cheaper crude filters into the supply chain and competition with Dangote Refinery intensifies

For millions of Nigerians struggling with high transportation and living costs, the current trend offers renewed hope that fuel prices may finally begin to ease in the months ahead.

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