Foreign
Analysts: Israel-Iran Conflict Exposes China’s “Limited Leverage”
China called for a ceasefire. But despite its recent history of mediation in the region, its role was limited this time.
Through the 12 days of the recent Israel-Iran conflict, China moved quickly to position itself as a potential mediator and voice of reason amid a spiralling regional crisis.
The day after Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran on June 13, Beijing reached out to both sides to express its desire for a mediated solution even as the country’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, condemned Israel’s actions as a violation of international law.
Chinese President Xi Jinping soon followed with calls for de-escalation, while at the United Nations Security Council, China joined Russia and Pakistan in calling for an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire”.
When Iran threatened to blockade the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes, Beijing was also quick to speak out.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs instead called for the “international community to step up efforts to de-escalate conflicts and prevent regional turmoil from having a greater impact on global economic development”.
Beijing’s stance throughout the conflict remained true to its longstanding noninterference approach to foreign hostilities. But experts say it did little to help shore up its ambition of becoming an influential player in the Middle East, and instead exposed the limitations of its clout in the region.
Why China was worried
Unlike some countries, and the United States in particular, China traditionally approaches foreign policy “through a lens of strategic pragmatism rather than ideological solidarity”, said Evangeline Cheng, a research associate at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute.
This approach means China will always focus on protecting its economic interests, of which it has many in the Middle East, Cheng told Al Jazeera.
China has investments in Israel’s burgeoning tech sector and its Belt and Road infrastructure project spans Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
Critically, China relies on the Middle East for more than half of its crude oil imports, and it’s the top consumer of Iranian oil. A protracted war would have disrupted its oil supplies, as would an Iranian blockade of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz – something threatened by Tehran’s parliament during the conflict.
“War and security instability not only undermines Chinese investment and trade and business… but also the oil price and gas energy security in general,” said Alam Saleh, a senior Lecturer in Iranian Studies at the Australian National University.
“Therefore, China seeks stability, and it disagrees and opposes any kind of military solution for any type of conflict and confrontations, no matter with whom,” he said.
John Gong, a professor of economics at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, told Al Jazeera that China’s top concern through the conflict was to avoid “skyrocketing oil prices” that would threaten its energy security.
Flexing diplomatic muscle, protecting economic might
Aware of China’s friendly relations with Iran and Beijing’s economic fears, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Beijing to keep Tehran from closing the Strait of Hormuz as ceasefire negotiations stumbled forward this week.
It was a brief moment of acknowledgement of Beijing’s influence, but experts say China’s overall diplomatic influence remains limited.
“China’s offer to mediate highlights its desire to be seen as a responsible global player, but its actual leverage remains limited,” Cheng said. “Without military capabilities or deep political influence in the region, and with Israel wary of Beijing’s ties to Iran, China’s role is necessarily constrained.”
To be sure, Beijing has demonstrated its ability to broker major diplomatic deals in the region. In 2023, it mediated the normalisation of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. While seen as a huge diplomatic win for China, experts say Beijing owed much of its success to fellow mediators, Oman and Iraq. China also mediated an agreement between Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah, in July 2024, under which they committed to working together on Gaza’s governance after the end of Israel’s ongoing war on the enclave.
But William Yang, a senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said the odds were stacked against China from the beginning of the latest conflict due to Israel’s wariness towards its relationship with Iran.
In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year “strategic partnership”, and Iran is an active participant in the Belt and Road project. Iran has also joined the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and this year took part in China’s “Maritime Security Belt” naval exercises.
Iran’s “resolute opposition to American hegemony” also aligns well with China’s diplomatic interests more broadly, compared with Israel’s close ties to the US, Yang said.
China’s dilemma
It’s a scenario that could be repeated in the future, he said.
“This case also reinforces the dilemma that China faces: while it wants to be viewed as a great power that is capable of mediating in major global conflicts, its close relationship with specific parties in some of the ongoing conflicts diminishes Beijing’s ability to play such a role,” Yang said.
For now, Beijing will continue to rely on the US as a security guarantor in the region, he added.
“It’s clear that China will continue to focus on deepening economic engagement with countries in the Middle East while taking advantage of the US presence in the region, which remains the primary security guarantor for regional countries,” Yang said.
“On the other hand, the US involvement in the conflict, including changing the course of the war by bombing Iranian nuclear sites, creates the condition for China to take the moral high ground in the diplomatic sphere and present itself as the more restrained, calm and responsible major power,” he said.
Aljazeera.com
The Leader of INRI Evangelical Spiritual Church, Primate Elijah Ayodele, has warned that the President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, may be stoned.
In a statement signed by his media aide, Osho Oluwatosin, Primate Ayodele noted that the president will face attacks in an Arab country and that some nations will gang up to cause chaos in America.
“Donald Trump may be attacked and stoned in an Arab country; he needs to be very careful, and I also see some nations coming together to cause chaos in the USA The president must be watchful about this.”
He made it known that the policies of the president will destroy America and that if he continues, things will not go well in the USA.
“The USA will not be the same again because of Trump’s policies. His administration needs to be careful to avoid things going otherwise in the country.
“Trump needs to do better to make the world a better place; otherwise, America will pay for the damages even after his administration”
Primate Ayodele urged Trump to do better before it’s too late, as he foresees some problems befalling the nation very soon
“Trump needs to adjust so many things before it’s too late. A problem is coming, and something will happen which won’t favour the USA. Trump needs to reorganise and look into many things to avoid putting America into jeopardy; if not, they will regret voting for him.”
South Sudan has started holding a trial for First Vice President Riek Machar, who has been sacked by his decades-long rival, President Salva Kiir, and charged with murder, treason and crimes against humanity in relation to rebellion and an attack by a militia linked with ethnic tensions.
Machar and seven others who have been charged alongside him, including Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol, were seen sitting inside a barred cage in the court on Monday during a live broadcast on national television.
Machar has been held in house arrest at his residence in the capital, Juba, for months following investigations by the government of his allies.
Earlier this month, a decree read on state radio said Kiir suspended the first vice president due to charges stemming from his alleged involvement in attacks by the White Army against federal forces in March.
The White Army, a loose band of armed youths, attacked a military base in Nasir, northeastern South Sudan, and killed more than 250 soldiers on Machar’s orders, according to the government.
Edmund Yakani, executive director of South Sudan activist group Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, told local media that the trial must be transparent and fair to build up trust in the judicial system.
He urged both leaders and their parties to “adhere to the principle of resolving political misunderstanding through dialogue” rather than violence, which would benefit no one.
Machar’s party, Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-in Opposition (SPLM/IO), has called the charges “fabricated” and said its members were arrested illegally. Machar’s lawyer on Monday said “an incompetent court” that lacks jurisdiction is judging him.
Fears of a return to ruinous civil war
After the vice president’s arrest, the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) called on all parties to exercise restraint and warned that they risked losing the “hard-won gains of the past seven years” and returning to a state of civil war.
In 2013, two years after the country gained independence from Sudan following decades of war, oil-producing South Sudan descended into a civil war.
The devastating conflict, which scarred the country and left some 400,000 people killed, pitted Kiir and his allies from the ethnic Dinka group against Machar, who is from the Nuer, the second-largest ethnic group in South Sudan.
More than four million people, or about one-third of the population, were displaced from their homes before a 2018 peace deal saw the pair form a “national unity” government.
But they never fully saw eye-to-eye, leaving the country in a state of limbo.
Both leaders held on to their armed factions that were never fully integrated and unified despite agreements, while reforms were delayed, and presidential elections were repeatedly postponed.
Armed clashes have erupted in several parts of the country over the past months, with both sides accusing each other of breaking ceasefire agreements.
Authorities in South Sudan are, in the meantime, plundering billions of dollars in public funds as the impoverished country also deals with a deepening food crisis, according to the UN.
“The country has been captured by a predatory elite that has institutionalised the systematic looting of the nation’s wealth for private gain,” the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan said last week.
South Sudan’s First Vice President Machar faces charges of treason and other serious crimes, local justice authorities said, as fears grow that the east African country could edge toward a return to civil war.
The United Nations body for human rights in South Sudan has called the government’s charges of treason against opposition leader Riek Machar “reckless.”
South Sudan’s First Vice President Machar faces charges of treason and other serious crimes, local justice authorities said Thursday, as fears grow that the east African country could edge toward a return to civil war.
Machar has been under house arrest since March after the transitional government he is a part of accused him of subversive activities against President Salva Kiir, who said Thursday that he was suspending Machar as his deputy because of the criminal allegations.
Pro-government troops have been fighting militias and other armed groups that they say are loyal to Machar, who has served as his country’s No. 2 under the terms of a delicate peace deal signed in 2018.
That agreement has not been fully implemented, with presidential elections repeatedly postponed.
In addition to treason, Machar and seven others face charges of murder, conspiracy, terrorism, destruction of public property and military assets and crimes against humanity.
The charges stem from a violent incident in March when a militia known as the White Army overran a garrison of government troops, killing its commanding officer and others. The justice ministry said in a statement Thursday that the attack in Nasir, Upper Nile state was influenced by Machar and others via ”coordinated military and political structures.”
Bringing criminal charges against Machar is likely to further destabilize South Sudan, whose government faces pressure from regional leaders to reach a political agreement that prevents a return to full-blown war.
It was not immediately clear when Machar would be presented in a courtroom. His precise whereabouts in South Sudan are unknown, and his political supporters have long called for his freedom.
Atiba Varsity Tasks New Staff, Places Premium On Academic Excellence
Tell Trump This: Primate Ayodele Sends Warning To Donald Trump In New Prophecy
