Business
BREAKING: Naira Breaks 13-Year-Old Record As Dollar Crashes; What Nigerians Should Know
The Nigerian naira ended 2025 on a firmer note, closing at N1,429/$1 on December 31 — a 7.4% appreciation from the N1,535/$1 recorded on the final trading day of 2024.
This is according to official exchange rate data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The 2025 performance marks the naira’s first annual gain since 2012, when it appreciated slightly to N157.29 from N158.99 in 2011.
The Nigerian naira ended 2025 on a firmer note, closing at N1,429/$1 on December 31 — a 7.4% appreciation from the N1,535/$1 recorded on the final trading day of 2024.
This is according to official exchange rate data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The 2025 performance marks the naira’s first annual gain since 2012, when it appreciated slightly to N157.29 from N158.99 in 2011.
The currency had depreciated every year since then, making this a major turnaround after 13 years of consistent declines.
What the data is saying
CBN data indicate that while the naira remained volatile for much of the year, a significant recovery trend began in the last quarter, especially from September through December.
The currency experienced its weakest stretch in April 2025, closing at N1,602/$1, but began a gradual rebound from May.
By the end of the year, it had strengthened to N1,429/$1, improving from N1,450.01/$1 at the start of December and even lower than its opening rate of N1,538.50/$1 in January.
The naira traded relatively flat in February (N1,499 to N1,500/$1), fell sharply in March and April, but started recovering from May (N1,585/$1) and June (N1,532/$1).
September marked a turning point with the currency trading below N1,500/$1 for most of the month, ending at N1,478/$1.
The rally continued into October (N1,427.5/$1), saw a slight dip in November (N1,446.9/$1), but regained ground to close the year at N1,429/$1.
What they are saying
The first annual gain in about 13 years reflects the impact of foreign-exchange reforms introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2024.
Since the reforms were implemented, the gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates has narrowed to below 5%, sharply reducing speculative activity and allowing supply-and-demand dynamics to play a more dominant role in price discovery.
Analysts also attribute the naira’s turnaround to a combination of tighter monetary policies, improved FX inflows, and reduced speculative demand in the market.
Ade Omotosho, analyst at Kwik Securities, said: “Reforms in the FX market, including improved price discovery and increased transparency, also helped support the naira in the second half of the year.”
The recovery however, came after a difficult first half of 2025, where high inflation, strong demand for dollars, and delayed FX inflows weighed heavily on the currency.
The recovery however, came after a difficult first half of 2025, where high inflation, strong demand for dollars, and delayed FX inflows weighed heavily on the currency.
Although structural issues remain, the policy response appears to have gained traction in Q4, contributing to the currency’s relative stability by year-end.
What this means
The naira’s performance in 2025 reflects a shift toward greater FX market stability, offering cautious optimism for 2026.
Analysts believe that a stronger close could help restore investor confidence, provided reforms are sustained and inflation is kept in check.
However, long-term resilience will depend on Nigeria’s ability to attract capital, boost exports, and manage monetary policy effectively.
Without consistent follow-through, the naira could still face renewed volatility.
What you should know
The CBN is finalising a revised foreign exchange (FX) manual to deepen participation and improve transparency in the FX market.
In January 2025, the CBN introduced the Nigerian Foreign Exchange (FX) Code to foster ethical conduct among market participants.
The CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook projects external reserves to reach $51.04 billion, driven by improved oil revenues, FX reforms, and stronger inflows.
Nigeria’s current account surplus rose sharply by 255.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $4.98bn in the first quarter of 2026, driven by higher crude oil, gas and refined petroleum exports, as well as a steep decline in petroleum product imports, according to the latest Balance of Payments report released by the Central Bank of Nigeria on Wednesday.
The apex bank, in its Q1 2026 Balance of Payments Highlights, stated that “provisional balance of payments statistics for Q1 2026 show a current account surplus of $4.98bn, which was higher than the $1.40bn and $3.41bn recorded in the preceding quarter (Q4 2025) and corresponding period (Q1 2025), respectively.”
The report showed that the current account surplus expanded by 255.71 per cent from the $1.40bn recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025 and was 46.04 per cent higher than the $3.41bn surplus posted in the corresponding period of 2025.
According to the CBN, the improvement was supported by increased earnings from crude oil exports, gas exports and refined petroleum product exports, alongside a significant reduction in refined petroleum product imports and lower net out-payments on the primary income account.
A breakdown of the external sector data showed that the goods account, which is the largest component of the current account, recorded a surplus of $5.95bn in Q1 2026, compared with $1.77bn in Q4 2025 and $3.35bn in Q1 2025.
The CBN said, “The goods account (a major sub-account in the current account) recorded a significantly higher surplus of $5.95bn in Q1 2026, as against $1.77bn and $3.35bn recorded in the preceding quarter and corresponding period of 2025.”
The stronger goods account position was underpinned by a rise in total exports to $15.49bn from $13.36bn in the previous quarter, largely due to higher crude oil and gas exports. Meanwhile, total imports fell to $9.54bn from $11.59bn, reflecting lower imports of refined petroleum products and non-oil goods.
Crude oil exports increased by 19.79 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $8.11bn, while gas exports rose by 12.95 per cent to $2.53bn. Refined petroleum product exports jumped by 20.3 per cent to $2.37bn. Non-oil exports also improved marginally by 4.62 per cent to $2.49bn.
On the import side, non-oil imports declined by 10.49 per cent to $7.85bn, while refined petroleum product imports dropped sharply to $0.31bn from $2.48bn. However, crude oil imports rose to $1.39bn from $0.34bn recorded in Q4 2025.
The report also showed mixed performances across other current account components. Net out-payments on services increased to $3.71bn from $3.32bn, driven largely by higher net debits in travel and other business services.
“The increase in net out-payments for services was largely due to increases in net debits in travel and other business services,” the bank stated.
The primary income deficit narrowed to $2.83bn from $3.27bn in the preceding quarter, reflecting lower dividend and interest payments to foreign investors. According to the report, “This was largely attributable to a decrease in out-payments (dividend and interest) to non-residents’ investments, mostly to direct investors.”
The secondary income account surplus, which largely captures remittance inflows, declined to $5.57bn from $6.21bn. Personal transfers from Nigerians in the diaspora fell to $5.30bn from $5.72bn in Q4 2025.
Despite the stronger current account position, the financial account remained in a net borrowing position. The report showed that net borrowing increased to $2.51bn in Q1 2026 from $1.96bn in the previous quarter.
Portfolio investment inflows strengthened during the period, rising to $6.03bn from $5.27bn in Q4 2025, while direct investment inflows moderated slightly to $1.03bn from $1.11bn. Nigerian investments abroad recorded outflows of $0.20bn under direct investment assets and $0.26bn under portfolio assets.
The CBN attributed developments in the financial account to increased portfolio investment inflows, a marginal decline in direct investment inflows, accretion to external reserves, and increased acquisition of portfolio investment assets abroad by residents.
Further analysis of the balance of payments data showed that Nigeria recorded an overall balance of payments surplus of $2.38bn in Q1 2026, lower than the $2.67bn surplus achieved in Q4 2025. The stock of external reserves, however, rose significantly to $48.35bn at the end of March 2026 from $45.75bn at the end of December 2025.
The report also highlighted a deterioration in net errors and omissions, which widened to negative $7.49bn in Q1 2026 from negative $3.36bn in the preceding quarter.
The latest figures indicate that improvements in oil production, rising petroleum exports and reduced dependence on imported fuel continued to strengthen Nigeria’s external position during the first quarter, helping to offset weaker remittance inflows and higher service-related outflows.
The Federal Government has released about N2.68tn for the construction, rehabilitation and maintenance of roads and bridges across the country between 2023 and April 2026, findings by The PUNCH from the Open Treasury Portal have shown.
The analysis, however, revealed a significant disparity between approved budgets and actual releases, with the government making provisions totalling N54.93tn for road-related projects within the period under review.
The figures highlight both the growing emphasis on infrastructure development and the persistent financing constraints that continue to affect capital project execution in the country.
The development also comes amid the ongoing Renewed Hope Media Tour organised by the Presidential Communications Team, designed to showcase projects being implemented under President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.
Data obtained from the Open Treasury Portal on Tuesday showed that road projects attracted a combined budgetary allocation of N2.53tn in 2023, out of which N631.51bn was released, representing an implementation rate of 24.95 per cent.
The Treasury data, however, did not specify the road projects to which the funds were released and did not indicate whether the government’s four legacy highway projects formed part of the expenditure.
A year-by-year breakdown showed that road construction projects received N280.14bn from a budget of N1.09tn during the year, while rehabilitation and repair works attracted N345.93bn from an allocation of N1.42tn. Road and bridge maintenance projects also received N5.44bn out of a total provision of N14.68bn.
Nigeria’s petrol market is witnessing a fresh wave of price reductions following the sharp decline in global crude oil prices and a major price cut by Dangote Refinery, raising hopes of cheaper fuel across the country.
The downturn in international oil prices has triggered adjustments at several fuel depots, with operators releasing new ex-depot prices amid growing optimism that petrol prices could ease further in the coming weeks.
Global crude prices extended their losses on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, after signs of a breakthrough in talks between the United States and Iran boosted expectations that the strategic Strait of Hormuz could soon return to normal operations.
The easing of tensions has reduced fears of supply disruptions that previously pushed oil prices higher.
As of Tuesday morning, Brent crude traded at $82.68 per barrel, down 0.59 per cent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 0.42 per cent to $80.41 per barrel.
Market confidence also received a boost after the LNG tanker Disha successfully sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday on its way to India, signalling the gradual restoration of energy shipments from the Gulf region.
Although shipping firms remain cautious, analysts believe oil prices may remain under pressure if the US-Iran agreement is formally signed and maritime activities fully resume.
Against this backdrop, Nigerian depots have begun adjusting their petrol prices downward.
Industry data obtained from PetroleumPriceNG shows that several depot owners lowered their ex-gantry prices as competition intensifies.
Dangote Refinery had earlier announced a significant N75 per litre reduction in its petrol price.
However, the refinery later adjusted its rate slightly upward by N5, selling Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) at N1,185 per litre, compared to N1,175 previously.
Other depots have also announced fresh rates. Prudent Oghara is now selling petrol at N1,270 per litre, while AITEO offers PMS at N1,180 per litre. Mainland depot fixed its ex-depot price at N1,250 per litre.
The latest crash in crude oil prices could open the door for additional reductions in petrol and diesel prices across Nigeria. Industry experts say marketers may be compelled to lower prices further as cheaper crude filters into the supply chain and competition with Dangote Refinery intensifies
For millions of Nigerians struggling with high transportation and living costs, the current trend offers renewed hope that fuel prices may finally begin to ease in the months ahead.
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