Foreign
Analysts: Israel-Iran Conflict Exposes China’s “Limited Leverage”
China called for a ceasefire. But despite its recent history of mediation in the region, its role was limited this time.
Through the 12 days of the recent Israel-Iran conflict, China moved quickly to position itself as a potential mediator and voice of reason amid a spiralling regional crisis.
The day after Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran on June 13, Beijing reached out to both sides to express its desire for a mediated solution even as the country’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, condemned Israel’s actions as a violation of international law.
Chinese President Xi Jinping soon followed with calls for de-escalation, while at the United Nations Security Council, China joined Russia and Pakistan in calling for an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire”.
When Iran threatened to blockade the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes, Beijing was also quick to speak out.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs instead called for the “international community to step up efforts to de-escalate conflicts and prevent regional turmoil from having a greater impact on global economic development”.
Beijing’s stance throughout the conflict remained true to its longstanding noninterference approach to foreign hostilities. But experts say it did little to help shore up its ambition of becoming an influential player in the Middle East, and instead exposed the limitations of its clout in the region.
Why China was worried
Unlike some countries, and the United States in particular, China traditionally approaches foreign policy “through a lens of strategic pragmatism rather than ideological solidarity”, said Evangeline Cheng, a research associate at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute.
This approach means China will always focus on protecting its economic interests, of which it has many in the Middle East, Cheng told Al Jazeera.
China has investments in Israel’s burgeoning tech sector and its Belt and Road infrastructure project spans Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
Critically, China relies on the Middle East for more than half of its crude oil imports, and it’s the top consumer of Iranian oil. A protracted war would have disrupted its oil supplies, as would an Iranian blockade of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz – something threatened by Tehran’s parliament during the conflict.
“War and security instability not only undermines Chinese investment and trade and business… but also the oil price and gas energy security in general,” said Alam Saleh, a senior Lecturer in Iranian Studies at the Australian National University.
“Therefore, China seeks stability, and it disagrees and opposes any kind of military solution for any type of conflict and confrontations, no matter with whom,” he said.
John Gong, a professor of economics at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, told Al Jazeera that China’s top concern through the conflict was to avoid “skyrocketing oil prices” that would threaten its energy security.
Flexing diplomatic muscle, protecting economic might
Aware of China’s friendly relations with Iran and Beijing’s economic fears, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Beijing to keep Tehran from closing the Strait of Hormuz as ceasefire negotiations stumbled forward this week.
It was a brief moment of acknowledgement of Beijing’s influence, but experts say China’s overall diplomatic influence remains limited.
“China’s offer to mediate highlights its desire to be seen as a responsible global player, but its actual leverage remains limited,” Cheng said. “Without military capabilities or deep political influence in the region, and with Israel wary of Beijing’s ties to Iran, China’s role is necessarily constrained.”
To be sure, Beijing has demonstrated its ability to broker major diplomatic deals in the region. In 2023, it mediated the normalisation of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. While seen as a huge diplomatic win for China, experts say Beijing owed much of its success to fellow mediators, Oman and Iraq. China also mediated an agreement between Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah, in July 2024, under which they committed to working together on Gaza’s governance after the end of Israel’s ongoing war on the enclave.
But William Yang, a senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said the odds were stacked against China from the beginning of the latest conflict due to Israel’s wariness towards its relationship with Iran.
In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year “strategic partnership”, and Iran is an active participant in the Belt and Road project. Iran has also joined the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and this year took part in China’s “Maritime Security Belt” naval exercises.
Iran’s “resolute opposition to American hegemony” also aligns well with China’s diplomatic interests more broadly, compared with Israel’s close ties to the US, Yang said.
China’s dilemma
It’s a scenario that could be repeated in the future, he said.
“This case also reinforces the dilemma that China faces: while it wants to be viewed as a great power that is capable of mediating in major global conflicts, its close relationship with specific parties in some of the ongoing conflicts diminishes Beijing’s ability to play such a role,” Yang said.
For now, Beijing will continue to rely on the US as a security guarantor in the region, he added.
“It’s clear that China will continue to focus on deepening economic engagement with countries in the Middle East while taking advantage of the US presence in the region, which remains the primary security guarantor for regional countries,” Yang said.
“On the other hand, the US involvement in the conflict, including changing the course of the war by bombing Iranian nuclear sites, creates the condition for China to take the moral high ground in the diplomatic sphere and present itself as the more restrained, calm and responsible major power,” he said.
Aljazeera.com
South Sudan President Salva Kiir fired Finance Minister Bak Barnaba Chol in a reshuffle that was unveiled on state television on Monday evening.
Chol was appointed to the post in November, following the president’s firing of Athian Diing Athian just two months after his appointment.
Kiir appointed Salvatore Garang, an economist trained at the University of Khartoum in Sudan, as the new Minister of Finance.
Garang previously served as finance minister from 2018 to 2020, a period marked by economic reforms and fiscal strains.
During his first stint in the role, local media reported that Garang faced corruption allegations, including that he allocated 100,000 dollars to cover the cost of his son’s funeral.
He has not commented on the allegations.
The decree also removed several other senior officials, including the commissioner general of the National Revenue Authority, as part of the broader administrative changes.
Analysts say Kiir regularly makes changes to ranks in the military and government to maintain control as he contends with armed conflict and speculation about his eventual succession.
No reason was given for the ninth change in the finance minister since 2020.
-Source: (Reuters/News Agency of Nigeria NAN)
National Commission for Refugees, Migrants and Internally Displaced Persons (NCFRMI), has reiterates its commitment to effective implementation of the Global Compact for Migration.
The Honourable Federal Commissioner, NCFRMI, Hon. Dr. Tijani Aliyu Ahmed disclosed this in his opening remark at the just concluded Voluntary National Review (VNR) on the implementation of the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM) ahead of the 2026 International Migration Review Forum (IMRF).
The event which was held between February 17 and 21 at the Lagos Continental Hotel, Victoria Island Lagos, had the International Organisation for Migration, other international partners, members of the civil society, federal and state government agencies among others in attendance.
Speaking, Dr Tijani extended appreciation to the Federal Government, the United Nations Network on Migration for the sustained technical guidance, institutional support and capacity building provided to Nigeria in the implementation of the Compact.
“I equally acknowledge the invaluable support of the Resident Coordinator’s Office for strengthening system-wide coherence and coordination across the United Nations Country Team and partners in Nigeria.”
He recalled that Nigeria adopted the Global Compact for Migration following its endorsement by the United Nations General Assembly in December 2018, and “since then we have demonstrated sustained political will and institutional commitment to its implementation. As a Champion Country, Nigeria has taken deliberate steps to domesticate the principles and objectives of the GCM within our national migration governance framework.
“The recently validated revised National Migration Policy and its integrated Implementation Plan, which doubles as Nigeria’s National GCM Implementation Plan, stand as clear evidence of this alignment between global commitments and national action.”
He added that in preparation for the first IMRF in 2022, Nigeria conducted its inaugural Voluntary National Review in Lagos through a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach. “The process strengthened coordination among stakeholders and informed Nigeria’s national report, pledge and interventions at IMRF 2022. Building on that foundation, Nigeria convened a second Voluntary National Review in August 2024 in Abuja, structured around Technical Working Groups covering Labour Migration, Migration Data, Border Management, Return, Readmission and Reintegration, and Diaspora Engagement. The outcomes informed Nigeria’s engagement at the regional review and reinforced sustained national monitoring.”
This 2026 Review according to him is required to track progress since the 2024 regional review, assess implementation across the twenty-three objectives of the Compact, and consolidate national priorities, challenges and areas for improvement ahead of IMRF 2026. “Over the next three days, discussions will follow the GCM review template and align with the thematic areas of the IMRF roundtables. Breakout sessions chaired by members of the United Nations Network on Migration and supported by national thematic leads will evaluate progress, identify lessons learned and generate structured talking points to guide Nigeria’s participation at IMRF 2026.
“This consultation also provides an opportunity to stock take Nigeria’s pledges made at IMRF 2022, highlighting achievements, gaps and opportunities for renewed commitment. Furthermore, building on the evidence of impact from Nigeria’s side event at IMRF 2022, preparations are underway for a side event at IMRF 2026 to showcase practical achievements, lessons learned and pathways for strengthening regular migration channels.
“At this juncture, I would like to reiterate the unwavering commitment of the National Commission for Refugees, Migrants and Internally Displaced Persons, to the effective implementation of the Global Compact for Migration and to sustaining the whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach that underpins this national process.
“We remain deeply appreciative of the consistent support of the International Organization for Migration and other members of the United Nations Network on Migration in strengthening Nigeria’s migration governance efforts. As we prepare for IMRF 2026, we look forward to sustained technical collaboration and partnership to facilitate Nigeria’s effective engagement at the Review Forum and the successful delivery of our proposed side event. Continued cooperation will be critical in transforming commitments into tangible, evidence-based results.”
A bombing at Khadija Al-Kubra mosque on Islamabad’s outskirts killed 31 people and injured at least 169 during Friday prayers. Witnesses described scenes of chaos, with bodies and wounded lying inside the mosque as rescuers transported victims to hospitals. Pakistani authorities and leaders condemned the attack, launched investigations, and called for urgent medical assistance and blood donations.
A devastating bombing struck the Shiite mosque of Khadija Al-Kubra on the outskirts of Islamabad, Pakistan, during Friday prayers, leaving at least 31 people dead and 169 others injured, officials said. Police are investigating who wa was behind the explosion, AP reported.
Witnesses described scenes of chaos as worshippers were caught in the blast. Television footage and social media posts showed rescuers and residents rushing the wounded to nearby hospitals. Hussain Shah, who was praying in the mosque courtyard, recounted the moment of the attack. “I immediately thought that some big attack has happened,” he said. Entering the mosque, he saw bodies on the carpeted floor and people screaming for help. Shah estimated around 30 bodies inside, while many more were wounded.
Authorities have not received a claim of responsibility for the bombing, though suspicion is expected to fall on militant groups such as the Pakistani Taliban or regional affiliates of the Islamic State, which have previously targeted Shiite communities.
Militants in Pakistan often strike security forces and civilians, with recent months seeing a rise in attacks across the country. Islamabad Deputy Commissioner Irfan Memon updated the casualty numbers shortly after the initial reports. President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the attack and extended condolences to the victims’ families. “Targeting innocent civilians is a crime against humanity,” Zardari said. Sharif ordered a full investigation, saying, “Those who are responsible must be identified and punished.”
Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi urged hospitals to provide the best possible care for the wounded. Shiite leader Raja Nasir called the attack a serious failure in protecting human life and appealed for blood donations, noting that hospitals were in urgent need. The bombing occurred near an event attended by Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Islamabad, several miles from the mosque. Islamabad has previously suffered major attacks, including a 2008 bombing at the Marriott Hotel that killed 63 people. The incident comes days after multiple attacks in Balochistan by the outlawed Baloch Liberation Army, which killed roughly 50 people and prompted security forces to eliminate more than 200 militants.
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