Foreign
Analysts: Israel-Iran Conflict Exposes China’s “Limited Leverage”
China called for a ceasefire. But despite its recent history of mediation in the region, its role was limited this time.
Through the 12 days of the recent Israel-Iran conflict, China moved quickly to position itself as a potential mediator and voice of reason amid a spiralling regional crisis.
The day after Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran on June 13, Beijing reached out to both sides to express its desire for a mediated solution even as the country’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, condemned Israel’s actions as a violation of international law.
Chinese President Xi Jinping soon followed with calls for de-escalation, while at the United Nations Security Council, China joined Russia and Pakistan in calling for an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire”.
When Iran threatened to blockade the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes, Beijing was also quick to speak out.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs instead called for the “international community to step up efforts to de-escalate conflicts and prevent regional turmoil from having a greater impact on global economic development”.
Beijing’s stance throughout the conflict remained true to its longstanding noninterference approach to foreign hostilities. But experts say it did little to help shore up its ambition of becoming an influential player in the Middle East, and instead exposed the limitations of its clout in the region.
Why China was worried
Unlike some countries, and the United States in particular, China traditionally approaches foreign policy “through a lens of strategic pragmatism rather than ideological solidarity”, said Evangeline Cheng, a research associate at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute.
This approach means China will always focus on protecting its economic interests, of which it has many in the Middle East, Cheng told Al Jazeera.
China has investments in Israel’s burgeoning tech sector and its Belt and Road infrastructure project spans Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
Critically, China relies on the Middle East for more than half of its crude oil imports, and it’s the top consumer of Iranian oil. A protracted war would have disrupted its oil supplies, as would an Iranian blockade of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz – something threatened by Tehran’s parliament during the conflict.
“War and security instability not only undermines Chinese investment and trade and business… but also the oil price and gas energy security in general,” said Alam Saleh, a senior Lecturer in Iranian Studies at the Australian National University.
“Therefore, China seeks stability, and it disagrees and opposes any kind of military solution for any type of conflict and confrontations, no matter with whom,” he said.
John Gong, a professor of economics at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, told Al Jazeera that China’s top concern through the conflict was to avoid “skyrocketing oil prices” that would threaten its energy security.
Flexing diplomatic muscle, protecting economic might
Aware of China’s friendly relations with Iran and Beijing’s economic fears, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Beijing to keep Tehran from closing the Strait of Hormuz as ceasefire negotiations stumbled forward this week.
It was a brief moment of acknowledgement of Beijing’s influence, but experts say China’s overall diplomatic influence remains limited.
“China’s offer to mediate highlights its desire to be seen as a responsible global player, but its actual leverage remains limited,” Cheng said. “Without military capabilities or deep political influence in the region, and with Israel wary of Beijing’s ties to Iran, China’s role is necessarily constrained.”
To be sure, Beijing has demonstrated its ability to broker major diplomatic deals in the region. In 2023, it mediated the normalisation of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. While seen as a huge diplomatic win for China, experts say Beijing owed much of its success to fellow mediators, Oman and Iraq. China also mediated an agreement between Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah, in July 2024, under which they committed to working together on Gaza’s governance after the end of Israel’s ongoing war on the enclave.
But William Yang, a senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said the odds were stacked against China from the beginning of the latest conflict due to Israel’s wariness towards its relationship with Iran.
In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year “strategic partnership”, and Iran is an active participant in the Belt and Road project. Iran has also joined the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and this year took part in China’s “Maritime Security Belt” naval exercises.
Iran’s “resolute opposition to American hegemony” also aligns well with China’s diplomatic interests more broadly, compared with Israel’s close ties to the US, Yang said.
China’s dilemma
It’s a scenario that could be repeated in the future, he said.
“This case also reinforces the dilemma that China faces: while it wants to be viewed as a great power that is capable of mediating in major global conflicts, its close relationship with specific parties in some of the ongoing conflicts diminishes Beijing’s ability to play such a role,” Yang said.
For now, Beijing will continue to rely on the US as a security guarantor in the region, he added.
“It’s clear that China will continue to focus on deepening economic engagement with countries in the Middle East while taking advantage of the US presence in the region, which remains the primary security guarantor for regional countries,” Yang said.
“On the other hand, the US involvement in the conflict, including changing the course of the war by bombing Iranian nuclear sites, creates the condition for China to take the moral high ground in the diplomatic sphere and present itself as the more restrained, calm and responsible major power,” he said.
Aljazeera.com
The National Assembly of Bénin (National Assembly Benin) has approved a revision of the country’s Constitution, extending the presidential term from five to seven years and creating a bicameral parliament.
In a post shared on Facebook on Saturday by the Assemblée Nationale du Bénin, lawmakers announced that the bill was passed during a plenary session held on Friday at the Palace of the Governors in Porto-Novo.
According to the Assembly, 90 deputies voted in favour and 19 against, approving the amendment to the Constitution of 11 December 1990, previously revised in 2019.
“The Deputies of the 9th Legislature… adopted by 90 votes for and 19 against, the law modifying the Constitution of the Republic of Bénin,” the statement read.
The legislative body added that, in line with Article 154, the proposal first had to secure the required three-quarters majority during a preliminary vote. Deputies met this threshold with 87 votes for and 22 against, before proceeding to the final secret ballot.
The post, originally published in French, has been translated by PUNCH Online using Google Translate.
According to the Assembly’s breakdown, 15 new articles were created and 18 amended.
One of the most significant changes is contained in the newly modified Article 42, which now states: “The President of the Republic is elected by direct universal suffrage for a term of seven years, renewable only once. No one may, in his or her lifetime, serve more than two terms as President of the Republic.”
The reform also introduces a bicameral legislature, as stipulated in the updated Article 79, giving legislative powers and government oversight to both the National Assembly and a newly established Senate.
“Beyond this major change, Parliament—under the amended Article 79—exercises legislative power and oversees government action. It is now composed of two chambers: the National Assembly and the Senate.”
Under Article 80, deputies’ terms are now set at seven years, renewable, with an additional clause stating that any deputy who resigns from the party that sponsored them during legislative elections will automatically lose their mandate.
“The term of office for deputies is 7 years, renewable. Any deputy who resigns and thereby ceases to be a member of the party that sponsored them for the legislative election loses their mandate.”
The reformed Article 113.1 defines the Senate as an institution responsible for regulating political life and safeguarding “national unity, development, territorial defence, public security, democracy, and peace.”
The law also extends the tenure of mayors and municipal councillors to seven years, renewable.
The Federal Government has opened discussions with the United Kingdom (UK) over the possible transfer of former Deputy Senate President, Senator Ike Ekweremadu, who is currently serving a nine-year sentence in a UK prison for organ harvesting.
The Daily Voice understands that a high-powered Nigerian delegation arrived in London on Monday to engage British authorities on the matter.
The delegation included the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, and the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi.
Both officials held a closed-door meeting with senior representatives of the UK Ministry of Justice.
After the meeting, the officials were received by Ambassador Mohammed Maidugu, Acting High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, at the Nigerian High Commission in London.
Diplomatic sources told Daily Trust that the visit is part of President Bola Tinubu’s effort to secure either an early release or a lawful review of Ekweremadu’s sentence based on humanitarian considerations.
Officials familiar with the negotiation confirmed that the Nigerian government is exploring different legal avenues under UK law, including prisoner-transfer agreements, compassionate parole, or more lenient relief options.
We are working on an appeal for a prisoner exchange for him to serve the remainder of his term in Nigeria,” a top Ministry of Foreign Affairs official disclosed.
“Consultations are still ongoing with the UK authorities.”
The Daily Voice reports that Ekweremadu, a long-serving legislator and three-time Deputy President of the Senate, was convicted at the Old Bailey in March 2023 alongside his wife, Beatrice, and a medical doctor, Obinna Obeta.
They were found guilty of conspiring to exploit a young Nigerian, David Nwamini, for the removal of his kidney to treat Ekweremadu’s daughter, Sonia.
The former senator was sentenced to nine years and eight months in a UK correctional facility — the longest sentence ever handed down in the UK for an organ-harvesting-related offence.
The latest diplomatic push signals renewed efforts by the Nigerian government to renegotiate the terms of Ekweremadu’s imprisonment, even as officials tread carefully to respect UK judicial processes.
The Federal Government is expected to update the public as consultations with UK authorities continue.
Former Kaduna Central Senator, Shehu Sani, has urged Nigerians and other Africans affected by the recent mass visa revocation in the United States to return home before facing possible arrest by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
In a post on his X (Twitter) handle on Monday, Sani said no matter how long one stays abroad, they’ll be reminded it’s not their home.
He wrote, “Nigerians and other thousands of Africans whose visas were recently revoked by President Trump should hasten and leave the country and return home before they get arrested by ICE.
“No matter how long you live in the comfort of your adopted home, you will someday be reminded that it’s not your father’s house.”
The advisory comes in the wake of reports that the US State Department has revoked at least 80,000 visas since January 2025 under President Donald Trump’s administration, more than twice the number recorded in the previous year.
According to a report released last Thursday, the US Department said the revoked visas include 16,000 linked to driving under the influence, 12,000 for assault, and 8,000 student visas.
It also listed other reasons for the revocations, including terrorist support, criminal activity, public safety threats, overstays, and actual terrorism.
The advisory comes in the wake of reports that the US State Department has revoked at least 80,000 visas since January 2025 under President Donald Trump’s administration, more than twice the number recorded in the previous year.
According to a report released last Thursday, the US Department said the revoked visas include 16,000 linked to driving under the influence, 12,000 for assault, and 8,000 student visas.
It also listed other reasons for the revocations, including terrorist support, criminal activity, public safety threats, overstays, and actual terrorism.
While the nationalities of the affected visa holders were not disclosed, the department had earlier stated in August that over 6,000 student visas were withdrawn for overstays and legal violations, including a small number connected to “support for terrorism.”
The US has also tightened its visa regulations in recent months.
In July, the US Embassy directed all applicants for F, M, and J non-immigrant visas to set their social media accounts to public as part of enhanced background checks.
That same month, it also announced a major policy change affecting Nigerian applicants, which included a reduction in the validity period for several categories of visas.
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